SayAlt

Haters gonna hate. It's what they do. (shrug)

You remind of the story of Noah. He was the ultimate Doomsday Prepper, wasn't he?

He also had the last laugh, too. Of course, everyone else was dead.

Name User

Noah, as in Noah's Ark? You realize that is fictional, right?

tomgoodman

After a few days afloat, Noah slapped his forehead and cried: "The manure! I never thought about that!"

Xtreme87

Then the kangaroos hopped all the way from Turkey to Australia...oh wait.

scouser17

SayAlt is not alone in touting the virtues of technical analysis, and there are many others that claim great success with this technique. Unfortunately, the facts just don't support the claims: academic research has shown that there may be short-term momentum in the market, but it does not occur dependably or persistently and commissions and taxes offset any potential gains.

The research is quite clear as to the best option...buy and hold the market. It's not an antiquated idea by any means. Regular people couldn't even do this until 1976 when Vanguard introduced the very first index fund, ever. Buy the market and take what it gives you. If you do it with inexpensive ETFs or mutual funds you will very nearly match the performance of the market and give yourself the best opportunity to meet your investment goals.

While many tout the existence of a holy grail (Alpha, or market beating returns), nobody has found it yet. Have you heard of Ken Heebman? Well, everyone thought he knew how to beat the market, right up until the point when he didn't, and now his fund is closed. You can get Beta (market returns) or you can get lucky (sorry for all the greek stuff).

To address the free-time do-it-yourself point, all I can say is that 95% of trading is done by institutional traders who have significant resources compared to regular folks (like airline pilots). So, in most cases, the person on the other side of the trade is more knowledgable about the security than you. No matter how much time you spend charting stock prices or researching fundamentals, you will almost assuredly know less than the person you are buying from/selling to. As Charley Ellis wrote, playing the market is a loser's game because the opponent is just too smart, too sophisticated, too hard working. So how do you win? Don't play...buy and hold a diversified portfolio.

When it comes to your retirement, your children's inheritance or any other long-term goal you have, why gamble? As SayAlt says, you can be a trader and speculate, or you can be an investor. As an investor, you are better off if you ignore the financial media and wall street and anyone who tells you "this time it's different" because it's not.

Charting is not the holy grail and you cannot read stock charts like approach plates. For more information, consider reading Burton Malkiel's A Random Walk Down Wall Street and/or Charles Ellis Winning the Loser's Game. You'll end up far more prepared for investing than anything you could possibly read from US News and World Report or any other financial news outlet.

BoilerUP

I note that WTI closed around $40.20/bbl yesterday, though today it is trading around $39.50/bbl.

bedrock

The reason it "is different" this time, is because there has never been so much market intervention from the govt. before. Add to that, the destruction of the US economy through globalization and bad policies.

Here is a decade long chart of the SPY. Notice how much the market has risen since the great recession. Is the economy really that great? No, it's due to market intervention and stock buybacks--which are not sustainable. The first intervention was TARP, then QE, the Operation Twist, and now stock buybacks actualized by cheap money. After each intervention, the bubble went up, but not as much as before. Inflation has gone up tremendously since 2008, and another round of intervention will drive it up more, but will inflate the market less. The market will correct severely. It is over valued by at least 30%. Built on hot air, not widespread earnings growth. The only thing propping it up are stock buybacks and the anticipation of more govt. intervention, as Europe is doing.

brianb

And the people continue to do.......................nothing. When will the land of sheep and lemmings wake up?

SpeedyVagabond

Hmmm. The world is still here. My 401K is stronger yet for the two months of purchases at lower cost. Will it correct again? I'm certain. And I'll continue to buy on the bet that historically the market will rise over time. One thing's certain. I'll never put a dime in the Royal Bank of Scotland. How's the view from the bunkers? You panicky types get wifi there?

SayAlt

Bloomberg Explains Why "Nobody Believes This Rally" | Zero Hedge