RJSAviator76

All captains have been recalled from ExTO. 500 FO's remain out for the time being, though likely not for very long.

Big order for MAX 7's. Sure, some -700's will be retired, but I sincerely doubt it'll go 1 for 1. Gary is not the one who likes to cede market share. It's been rather interesting watching us expand into places that the legacies have historically only flown RJ's to. Thanks to our scope, all this flying is done by the SWAPA pilots, not the cheapest outsourced labor in our colors.

Big questions:

1) ETOPS incurs a 6-month lock and upgrading into ETOPS ties you down for 6 months. How many guys will commute from the East Coast or the Midwest if we're in the upgrade swing to get locked to the West Coast for 6 months vs. wait until they can hold a non-ETOPS slot so they can come back? I could see people coming to Lance on the West Coast, but not sure if they'd take straight upgrade. What says the peanut gallery?

2) Will Eeyore upgrade in less than 10 years on the property?

hoover

Its 6 bid periods not 6 months. They snuck that one in there because we usually have a bid every month but it's not required.
there is something like 945 FOs bypassing. I'm willing to bet a beer that of that group a huge portion is FAT and on the east coast. How long will they hold out, who knows. After this last pause I dont know if that changes peoples minds about when to upgrade. If they try to balance the crews ASAP then I'll upgrade in a yr. That's 6 yrs for me for upgrade. If people still bypass.
we also have a few retirements that will further skew the balance.
if it were me I'd run some upgrades this fall to try and balance it a bit more before recalling and hiring. Then recall everyone by Feb and be hiring in March with 500 upgrades next yr.
They had big plans for all the extra pilots until the plandemic hit. I think those plans are still in play and we'll need everyone we can get in the next few yrs.

ZapBrannigan

Good catch on the 6 bid periods. I hadn't considered a hesitantly to upgrade due to the ETOPS lock. Good point. Might re-shuffle my own bid with that in mind.

Realistically, I try and imagine how big they really want to be. The number I have heard floating around was around 12,000 pilots. But there's never a time frame attached to it. I could see us getting back to 10,000 pilots over the next 3 or 4 years. So around 2.5% per year growth maybe?

Then I look at where upgrades were before Covid, and where I think they are going. As Hoover said there are ~ 1000 copilots senior to the most junior Captain who were bypassing for whatever reason. I'm guessing that a large number of that thousand just got religion and changed their bid. Maybe they aren't all willing to do OAK ETOPS, but might have cast a larger net. So I'm thinking that instead of upgrade realistically happening at around 60%, then maybe it's closer to 55%.

So Eeyore thinks it's still going to be 2024-2025 at the earliest for me. Safely past the 10 year mark when someone will owe me some Texas bbq and a couple adult beverages.


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at6d

I’m in year six. Year 13 as a 121 FO but who’s counting, right?

The upgrade times are also relative to when we got hired—the AT merger being a big factor and the years WN didn’t hire and all that.

For a 2015 hire, we were told to expect ten years. If the thousand still bypass, maybe it will come down. I’m still thinking ten. We will see.

e6bpilot

My crystal ball says the same thing.

There will be a time period when bypassers who got burned by COVID decide to take first available. That will temporarily winnow down that number.

I am still banking on 10 years, but that is some serious tea leaf reading. Unless things are really churning, I will hold out for non LAX or OAK as will a lot of FOs in the central and eastern time zones who value QOL.

hoover

Our new hire class was told 12k pilots and 1k planes by 2022. Obviously that wont happen but it seemed they were trying for it before covid et al.
we basically had/will have 800 cpts retiring since Sept 2020 through 2021. That's a lot to hire for and upgrade. Plus ETOPS on the max will be done and the Hawaii invasion will be in full force.
if they could sell tickets in forgein currency they be going into Canada and south of the border pretty hard also.
With the big boys and their widebodies sitting idle and the massive training churn they'll have for the next yr we could seriously put a dent in their near international in the next few yrs.
then come to stop expansion wise and boost the stock price before Gary exits the building.
That's what I'd do if I was king.

Psycho18th

Just playing with the myseniority site as a 43 yr old summer ‘17 hire. Assuming all EXTO back at the 2 yr mark, getting to 55% seniority seems all based on growth. Looks like 12 years at 2% and 14 at 0%. I like the domicile 40 minutes from my house, so that would probably be a big factor depending on base demographics changes over those 12+ years. Does that all sound accurate?

RJSAviator76

Upgrades have traditionally appeared to dance around 60-62% seniority and almost exclusively ended up in OAK. The more senior guys may choose to lance at the western bases and try to pick up captain trips back East so they aren’t commuting.

Eeyore, pretty sure you’re buying....

Salukidawg

You’re correct that upgrade had been running at about 60%. However, I agree with Zap that after the long Covid pause, those that were on the fence about continuing to bypass upgrade will likely now go at their first opportunity. Typically in the past before 2010 or so, upgrade was about 55%. I expect as we try to go back to that historically more productive manning model that you will see upgrade fall back into that range again. I think upgrade will remain at around a decade on property for at least the next 3-4 years until we really start to hit the big retirement years around 2025 or so and then drop to around the 6-8 year range.

at6d

I’m at 45%. Within five years 750 captains retire, within ten it jumps to 2150.

According to myseniority.com to reach 60% with ExTO back in one year and 2% growth, I’m looking at around September 2025. If I did it right.

Ten years.