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Cyio 09-30-2024 09:33 AM


Originally Posted by REF 5 (Post 3840765)
All this talk about how bad the CA flying is, yet with this schedule release, no changes. Most of the update that AW put out discussed CA and its connectivity problems. Have you noticed that SWAPA president hasn’t said anything about investors day? As of matter of fact none of the SWAPA’s leadership other than ATL reps, really hasn’t said much. Something of this magnitude, the biggest change in SWA I would argue ever and not a peep from SWAPA other than the typical how bad management is.

I don’t think SWA want’s to give up any part of CA. They know if they pull back, the network carriers will fill the void and SWA will never get it back. All the other carriers right size their markets with appropriate gauge of aircraft. Obviously a huge void that SWA has. SWAPA has the best section 1 restrictions in the industry by far. It’s pretty explicit that SWAPA and SWA have to agree to any changes to section 1. The current SWA leadership or next( most likely the next) is/has/will discuss this. It doesn’t make any sense that this schedule didn’t tweak anything on the west coast. Basically, according to AW, the weakest part of the network. Just seems to be a piece of puzzle still missing.

Which schedule are you referring to? I wouldn't expect big changes right away, but more in line with next year's flying. I could be wrong, however, obviously.

e6bpilot 09-30-2024 09:48 AM


Originally Posted by REF 5 (Post 3840765)
All this talk about how bad the CA flying is, yet with this schedule release, no changes. Most of the update that AW put out discussed CA and its connectivity problems. Have you noticed that SWAPA president hasn’t said anything about investors day? As of matter of fact none of the SWAPA’s leadership other than ATL reps, really hasn’t said much. Something of this magnitude, the biggest change in SWA I would argue ever and not a peep from SWAPA other than the typical how bad management is.

I don’t think SWA want’s to give up any part of CA. They know if they pull back, the network carriers will fill the void and SWA will never get it back. All the other carriers right size their markets with appropriate gauge of aircraft. Obviously a huge void that SWA has. SWAPA has the best section 1 restrictions in the industry by far. It’s pretty explicit that SWAPA and SWA have to agree to any changes to section 1. The current SWA leadership or next( most likely the next) is/has/will discuss this. It doesn’t make any sense that this schedule didn’t tweak anything on the west coast. Basically, according to AW, the weakest part of the network. Just seems to be a piece of puzzle still missing.

I agree that they won't cede an inch in California. They spent years fighting to maintain their dominance there and it is super lucrative as there is just so much money and business in California. I think the point of the comments is that California no longer has a strong intra California business flyer market that SWA used to depend on for higher yield tickets pre Covid. They are going to have to reconfigure the network to maximize yield or start competing for different customers. That's way above my level of airline knowledge, though. A retreat of SWA in California would be a huge signal of impending financial declines and other airlines would quickly fill the void.

Investor day had a lot going on. Most of it was signaling as part of the impending proxy war. The ATL cuts are predictable and that decision wasn't made recently. Just look at the scale and distance of the BNA crew base without an 800 pound gorilla breathing down their neck. ATL is a dead man walking. I am truly sorry to the people affected there, but it is what it is, unfortunately.

REF 5 09-30-2024 10:43 AM


Originally Posted by e6bpilot (Post 3840805)
I agree that they won't cede an inch in California. They spent years fighting to maintain their dominance there and it is super lucrative as there is just so much money and business in California. I think the point of the comments is that California no longer has a strong intra California business flyer market that SWA used to depend on for higher yield tickets pre Covid. They are going to have to reconfigure the network to maximize yield or start competing for different customers. That's way above my level of airline knowledge, though. A retreat of SWA in California would be a huge signal of impending financial declines and other airlines would quickly fill the void.

Investor day had a lot going on. Most of it was signaling as part of the impending proxy war. The ATL cuts are predictable and that decision wasn't made recently. Just look at the scale and distance of the BNA crew base without an 800 pound gorilla breathing down their neck. ATL is a dead man walking. I am truly sorry to the people affected there, but it is what it is, unfortunately.

Yields are not just the product you produce but also the supply in it. The supply is just as important. All the airlines have cut capacity in the third and fourth quarter and RASM is already improving. The only way they keep it(CA) is to take capacity down but yet offer enough frequency to stay competitive. You can only do that with a smaller aircraft. Right sizing the market. A big hole SWA doesn’t have.

As far as ATL, the new CEO at SWA will finish what BJ started. It sucks.

e6bpilot 09-30-2024 10:47 AM


Originally Posted by REF 5 (Post 3840831)
Yields are not just the product you produce but also the supply in it. The supply is just as important. All the airlines have cut capacity in the third and fourth quarter and RASM is already improving. The only way they keep it(CA) is to take capacity down but yet offer enough frequency to stay competitive. You can only do that with a smaller aircraft. Right sizing the market. A big hole SWA doesn’t have.

As far as ATL, the new CEO at SWA will finish what BJ started. It sucks.

Maybe I was talking past you but I agree. I think SWAs answer in the meantime will be to put larger gauge aircraft and to take the L on load factor in order to maintain their market share. Eventually this will all unwind and normalize. The industry has too much capacity right now.

Grease5667 09-30-2024 01:34 PM

Regardless of who ends up running the ship, the list will stagnate for a long time. Unless things change unexpectedly, this airline will furlough eventually. The group doesnt have the desire for a pay cut to keep people on property, especially since they are still running the 500 hour wonder new hire courses.

e6bpilot 09-30-2024 02:42 PM


Originally Posted by Grease5667 (Post 3840884)
Regardless of who ends up running the ship, the list will stagnate for a long time. Unless things change unexpectedly, this airline will furlough eventually. The group doesnt have the desire for a pay cut to keep people on property, especially since they are still running the 500 hour wonder new hire courses.

Furlough? Nah. Stagnate? Absolutely.

Grease5667 09-30-2024 04:49 PM


Originally Posted by e6bpilot (Post 3840895)
Furlough? Nah. Stagnate? Absolutely.

The only reason they haven't yet is because it would effectively end their 225 pipeine and put a major wrench into the AQP Program. It's coming.

hoover 10-01-2024 05:27 AM


Originally Posted by Grease5667 (Post 3840920)
The only reason they haven't yet is because it would effectively end their 225 pipeine and put a major wrench into the AQP Program. It's coming.

its not cost effective to furlough unless you're going to do it for yrs. The latest podcast said only D225 guys next yr. I dont think they meant to say it but it was said. Idk the program and the promises but it would be a great time for them to get some more experience somewhere else but still have the opportunity to come to SW when we need them rather than keep bringing them in.

mulcher 10-01-2024 05:43 AM


Originally Posted by Grease5667 (Post 3840920)
The only reason they haven't yet is because it would effectively end their 225 pipeine and put a major wrench into the AQP Program. It's coming.

The FAA told them do AQP now or forget about it. That’s the only reason D225 are still coming.

REF 5 10-01-2024 06:40 AM

Regardless of the AQP stuff, technically we are overmanned. AW has said as much during investors day last week. In every cost cutting move that had to do with labor, "except for pilots" was thrown around a lot. If it wasn't for the red eyes that are coming, I think we would be discussing something else. Almost all other work groups will be flat to down head count wise. Only the FA's and pilots are status quo at the moment.

The new CEO may revisit it when the time comes. Our CBA staffing model is heavily weighted on planned duty periods per month. We have a hard number on that . So we'll see.


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