I know it's purely a guessing game at this point, but any thoughts as to when we reach a deal? It's hard to read the tea leaves with the little info available.
And NO, I'm not succumbing to contract fatigue. Just trying to plan a kitchen remodel with the retro check!

 

Sometime after bankruptcy

 

well get an offer October

 

I have heard that.

 

Which October?

 

I believe we already got an offer and it was canned.

 

2022 I believe is what Mr. “I’m not an operations guy” said. His initials are CEO.

 

I see what you did there.

 

I love you man! LOL

 

It depends.

If we want or are willing to settle for a typically lagging SWAPA contract, we can have that in a couple of months. The only delay would be the road shows and voting period.

If we want an industry-leading contract, it is likely going to take a while. It will require pilots to demonstrate uncharacteristic patience and persistence. We are going up against the company, who doesn't need to convince 10,000+ people on the management side to stay the course. They are also guided by extremely smart and experienced consultants like FordHarrison. Under the counsel of their soulless robo-experts, the company is smart enough to leech out just enough progress into our dispute to stave off an impasse, hoping that we succumb to negotiation fatigue and settle for a contract, like the Alaska pilots did, that further degrades our profession and makes our own, and our families' lives, more difficult going forward.

This is a war. We have made several errors so far in executing the battle plan. The most critical error to date was waiting to file for mediation until very late in the game. We have also demonstrated a willingness to "help out pilots by helping out the company" several times in this negotiating cycle. The latest episode was the LRF agreement. While there may be short-term gain for our pilots in that and the other agreements, the overall message it sends to the mediator and the NMB is that we still have juice in us left to be squeezed - we're still amenable to "progress."

Additionally, it is likely, as evidenced by the fact that we have already disclosed that we have compromised on at least a couple of key issues that our NC, directed by our BOD, may believe it still needs to make further moves toward the company's position. Movement toward the company's position is NOT required by the RLA and demonstrates progress in our dispute. Progress is the opposite of "impasse," which is what our dispute must arrive at for it be released from mediation.

Given all of the above:

1. That we don't appear to be anywhere near an impasse,
2. That we waited an excessive amount of time to file for mediation, and
3. Presumably, most of us want an industry-leading contract

We are likely more than a year away from the company capitulating to our demands for an industry-leading contract unless something changes in the tone and tenor of our dispute where an impasse develops before then. I say "more than a year" because referencing my post on the "FA's have an AIP" thread, we won't even exceed the average time spent in mediation of all NMB disputes over the last several years until August 2024. August 2024 will be right in the middle of the election campaign season, so who knows how that might impact the NMB's orientation toward our dispute? It could accelerate a release or it could delay a release. I really don't know. It's very hard to say. Regardless, we would have been much better off filing for mediation a year or more earlier than we did.