Of the 2800 pilots, 1000 will retire in the next 20 years. So 64% is younger than 45. Hired today you will still have 1800 pilots ahead of you in 20 years. Compared to AA where 11500 of 15000 (so 3500 pilots ahead of you in 20 years) will retire in the next 20, so 23% is younger than 45, Also, most of the top 15% will be WB cap (about 30% are on the WB fleet), and we don't have those. With the assumption that people bid NB Cap over WB FO (and I think that isn't true):
If you get hired at AA today, and they don't grow, in 20 years you should have about 1300 above you on the NB list, and about 9200 below you, so relative seniority about 10% on the NB fleet. To get to that same RS at NK we would have to grow to 18000 pilots....... What do think is more likely, AA staying the same size or NK becoming the biggest carrier in the US?

Of course, the flip side is that if there is a recession any time soon and the bottom 20% get furloughed, that’s a lot more people at AA, and if you start over there you’ll very likely be in that lower 20%.

Will that happen. Three years ago who could have predicted COVID. Other than those working with it in the lab I mean, and clearly ven they didn’t take the threat seriously enough…

Seems like with all the attrition upgrades are really going to stagnate here. I like it here and fully planned on staying but having second thoughts now.

I am as well. The thought of us struggling now to hire and keep people. Now add the next five years of the legacies hiring 800+ a year.. I don’t see how we are going to be able to staff 300 aircraft. The upgrade times here are going up and at the legacies going down.


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What was the attrition rate before the 2018 contract was signed? The airline industry has made me bipolar! One year I am ecstatic and the next I am at rock bottom.

rock bottom huh? Seems a bit dramatic.

It's sarcasm. Read all the APC topic headlines. Whatever airline you are working at is the worst and you need to give serious thoughts about leaving is the general theme.

Stagnate…. I don’t think that means what you think it means.

9/11… 2008 financial crisis/furlough… Age 65…. Those were stagnant times.

We are hiring. We are upgrading. We are growing. We are heading into contract negotiations in an environment where other airlines are doing the same thing, instead of industry stagnation where they can cry about fuel prices or a few bad quarters knowing pilots have few other options.

Could things be better? Always. But some of you spook pretty easily. I wish you the best of luck in your upcoming interview(s)

you can upgrade FO’s if you can’t keep enough to staff the current airline let alone growth. No upgrades means stagnation except for the bottom quarter of the list which will just be a revolving door.

A big amount of the attrition last year were people who came here because they had a conditional offer from a legacy but got put in a pool. They were never going to stay.

Other people made the decision to leave based on their own situation. Others will do that this year, and that’s ok too.

But what you’re proposing is that we will soon (and perpetually) have is 7-800 pilots a year jumping ship, no upgrades, and rejected deliveries or parked aircraft.

That’s called hyperbole. Let’s hit double digit attrition first (the 40 a month for the entire year as someone claimed) with no company response and then I’ll join your doomsday club and say you are correct.

I’ve been wrong before.