With the loss of 88 airframes, and the most recent fleet plan SWA released, what do upgrades look like for the next 5 years or so?

 

They look the same as they did 2 years ago because there hasn't been a loss of 88 airframes. A loss would mean a fleet reduction and that isn't happening.

Gary continued, "Our objectives with respect to today's fleet announcement are to efficiently and aggressively manage our invested capital, shift the mix of new aircraft to the MAX, and replace more than 100 Boeing 717s and Boeing 737s being retired over the next three years with more economical aircraft. To accomplish that and still maintain a relatively flat fleet, we will augment our Boeing deliveries with pre-owned aircraft.

I believe the industry term is up-gauging. SWA is up-gauging the fleet to the tune of 2552 additional revenue generating seats available for sale with the replacement of the 717.

 

OMG just talked to a guy who is a JR narrowbody ATL CA commuting to RSV. Gets a full 7 days a month at home and sometimes has to drive 6+ hours. Could be a very senior 737 or ER FO especially in NYC getting literally almost 3 times more days off for only a small decrease in pay which would be a wash with the occasional GS but just "likes being CA".

 

All that makes sense but how does the -800 fit into the equation?

There's a huge difference between flat fleet and flat capacity while upgouging is occuring. The -800 allows a significant number of additional pax to be flown with zero additional pilots. Which MAX version is it, the 700 or 800 equivalent?

 

I know Southwest doesn't have quite as senior pilot group as the others, but still curious about the upgrade time. If a younger fella, say 30, got hired in the next few years, what estimate would the upgrade be? Im assuming 15yr plus?

 

How do you keep the fleet flat and the capacity flat while up gauging? Up gauging by its very nature means substituting larger aircraft for smaller ones, right? Most of the Max options are for the Max 8 while it was recently announced that SWA will be launch customer for the Max 7 as well.

As a component of its AirTran integration, fleet modernization initiatives, and careful capital management, the Company has revised its aircraft delivery schedule. For 2014, five Boeing 737-700 firm orders have been converted to 737-800s, five options were exercised for -800 deliveries from Boeing, and five options to purchase Boeing Next Generation (NG) aircraft were relinquished. Five options in 2015 were also relinquished. Separately, the Company has agreed to purchase ten pre-owned 737-700s for delivery in 2014 and 2015. Twelve 737NG options held by the Company in 2014 and 2015, as well as 29 options in 2017 and 2018, were converted to 737 MAX options and deferred beyond 2024. The Company also converted 30 Boeing 737NG firm orders in 2017 and 2018 to MAX firm orders and deferred them to 2019 through 2021.

 

I really don't think we will be hiring for a few years but if we were to hire, upgrades would be a long way out. The most junior on the list will definitely be in the right seat for most of their career. Is 15 yr plus possible? It's already here so I would imagine a new hire would be longer than that.

 

The only realistic way to look at it is from a zero growth perspective. From that perspective it would be 15 years plus. I will submit that if SWA has 15 + years of zero growth there will be substantially larger repercussions than when will I be able to upgrade.

 

Shoelu,

By the end of 2014 SWA will be down by nearly 50 B-717's. From the numbers you just posted, I only see a max of 20 737's coming by that time. Is that right, or am I missing something?

 

To accomplish that and still maintain a relatively flat fleet, we will augment our Boeing deliveries with pre-owned aircraft.

There are 114 deliveries available through 2015.

There are tables that I do not know how to paste without formatting errors. Here's the article.
Southwest Airlines Returns Value To Shareholders - Yahoo! Finance