United's 270 aircraft order
 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/...ng-airbus-jets

"United's use of 50-seat jets will fall to less than 10% of its domestic departures versus about one third currently, Nocella said."

Discuss.

United's 270 aircraft order
 

Bye bye CRJ, hello ERJ.
Also, C5’s meteoric rise was short lived.
Bye bye C5/G7.

Yep - let the ERJ transitions commence again..

Where are you going to get ERJ’s? Scope is maxed out. When 700’s get converted to 550’s you can have ERJ’s on a 1 for 1 basis, but that’s it. Air Wisconsin and CommutAir may not come out of this, but SkyWest is also going to have a bunch of aircraft removed from the United system with no replacements.

United's 270 aircraft order
 

Ok :)
I’m sure you’re right. SkyWest/republic/Mesa will all shrink away into nothingness in the next 6 months.

Where did I say that? The big three will be fine. SkyWest will most likely continue to fly the current number of 70/76 seat planes, but see the CRJ get retired. Considering how many CRJ’s you guys operate for United, their retirement will shrink number of pilots that are needed. I’d expect attrition to take care of the over staffing issues, but it could be a long ride at the bottom for the new hires.

Just to be clear - the CRJ550 will stick around. Any comments re: 50 seater pertains to single class cabin only.

The million dollar question is if somehow the 65,000 MTOW for the 550 gets changed.

why would that matter?

To qualify as a 50 seat jet the seating configuration has to be 50 or less and a weight of 65,000 lbs or less. UALPA will not allow the weight to be changed. According to what I’ve read, the single class 50 seat jets are being phased out, but the 550’s are going to be around for a while.

Yea see that’s where this statement goes wrong.
OO is forecasting a doubling of the 175 fleet by the end of 2023 if I remember the earnings call correctly.
Also when a pilot group of 7000+ is in the rumor mill from the right people, I highly doubt this regional attrition like you’re thinking is coming. And that’s only for OO.
What about YX/YV who are talking growth as well?
More narrowbodies = more regional scope right?

I don’t doubt the future of SkyWest. It is an extremely well run corporate entity and you may increase flying for another partner. I am referring to reduction on the UAX side. More NB doesn’t mean more scope necessarily, at least on the United side of the house. United didn’t order a NSNB, so there are no more available 70/76 seat jets. As United NB block hours increase, the allowable UAX block hours increase as well using the current number of 70/76 seat jets. They can only fly so many hours in a day, so with the CRJ gone, the possible block hours for United will be reduced (assuming the current number of 70/76 seaters).

Doomsday clock for the CRJ200/E145 just started ticking down….

SkyWest will keep a small fleet for EAS/Prorate routes.. But we defiantly wont be flying 149 of them…

Good, they’re a nightmare for both pilots and passengers. Flying piece of garbage with overhauled engines.

I will say, I’ve had a few UA guys on my JS in the past that live in the small northern city’s of Minnesota/Wisconsin, 200 only service, that might be a little nervous today.

United's 270 aircraft order
 

Ok non-facetious & serious question….
I’m not following your logic.
You’re saying that when NB block increases, then UAX block increases. Yup, got it.
Then you’re saying when 200’s/145’s disappear, the block hours just disappear as well?
With an increase of UAX block hours & a decrease of 50-seat block hours, wouldn’t that create a 2 fold vacuum for 70/76 seat block hours?
In your hypothesized situation, there would be the exact opportunity I’m talking about for an increase in UAX 175 flying with the loss of 200//145’s and an increase in total UANB/UAX block hours.
You said it yourself… an increase in total UAX block.

I think the press release was very carefully worded to leave out the 70/76 seat birds because something is coming.

We’re also hearing this from senior UA captains riding in jumpseats.

Available UAX block hours are set according to a percentage of United NB block hours. Scope caps the number of 70/76 seat aircraft but not 50 seat jets (they are only subject to the total block hour restriction). Prior to COVID the max allowable block hours wasn’t an issue since they didn’t hit the bar with the restricted number of 70/76 seaters and the large number of 50 seaters that were operating. Now, with the removal of the 50 seat jets, their ability to hit the number will be even further restricted. The allowable block hours will increase, but with the single class 50 seater gone/severely reduced, the current 70/76 seat jets can only fly so many hours in a day, and UAX block hours actually flown will go down even though allowable hours increase.

I wouldn’t hold my breath for the relaxation of scope. The rumored additional big rj’s was to come from a NSNB order, not United pilots voting to relax scope.

I believe the "increase in Narrow body airplanes leads to an increase in 70/76 seat birds" is the language in the AA scope clause.

Yes, reduction of 50 seat planes means more block open to 70/76 but even though there are more block hours available, we've maxed out of the number of 70/76 seat aircraft in how the UA scope is written today.

Ok that makes more sense, thanks for the clarification.
Smaller regional/larger mainline presence means more jobs more to the other side of the ledger which I don’t think anyone would have a problem with.

Right, and good, I hope you guys keep the scope tight (that’s what she said), I’ve read some of your posts recently in other threads as well, you seem convinced OO will take a big hit and have overstaffing issues. Are you aware OO is hiring 200 pilots a month? Filled until December and counting. Use some common sense, something we’re unaware of is going on under the table. In typical OO management fashion we won’t hear of it until everyone else has.

the CRJ 550 is at 65000 as far as I know. Why would it need to change? Come down? It already is considered a 50 seater under the UPA

What he is alluding to if the 65000 is increased the CRJ550 is no longer allowed since we also have weight limits on scope. It would move it up into the 70/76 seat scope area.

SkyWest, Republic and Mesa being referred to as the "Big Three"; Now that is hilarious!

Glad someone gets the pun.

There still are a lot of questions. There are many non-eas communities that would be hurt by this. United could ask Skyw to do these markets with their own brand, protecting the United brand, with a code share at the hub.

I mean we do still have our own ticketing software…
Dust the cobwebs off and go to town..
But that won’t happen. They’ll drop the 145’s and let the few remaining -200’s of Skywest run the EAS game since Skywest owns the ground operations as well. 200’s won’t be completely gone for a long long time.

so why would anyone mess with it then? The only reason the CRJ 550 exists is because it fits the 50 seater scope.

UA mgmt stated very clearly in the investor call this morning that they are not planning on any scope changes. And I wouldn’t count on a SNB as today’s order clearly highlighted. The number of 70/76 seaters is fixed where it is today.

I don’t see them being ok with abandoning markets. So the other alternative is to stop sending the 175s into Reno and OKC and put them into minot and IDA as old new 737s get purchased. The reduced frequency to North Sakota markets could make them unprofitable.

I see UA taking over routes like DEN-JAX/BHM/CHS and the 175's Shifting to the mid size 50 seat routes, DEN-TUS/FAT eat... bad news for our small bases like TUS/FAT/PSP.... The 50 seat will just do the ultra small community's .. DEN-Moab/Liberal ect.....

It won’t change. There is no reason for ALPA to allow it. I was replying to another poster who suggested a possible change in the weight.

After glancing over these articles a few times, this is not large growth for UA anyways, it’s a 1 for 1 replacement with new metal that will mock Delta’s success.

The 550 is a POS airplane, mainly due to the weight limitation. If… and that is a huge IF ALPA were to ever release that scope on the weight, the 550 could be one of the best regional airplanes ever. Or even the possibility of a E-155 version… the weight is the problem.

Incorrect statement
out of the 500 new aircraft over next 5 years, 200 are growth, 300 replacement.
and with 200 50 seaters leaving, PSP, FAT, TUS are on borrowed time.

When did you get fired by SkyWest again?

And thanks for the clarification on 200 a/c growth. PSP, FAT, TUS are senior domiciles and will be just fine. It’s the same as UA with CLE, probably should be closed, but ya can’t upset those senior folks.

Except UA could give 2 sh!ts about its regional partners/bases.

Yeah sweet post buddy.

SkyWest makes decisions on SkyWest domiciles not UA. Plenty of 175 domiciles that could/should be open, plenty of CRJ domiciles that should/could be closed.

Go back to peddling the “aviate” program to clueless CFI’s to join regional airlines with dying fleets. I’m sure if you really are a “mentor” your company loves you coming into our threads to belittle us.

I can’t picture you at your United interview.

I heard UA wants OO to operate supersonic 777's by end of year.

Confirmed, we have crews going down next month to Brazil for acceptance and to bring them back to be SFO based for transpacific flights.

Not elite good bye c5/zw the 550 is here for a while

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

Well OO has 113 CRJ200’s for UA plus a few generic paint “floaters”. With UA saying ruffly 100 50 seat aircraft i foresee the majority of them being the 145xr. I wouldn't plan on OO flying more then 40-50 for UA when all is said and done. And thats on the optimistic side.. But OO has used 700’s lurking in TUS waiting for a home.. so maybe we dive into the 550 world. But doubtful… As they can lease them to G7 and go after more 175’s with the excess staffing.. but attrition is going to go through the roof soon.. but as UA puts there new aircraft online the 175 pairings are going to suffer as the 737/A320’s take the longer E175 flying.. Just my observation.. cant wait for the next OO earnings call. See how they answer the questions on this!!!