Holy Sh*t

Are we getting 787's too?

:eek: yeah right..

Um, yeah.....okay. Now that I don't believe. First of all WHY? Second of all HOW?

Why in the world would we need that many pilots given our orders (even with a lot of red-eyes getting added (?).

How could they possibly train that many?!

All those reasons are correct (except red eyes). Flight ops chases metrics and has for decades. In the more premium vs more hiring seesaw, more hiring is currently the manning favorite. On the bright side, maybe someone will actually pick up my giveaway

SWAPA says lines for October are projected to contain a ton of reserve trips and summer staffing for 2018 should be in positive territory. 4500 flights per day

My problem with that is that if their goal is less JA, then it doesn't matter how many pilots they have if they don't change their utilization of reserves.

Right now they will utilize a reserve to cover open time for tomorrow rather than awarding it as premium. But then when someone calls in sick tomorrow, they're up a creek. They split to cover and end up with a junk trip that nobody will pick up even at premium because it doesn't pay anything. So they JA.

Until they decide to hang on to a few reserves and accept that some days those reserves may not fly - that they will act as an insurance policy in the event of sick calls or irregular ops - then it doesn't matter how many pilots they hire. Their behavior will still result in JAs.


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1300+ for 2018 is vastly different from what the union put out in the monthly update email at the beginning of this month.

Update on 2017 & 2018 Pilot hiring numbers
Last count for 2017 - 786
2017 - Expecting 884 total
2018 - Estimating slightly below 700

Although I flew with a guy who told me new hires were being told they should upgrade in about 7 yrs.

Just went to training. Was told number had changed to roughly 1000 in 2018

Bring 'em on! Maybe the hiring next yr will be for growing Phx!

I can see upgrade eventually getting to the 7-8 yr range once you get through the backlog of people hired 2007-8 range. After that we only hired roughly 1500 in the next 7-8 years. So it'll drop assuming growth and hiring stays the same. Another recession and "poof"....

Eh. I don't put much stock in upgrade forecasts even during significant hiring. In 1999 and 2000 the legacies all hired 100 pilots per month right up until 9/11. Then they furloughed all of those pilots and then some. There are pilots getting hired at SWA today who worked for those legacies pre 9/11... and there are pilots getting hired at SWA today who hadn't even taken their first flying lesson by 9/11. We all view this profession through the lens of our personal and professional experience.

As a 9/11 furloughee I can tell you a decade long upgrade seems pretty quick to me. But then again I've spent the lions share of the last twenty two years as a first officer at a variety of operators. So what's another decade between friends? [emoji6]


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