MAX mitigation?
 

"United Airlines is getting creative in its plans to maintain capacity as the grounding of the Boeing 737 Max enters its fifth month. The Chicago-based carrier said Tuesday it has signed an agreement to buy 19 used Boeing 737-700 aircraft."

https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/17/busin...nes/index.html

Interesting how UAL, who operates a wide variety of airframes, chooses to fill the gap created by the MAX delays with used 737-700s and SWA didn't. UAL likely had a variety of reasons, allocated training slots, parts, etc., but one of them could have been to deny its domestic rival, SWA, the opportunity to acquire the increasingly scarce -700s that represent the bulk of their fleet. I'd be curious to know why SWA elected to delay its hiring and upgrade instead of hedging its bets, securing these aircraft for their ambitious growth plans. SW is facing intense competition from all sides, especially the ever-expanding ULCCs rolling into their markets, I would've imagined it would have taken a more proactive approach. No one can accurately project the MAX's return to service. Given Boeing's handling of the debacle so far, is SW willing to continue its present course of hoping for the best?

LUV to be a fly on the Dallas boardroom wall when this topic comes up

^^^^^^

Clearly, the good ole boy network is riding it out.

I'm going with management arrogance... "The FAA wouldn't dare ground the a/c for any length of time given it affects SWA's growth plans.."

Honestly surprised the grounding is still in affect.. I would have thought the FAA would have caved to Boeing and SWA by now.

You sure do like our forums. Offer still stands. You're welcome on the Inter island jumpseat any day.

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And you continue to respond.. Much more fun than our page.

I'd rather wait 20 minutes for the next HA flight

Ya'll take too long, or you're delayed 1-5hrs...either way I'll get there with HA guaranteed.

First rumor I’ve heard elsewhere as to the origin of UA’s used 700s: you! Ex AirTran birds specifically. Are any of them coming off lease?

I’m skeptical, but who knows. That could certainly explain how UA got so many in one batch. But, I’ve also heard that the first couple of birds are coming from an airline I’ve never heard of.

Rode SWA from HNL-OGG in June. On time and a nice -800 with plenty of room. HA flight from OGG-LIH was 25 min late and a cramped old 717 whose ticket price was 2x as much. Least HA left on time for our LIH-HNL flight...price 3x as much and still a cramped old 717. Can’t wait til we get the Max back in the air and start doing more of the inter-island.

Locals I talked to were happy SWA was there. Not much nice to say about HA...to each his own though.

Awe muffin...I imagine the 30k + monthly interisland pax we've absorbed is having an effect on y'all but keep the chin up. And though I've only done 4 days of inter island, yet to see a delay.

Just like the jumpseat, you're welcome on our forums anytime!

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Are you trying to make him late for work?

The -700 is soooo last decade: 175 seats is the future of this airline! :p

Seriously, I think if GK decided more used -700s were the answer, they'd have more used -700s. We've acquired more than 80 of 'em in recent years (on top of the 40 fAT -700s), but that pipeline seemed to wind down sometime around late 2017ish. Hawaii was mostly where all the new capacity was going to go this year, and more -700s wouldn't really help that. It's pretty much Max's or nothing for us going forward. :o

Well that’s depressingly problematic.


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Eeeee-yep, but realistically what is a more viable option? Waiting 5+ years for our first A320NEO? Waiting >1 year to field our first A220...an airplane still in it's teething stage and, sorry guys, but just not compelling enough vs. a cheap used -700 to warrant a 2nd fleet type just yet. Even if the regulators and politicos fiddle-fart around for another year, waiting for the MAX is likely still our best bet...unsatisfying as that may seem...

This is bigger than just the FAA, Boeing, and SWA. Every aviation regulating body in the world is looking into this. The FAA leads the world in decisions related to aviation regulations. If they screw up again no one will trust them, and we'll lose all credibility in the industry.

Wonder if pulling some of those WN -300s from the desert would help their situation. Our company has bought a bunch of them.
Not sure if they’re still under southwests certificate after parking them.

At least to temporarily boost their capacity.

Or buying Frontier/JetBlue/Spirit/Hawaiian and be done with it?

How would that help the situation when those airlines still have schedule obligations to fulfill themselves?
Not to mention any code sharing limitations in the contract until a merger is finalized and agreed upon by both unions...
Southwest has made comments in the recent past about not being interested in aquiring, and instead growing organically... If they really wanted a bandaid to tide them over for the year or so it takes to get the max's back in the air, they should buy a Sun Country or a Swift. Those airlines have the number of Airplanes to replace what Southwest is short, pilot groups that are starving for change (= likely a quicker merger/negotiations) and some ancillary benefits like gaining bases, experienced crews, etc. All the while minimizing any "non-organic growth."

^^^^this^^^^

Fear, but also conflicting agendas and interests. European EASA will be more inclined to protect Airbus, who has lost $30B on the A-380, through demands such as demanding MAX simulator training for all, knowing full well the worldwide supply of MAX simulators is still limited. SW's 10000 pilots alone would be a crippling backlog.

Those airline(s) become Southwest Airlines over time, so not sure about "schedule obligations" argument is even relevant in that case. As far as Wall Street is concerned, at least there would be a plan for the future should MAX not work out. It divests the fleet from a single type to multiple types and it kills a competitor(s). Sun Country isn't really a competitor and Swift doesn't even fly NG's.

The question is.....how long before an acquisition covers the SWA schedule. Wouldn’t the regulatory approval take longer or just as long as getting the MAX back?

That's the point.

If they'd prefer to grow organically, especially with our current economy, then the only reason for an acquisition is to save face and lessen the blow from the max groundings... The problem is, how would it work? If customers buy Southwest tickets but another airline flys the passengers then they're code sharing - are there contractual limitations on that? How would the unions respond?

Whoever they buy will have a schedule to fulfill in the short term. Sure, eventually those shedules will be satisfied and the airlines will operate as one, but again, if this is a band aid situation how does an acquisition benefit Southwest if they can't get the merger done before the Max comes back on line?

The Max isn't going anywhere. It'll fly, haters will hate, and passengers won't care.

For the sake of US manufacturing, I hope Boeing turns this around. Best case it will take a while and it's anyone's guess what the final tab will amount to. As far as SW, 2017 probably seems like decades ago to GK. Once the cinderella, the shiny new MAX quickly turned from the beaming bride to the unfaithful trollop that left you at the alter with a suspicious rash.

Given the uncertain timeline, one might imagine SW hoarding whatever capacity they can garner. They've done it before. Keep in mind SW planned to keep the -300s through 2025, until forced to prematurely and reluctantly retire hundreds in 2016-2017, leaving a sizable gap in capacity. Coincidentally, at the same time, UAL had just cancelled their order for last -700 NGs off the line, leaving Boeing stuck with 60 NGs, to be offered at fire sale prices. Assumption was that SW would logically scoop them up to backfill the unplanned void created by the Classic fleet retirement. Nope, SW was still holding out for the bride. Hindsight being 20/20, I wonder if they regret that decision as SW has now been forced to defer the retirement of their older -700s in order to maintain capacity.

Why they recently allowed UAL to secure what is likely a very scarce number of -700s is a mystery. On the surface, denying growth resources to SW appears to be a wise move on the part of UAL. SW responds by deferring classes and upgrades(??) Airlines seldom succeed playing catch up or shrinking to profitability; ULCCs and majors smell blood in the water coming from their largest domestic rival. The once aggressive, nimble SW is now largest domestic carrier and showing traditional signs of being a bloated, slow 'Legacy creep', more focused on Shark Week and social agendas than market share, sustainability and growth opportunities

Once universally recognized as the gold standard, arrogance and greed have caused Boeing to stumble badly and even it's fiercest advocates are turning away, openly questioning Boeing's leadership and resolve. Hoping for the best at this point is probably not the best defensive strategy.

Popcorn anyone?

We hope so, but... think what the delays and lack of growth will do to LUV stock. This is the time to be growing like weed and capture as much of the market share as we can. Everyone else is. We're not because we hitched our wagon to a single airframe and are being left in the dust. To make matters worse, the public perception of this airplane is bad, really bad. Thank you news networks and the social media!

A lot of people stand to lose A LOT of money due to our inaction and stubbornness. A shuffle at the top would be the first step something is changing, and if we see that, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if we announced the acquisition of one of those airlines.

Interesting times for sure! I'm looking forward to seeing how it all shakes out.

It's not a great economy to be a buyer right now, but kind of a perfect storm of events/situations to force a hand.

My hope is that this actually turns into a positive for us in the long run, be it by acquiring fire sale priced MAXes, a screaming deal on the future MOM/797, a sweetheart deal on A220s, or a merger with another airline.

Of course, 346 people are no longer with us and their families are destroyed thanks to Boeing & SWA stretching a 60s airplane into the 2010s & Ethiopian pilots who lacked some fundamental airmanship.

Speaking of squandered opportunities for scarce resources, 737s aren't the only consideration. Market share, cancellation rates, etc, aside, competition for qualified pilots is fierce among airlines. Fall SW pilot initial and upgrade deferrals could have been avoided by grabbing the very airframes UAL acquired. Wonder if UAL is deferring classes (unlikely).

I would assume many of those deferred SW poolies might be swimming over to UAL or elsewhere. Why continue to hope for an airline that already has 8-10 year upgrades and would rather turn away candidates vs. buying 19 used airframes to continue its growth agenda? The most attractive feature to most SW guys is the opportunity for overtime income opportunity; I'm hearing that's dried up too due to lack of airframes. So now that limited pool of applicants can expect further deferrals, in the hope of flying outdated narrow body equipment domestically, rough schedules, long upgrades, for less pay. Good news is the upcoming contract negotiation which, based on past experience, is expected to drag on for years.

Hmmm

Speaking of stretches, including SWA in the cause is quite a stretch.

19 used -700’s that won’t be ready until December anyway wouldn’t have continued the “growth agenda”. SWA is down 60 planes by then and was already hiring for growth. Find a hobby.

Like others have pointed out before, although the max will fly again, this whole event will make the entire "grounding" of a fleet more acceptable in the future. If nothing else, the argument of having all your "eggs" in one basket as a cost savings feature, might also be a specific risk going forward, no matter which model it is.

just food for thought, but to keep things in perspective- SWA is not boeing's biggest customer, United is. This could have had an impact on why United was able to get their hands on those 700's instead of Southwest or anyone else.

I'm not sure I follow your logic or your need for a cryptic response. Those deferred newhire classes would've been just getting on line in December, Just in time for those 19 -700s. Per your statement, SW will be down 60 aircraft, wouldn't having 19 airframes be a good thing? No one knows how much longer this will go on

There’s nothing cryptic about it. SWA is overmanned now. Overmanned before the MAX was grounded. They’d be overmanned with 19 more planes. The MAX may be back within a month or so of those 19 planes entering service anyway. Not buying those planes has nothing to do with not having a growth agenda. You don’t even know the details of where those planes are coming from or whether SWA tried to get them.

Stop the pointless speculation and find a better hobby.

https://m.imgur.com/gallery/c4jt321

There’s nothing wrong! Everything is fine!
😰

"Pointless speculation...Find a better hobby"?

Again with the hobby! "Dammit, that's twice!" (Cheesy Top Gun ATC guy)

Nope, you're right, nothing cryptic. :rolleyes:

Just curious, as you're on here too, shouldn't you "find a better hobby" or were you anointed official hall monitor? :D

FYI, the purpose of a forum is the open exchange of thoughts and ideas. Labelling inputs you disagree with as 'pointless speculation' and dispatching people to "find a better hobby"(x2) isn't exactly in the spirit of open dialogue. Why so defensive? Relax Peacock, your airline will not be harmed by pointless speculation. Your argument, while still difficult to follow, is one you're entitled to and we can agree to disagree . I'll work on finding a better hobby; perhaps can you work on your anger.

Peace.

I’ll bite, I want to know that the folks in charge have a plan too.

I’d like to believe they have a short term plan to continue to grow the enterprise during the Max grounding. I’d like to believe they have a plan B in the event the Max never comes back. I’d like to believe that we will be appropriately manned if/when the Max returns to service. I hope that none of these plans include a merger or acquisition.

I don’t think it’s unreasonable to discuss what the plan is. Right now we are dead in the water, unable to grow and unable to continue fleet replacement.

Just because he doesn’t work for WN, doesn’t make his thoughts on the topic any less valid. I am a lifelong avgeek long before being an avgeek was cool and I have engaged in similar discussions about dozens of airlines that I’ve never worked for.

These are questions worth asking whether you work at WN or not.

No anger here. If you can’t decipher the plain writing, there’s nothing I can do for you.

We are overmanned and have been for a while....now for two big IFs, we can scoop up a bunch of maxes and if the public wants to fly it we can expand really fast by being overstaffed now. I think company will play it safe and not go too all in for cheap Max’s , I think they will get compensated either through a cheaper deal in the future or a bigger airframe.

GK being conservative I think would look into at least getting another fleet program up and running even if we don’t follow through with a purchase, that way if it’s further delayed or public really doesn’t forget we can recover, it will have another benefit of putting Boeing on notice. Whatever we save with single fleet type takes a massive cut when something like this happens, and this isn’t the first time 737 has been grounded for a while.

How long to get Airbus program up and running? I know we will fly it like a 300 but we can surely do it in less than a year.

Spot on fellow avgeek. We're all in this together, just the hired help. Any one of us could easily be on the street, working elsewhere. Seemed straightforward enough to me, not sure what the fuss is about.

Too many pilots, not enough planes, expensive, but no growth. No one knows when the Max will come back or how.

The sky is not falling.
Everyone here seems to have a lot of permanent solutions to a temporary problem.
The max will fly again.
Southwest will survive and prosper through this.
An economic slowdown or another hull loss scares me a lot more than this temporary crisis.

So would most agree that SWA isn't going anywhere? Dual meaning intended.

I kid, I kid!

Great company, great peeps.