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Originally Posted by Salukidawg
(Post 2431840)
Bank on another M&A event in the next 12-24 months, so you can pretty much throw out any upgrade projections unless you are due to upgrade within that timeframe.
Alaska - 9.3B JetBlue - 7.38B Hawaiian - 2.26B Spirit - 2.71B None of these airlines compete as directly with SWA as AirTran did, and other than Alaska, none have an orderbook full of 737s. Alaska and JetBlue are really expensive. Hawaiian and Spirit are expensive for what you get. I just don't see it. AirTran merger proved that an acquisition isn't a shortcut to growth. The seniority integration won't be as easy compared to how it went during the AT merger. Many lessons have been learned since then, and I'm sure the company knows this. |
I don't see it happening either. AirTran was bought on the cheap. They were losing money and fuel was through the roof. Look at airline stock performance and price today vs then. The only thing I could see would be a fringe player like Sun Country or a minority stake in a foreign carrier.
When you think about an acquisition, think about it in the lens of an accountant, not a pilot. What do you get for the $$$? We got a lot from AirTran and knocked out a direct competitor for cheap. |
Originally Posted by e6bpilot
(Post 2432072)
I don't see it happening either. AirTran was bought on the cheap. They were losing money and fuel was through the roof. Look at airline stock performance and price today vs then. The only thing I could see would be a fringe player like Sun Country or a minority stake in a foreign carrier.
When you think about an acquisition, think about it in the lens of an accountant, not a pilot. What do you get for the $$$? We got a lot from AirTran and knocked out a direct competitor for cheap. |
Originally Posted by Salukidawg
(Post 2431840)
Bank on another M&A event in the next 12-24 months, so you can pretty much throw out any upgrade projections unless you are due to upgrade within that timeframe. I'd love to believe that the new sim building is for organic growth, but I've been here long enough to know better unfortunately and I've seen this before the AirTran acquisition and all signs point to another "merger". Even money on a JetBlue, Alaska, or Hawaiian merger in the not too distant future.
I don't see Hawaiian either as we have absolutely ZERO commonality with them. Also, the State of Hawaii would also pitch a major fit over the loss of their "home" airline as they depend on reliable interisland air transportation that's already gotten battered with the loss of Aloha. No way they'd want or allow a mainland airline to control that. The whole thing would be a PR nightmare for Southwest. I don't see JetBlue either... too expensive and incompatible with us. I could see Frontier (not sure it'd pass the DOJ smell test) maybe and possibly Spirit, though again doubtful. I don't see Sun Country - too small and barely even registering. Maybe for their aircraft? Who knows.... |
I would be hoarding cash for the downturn in the economy. That is when a sale would make sense. Bargain hunting 101.
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I'll put two beers that it will be Copa and 777 announced in the next 5 yrs
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I don't see the big 4 getting into price wars with each other, but I do see them reclaiming lost markets.
The airlines are making money hand over fist right now. In business terms, that means a war chest. The time to kill the startups will be during the next economical down turn. You hedge your loss. Buy them, or price war them into bankruptcy. The later being the more economical option if the targeted company has low cash assets, and no callateral equity. Who is that? Sun Country is not cash ripe, and they lease everything. Frontier I believe is owned by a holdings company (think shell game to strip the cash). Spirit? Not sure about their structure. So, as a bean counter what do you want? You want their market share. You don't want their debt or leased planes. You "drive them out". I think Allegiant, Frontier, Spirit, etc won't be bought, they will be the next targets of the big 4. Of the 4 who has the war chest? SWA and DAL. Just one guy's take :) |
Originally Posted by PowerShift
(Post 2432368)
I don't see the big 4 getting into price wars with each other, but I do see them reclaiming lost markets.
The airlines are making money hand over fist right now. In business terms, that means a war chest. The time to kill the startups will be during the next economical down turn. You hedge your loss. Buy them, or price war them into bankruptcy. The later being the more economical option if the targeted company has low cash assets, and no callateral equity. Who is that? Sun Country is not cash ripe, and they lease everything. Frontier I believe is owned by a holdings company (think shell game to strip the cash). Spirit? Not sure about their structure. So, as a bean counter what do you want? You want their market share. You don't want their debt or leased planes. You "drive them out". I think Allegiant, Frontier, Spirit, etc won't be bought, they will be the next targets of the big 4. Of the 4 who has the war chest? SWA and DAL. Just one guy's take :) |
Originally Posted by RJSAviator76
(Post 2400439)
For those with class dates and applying, the new-hires hitting the line and done with IOE went to BWI, MDW, OAK, MCO and it still looks like one should be able to hold anything within 2-3 months from hitting the line with the exception of ATL.
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