Definitely possible. Too bad nobody actually knows until weeks later.

If that is true, he won't hold it for long. Someone else will bid into LAX and displace his star pronto. Plenty of junior folks that would love to Lance.

In any case, that's good for everyone. When Lance starts going junior, that means the cheese has finally started moving and it's a good predictor of a big shift as long as these upgrades make at least 50 percent of their predicted numbers.

I’m a month after that and I’d be mid-30’s in LA. High 20’s in LAS and low 50’s for LAS-E.

Meanwhile…in DEN I’m around 150. The senior FO’s don’t ever leave…which is fine if you’re wanting to upgrade at 100%…makes it harder to hit the Lance numbers though.

So I’m a 11-15 guy and just looked up the updated myseniority.com which says I’d be 17% in LAX. Im 360 numbers from junior CA which is in OAK. In LAS, I’d be 12% (non-ETOPS).

Those three bases (LAS being a subset) are super junior on the FO side. I have a feeling LAS will convert to full ETOPS soon.

Commuting Cappy. AM reserve. Briefs WOCL disrupted crew. Reroute hanging beef. 16 work days a month. 20 calendar days per month after commuting. Junior Vacay. Seniority Stagnation. Flies with favorite Cappy every trip. Gives greatest crew briefing in the history of Aviation. Stays after to complete the MEL. Waits for industry leading hotel van. Buys the crew some drinks. Wake up. Rinse. Repeat.

OR

In base Senior FO. Premium floweth from the Heavens. Elects not to have WOCL disrupted unless by choice. 11-12 days per month or up to whatever whenever your troth floweth over. Great vacay horsepower. Flies with favorite FO every trip. Ignores greatest crew briefing in the history of Aviation. Waits for the MEL to be completed. Calls for industry leading hotel van. Clinks mugs with the cappy for a couple beers. Wake up. Rinse. Repeat.

I’ll take option 2 until I can drive to work in the left seat.

^^^^^^^
This is me as well. Would I love to be a Captain - sure. However, not enough to flush my quality of life down the toilet.

Upgrading to commute at Southwest has suck written all over it. No commutable lines. Work your ass off till you hit fatigue every week. I'll be sitting high on the FO seat until I see a better life in the Left seat and drive to work. Bypassing till then...

Ditto. West Coast commute to Reserve. Hard, hard pass.

I’ve been commuting to reserve for a little over a month. The cons outweigh the pros, but it’s not as bad as I feared it would be. (That said, we haven’t the holiday loads or winter weather yet). Costs are higher than I expected. Commuter hotels, drinks/meals for the crew from time to time. Uber.

Time at home is significantly less than before. Part of that is my preference for AMs when commuting. I leave the house around 14:30 on my last day off to catch a 16:30 flight so that I get into base in time for about 8 hours of sleep before my RAP begins. So 2.5 days off at home per week is about all I really can hope for. Less on the overlap due to lack of bidding power. (You know it’s rough when you are considering scheduling that colonoscopy you’ve been putting off, just to get a little extra time off.) 🤣

Reserve is busy. Haven’t had to call in fatigued yet, but there have been some exhausting days. These definitely aren’t the kinds of trips/lines I was bidding six months ago. If it weren’t for the fact that they send you back to the school house to downgrade, I’d probably bid back for another year until I could hold it in base. After a month at the training center I don’t want to go back anytime soon.

That said, all the reasons why I wanted to upgrade still exist. Still concerned about age 67 after the new congress. Still concerned about being in the left seat in the event of a merger or recession resulting in stagnation. Still want to be paid Captain rates for sick leave, STD, LTD if it were to become necessary. And I wasn’t a varsity player with premium etc. Pretty much just flew my line, maybe added a day or two here and there. So the pay raise is noticeable.

Feel free to DM me if you have specific questions about what things have been like to help you make your decision.