I could hear the out roar right now if they suggested 3 reserve shifts. Those that don't want to be in reserve would be that much longer.
But you're right not only do we need them, they are coming.

So how junior / senior is lax going to be you guys think? I’m hoping for mdw (asap) curious if people will be moving out west

Very senior at the top, and very junior on the bottom.

They could, they just wouldn’t have a reserve shift to cover it. No doubt the company is taking a wait and see attitude who will eventually replace Weaks. The luxury of time is on their side.

I saw some numbers in the magazine, somewhere around 100 CAs and 100 FOs currently live in SoCal area. I figure after that first 100, it'll be somewhat junior based on cost of living and the fact that LAX (and associated airports) isn't any easier of a commute than LAS and it's prohibitively expensive to move out there.

Early "best guess" I've heard tossed around by people who have been here a while is it'll go junior by mid-2019.

But that's still just a guess.

Am I reading this right? What’s preventing the company from doing red eyes is our union president?

I don't think it's gonna go senior at all. I talked to some SoCal locals and they don't get excited to bid LAX at all. There are multiple reason, but one uniform complaint is traffic. If you live in Ontario or closer to SAN for example, it's faster to fly to LAS that fight the traffic to LAX. Also the whole ETOPS thing, extra training every year, reduced flexibility of schedule in a small base, base lock, etc. On top of that, I heard there are some people that own a place in LAS just to pay Nevada taxes while living in SoCal. Those will continue commuting. I predict a lot of new hires and junior captains going there against their will. It's just a subjective prediction of a guy who has been wrong many times before.

It will be our most junior base in short order. The union newsletter says just 38/37 ish capt/fo’s in the la basin. A few of those have houses in Vegas for tax reasons. I can see the Orange County and Temecula guys driving but doubt San Diego guys will for long. Ballpark 150 pilots will want LAX as a permanent base and I understand it will be a good sized base in a couple years (500+). It will draw from LAS and OAK making them more junior also. I’ve been told OAK will not shrink and will have equal ETOPS pilots as LAX.

So would new hires be base locked if they get LAX/OAK out of indoc given the ETOPS training??

No, if it’s involuntary there is no base lock. 6 months if you volunteer so be careful not to volunteer.