thoughts...
Ok, so pondering the numbers here, won't most, if not all, the demand for the retiring pilots leaving the majors get filled by all the existing regional guys right now, so most entering the regionals within the next year are probably going to be there awhile? Agree / Disagree?
I'm trying to roadmap to what a possible career looks like at this point, I'm 40, leaving my family small business I was running... am a MIL Rotor transition guy... wanting either Southwest or American as they are PHX based down the road... Just trying to collect some opinions from everyone... :) thanks in advance! |
Disagree. The Legacies will prefer the newer, low time guys to those that have been around forever.
Additionally, they'll always be guys that don't want to move on or can't. SkyWest has a number of First Officers that don't even want to upgrade, many with 10-15+ years seniority. |
Or the economy tanks again and the majors dont have the need to hire and they allow retirements for natural attrition to avoid furlough.
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Originally Posted by naa3e5
(Post 2958240)
Ok, so pondering the numbers here, won't most, if not all, the demand for the retiring pilots leaving the majors get filled by all the existing regional guys right now, so most entering the regionals within the next year are probably going to be there awhile? Agree / Disagree?
I'm trying to roadmap to what a possible career looks like at this point, I'm 40, leaving my family small business I was running... am a MIL Rotor transition guy... wanting either Southwest or American as they are PHX based down the road... Just trying to collect some opinions from everyone... :) thanks in advance! and if all you have is rotary time, you might want to lower your sights to a ULCC. Nothing disgraceful about only pulling down $200 K plus $30 K 401k DC as a year four captain. |
Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 2958312)
depends on what your total fixed wing time is and a number of other things. The major retirement wave is still building and won’t peak for another 3-4 years depending on which airline you are discussing. It then continues mandatory retirements at that rate for another 3-4 years and then begins to taper. Find the right regional and fly your butt off you could be competitive by the middle of the wave, perhaps even earlier. Go to one of the regionals that is starting to bank pilots because they know the attrition is coming and stay on reserve logging 25-30 hours a month...you are going to screw yourself.
and if all you have is rotary time, you might want to lower your sights to a ULCC. Nothing disgraceful about only pulling down $200 K plus $30 K 401k DC as a year four captain. |
Rough math show over the next 14 years, 40,000+ Legacy/Mainline pilots will age 65 retire. Not including those retiring for other reasons. There are only about 20,000 regional pilots...
Edit: 29000k retire in the next 9 years, 10K more in the 4 yrs after that, total of 39K over 14 years. Whooo boy... |
Originally Posted by Castle Bravo
(Post 2958415)
Rough math show over the next 14 years, 40,000+ Legacy/Mainline pilots will age 65 retire. Not including those retiring for other reasons. There are only about 20,000 regional pilots...
Edit: 29000k retire in the next 9 years, 10K more in the 4 yrs after that, total of 39K over 14 years. Whooo boy... |
Originally Posted by Tippy
(Post 2958301)
Or the economy tanks again and the majors dont have the need to hire and they allow retirements for natural attrition to avoid furlough.
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The difference in retirements over the number of available/qualified regional pilots will probably give corporate management the perfect reason to push for semi autonomous aircraft.
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 2958646)
and roughly 1200 fixed wing military aviators separate/retire or go into the Reserves annually so they can take airline jobs. Not saying times aren’t good, but don’t leave that out of your figuring. Figure 11,000 of those 29,000 airline jobs are going to them, 17,000 of the 39,000.
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