I remember being in the training center with a few pilots lamenting how long NH training was--and then two of them cracked up that it was less than a third of any of their carrier deployments. They were happy to note it was the longest "deployment" that they would ever have to suffer again.

The last "deployment" is one most everyone enjoys is captain upgrade. It's only a few weeks and results in a 40% pay increase. :)

I'm looking forward to upgrade too! That said, I don't see it happening anytime too soon. I think it's running about ten years right now. At this moment I'm just happy to be on second year pay!

Some things to keep in mind:

- Your current company-wide seniority in percentage and the rate of change.

- Bottom captain upgrades which are currently going at 60-61% company-wide seniority.

- Current and forecast hiring.

- Number of retirements.

People upgrading now have indeed waited about 10 years. I truly don’t think that’ll be the case for the people hired in this current wave unless they choose not to upgrade or the economy takes a sharp turn south.

I love myseniority.com but I DO wish that you had the ability to show “fast growth until (date) then 1%” or something like that.

Because the predictions on there really aren’t accurate during this period of significant hiring. Nor will the significant hiring last forever. At some point they will reach the number of pilots they want on the list and go back to hiring to cover attrition.


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I hear ya, but the guy that runs it and created it has been doing it strictly as a service to the pilot group so we can’t complain to much.

No, absolutely. I know he has been doing it out of the kindness of his heart (just like the guy who made the CrewWeb app) and doesn’t charge for it. Not complaining about the product. The minute we stop hiring it will be significantly more accurate.

Just whining that without knowing how many pilots the company wants when the music stops, it’s really not possible to make upgrade estimates.


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I think if one looked at how many pilots were on property in 1993 and 2018 and divide that by 25 yrs, you would get a good average of yearly growth. That time frame has seen a few up and down cycles, as well as growth spurts.

Please share that formula. For those that don't know. :)

Last time I was in the training center, the number 12000+ pilots was being tossed around by some management folks. What they wouldn’t say was how long it would take to get there.

With 60% being the magic number...

900 new hires per year + scheduled pilot retirements though 2021 = 2014 hires reaching 60% in the first half of 2021.

I think 2015-2016 hires will reach 60% in the first half of 2022 as Age 65 retirements accelerate in 2021 onward.

This is also not taking into account any early-outs.

There's my napkin math. The question is... being a commuter Zap, would you take the first available upgrade?