Using those same numbers (back in 1 year, and 2% growth) I show:

60% in Dec 2023 (10 years)
55% in Jul 2025 (11.5 years)
50% in Sept 2026 (12.5 years)

I think having all of the EXTOs back by Sept (one year) might be a little ambitious. So at 2 years, (which is probably a little pessimistic - maybe we should split the difference) the numbers look like:

60% in Feb 2024 (10 years)
55% in Sep 2025 (11.5 years)
50% in Jan 2027 (13 years)

With zero growth - if SWAPA is able to persuade the company to use its pilots more efficiently and offer open time and premium as opposed to big hiring numbers.

60% in Oct 2024 (10.5 years)
55% in May 2026 (12.5 years)
50% in Jan 2028 (14 years)

So I'm thinking 12-13 years is probably going to be reasonably close provided SWAPA has some success encouraging the company to be more efficient and there are no other black swan events.


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Well 12 years will still get me almost decade in the left seat before age 65. Does make my early retirement plans less realistic. ExTO sure has taught me I don’t need the extra money much. No other real impetus to upgrade in my mind.

Yeah agree. Would like the time to squirrel away more money for retirement just so my wife doesn't need to push me down the stairs at some point to be able to pay the rent.


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FWIW....

was shooting the sh!t with the CP waiting for my dhd. He said the new DEN gates and MX hangar open up in March. Base will go from 225 flts/day to over 400. Will need an extra 800 pilots in DEN alone.

Said he was expecting us to be hiring and upgrading by Fall. Obv dependent on Rona restrictions and keeping the Max from being a continual paperweight.

Ops agent in DEN the other day told us half of those gates were going to Spirit. I'm sure that the CP was more in the know, but crazy isn't it how in the dark we really all are? Just along for the ride.


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On a recent webinar, SWA Pilot Hiring reps indicated no hiring for 2021.

So.....who knows....

That’s incorrect. Southwest is getting virtually all of the new gates (16) I believe. I think maybe 5 more are going to be common use, so maybe Spirit can use one or two of those. Southwest made big investments in Denver and they don’t plan to share with anyone, least of all Spirit.

Obviously we are buying Spirit then

Then I'd bet on hiring soon!

yeah, probably same month American and Delta resume off the street hiring