Ahh, fair point. I should have said make it to OE, not finish....

I'm curious to this as well. I got the CJO phone call from Spirit last month right as things started to go downhill and was placed in the pool. Now last week I find myself on furlough from my current company (corporate). Part of me is wanting to call Miramar and let them know I can be in one of the few remaining classes ASAP if a spot opens up, as I am a SoFla local. I would think that there are many wanting to trade their class date for a spot in the pool, so that they won't go from the top of their seniority list to the bottom of another. I know they much have bigger fish to fry other than 'lil minnow me swimming in the pool though.

I don't want to come off naive of what's coming in up in October. I just feel like I'm in career no-mans-land and wishful thinking of getting on board and a seniority number.

Do it. It can't hurt. Tell them you lost your job. Maybe they'll feel sorry for you and put you in a class.

Just checked the vacancy bid, classes of April 13 and 20 already had people not show up from the 8 per class there was supposed to be, so I would say you could easily replace somebody... I'm sure it will keep happening... call them

Probably also depends if you’ve submitted your background check info yet.

hmmm my friend had a late Nov class date and was done OE in early-mid Feb:confused:

I guess those in the pool will just have to hope no furlough in Sept then(along with everyone else), if they get offered a class before Sept 31...why can’t it just be easy LOL!

There is zero chance the MAX becomes a different type. That has never even been considered.

Indeed. There are some miraculous "same type rating" aircraft out there. Only way the max would end up with one is for optics.

Agreed, which is not the same as saying it WON’T happen. A whole lot of things recently appear to have been done for optics.

"Optics" that would create an inordinate amount of work for the regulators and be cost prohibitive for the operators.

IOW, zero chance of that happening.

Any news on training for those in the pool? When the next class may be and how many people will be in it 8?

The company has no idea whether there will be furloughs in Oct, much less when the next training class will be.

They haven't even figured out how to bring me back from military leave, let alone start a new class. I get the fact that I'm coming back at a less than ideal time, but I wouldn't be surprised if they offered me an alternative job.

are you good at serving beverages, dealing with customers, and complaining if a flight is 6 minutes longer than planned? If so, I found your alternative job.

2021 or 2022...

Cant tell if this is flame bait or naivety. Literally every airline is most likely going to furlough this fall. I like what I’m seeing around town and hope it will continue without mass fear when the inevitable spike in cases comes. However, even if we can get two thirds of the fleet flying this summer at near full loads that’s a long way off from hiring and will mean furloughs this fall almost certainly. New hire classes are at least a year or more off I’m afraid.

If we have 2/3rds of the the fleet flying at near full loads by the end of the summer, that positive of a trend would definitely not indicate furloughs, and may even have us reconsider pushing deliveries.

We aren’t waiting out the economy, we are waiting out groupthink and mass psychology. Similar to that scene in the movie Jaws when everyone is on the beach afraid to go swimming until the first people decide to risk it.

I remember 2007 the big scare of toys, tools, personal products, etc. from Chy-na possibly having lead paint. That Xmas season was a disaster for retailers, and there was the big “Buy American” push. Been to Harbor Freight lately?

Consumer confidence is difficult to predict, but as soon as people see friends/family/neighbors on a cheap holiday without catching the ‘Rona the pendulum can start swinging the other way quick.

The next few weeks should give some insight as people start poking their heads out and the dreaded 2nd wave doesn’t materialize.

i got my flight booked to paradise in the next couple of weeks. So I can tell my friends and family in I got the case of the ‘Rona or not.

I completely agree. I feel like I’ve been one of the only few to tell everyone to “chill the F out” When things when to virtually 0. Same happened in China and it was coming back.

Now we are seeing very good signs here, this past week, and I don’t think it’s going to slow down.

The fact TC said we are adding flying in June that they didn’t even have on their radar 30 days ago tells you a hell of a lot about where things are headed.

318K screened yesterday. ORD is even busier this morning on my commute home then yesterday. Won’t be shocked at all to have it climb above 350k at some point this weekend.

Have friends at all of the Big 3. All are adding flying in June. AA is even taking some 73s back out if storage.

There’s talk of us doing 200-400 a day by July. That wouldn’t shock me in the slightest. I think July 4 - Labor Day is going to surprise a lot of the negative “the world is over along with our career” types.

I would be shocked if we don't furlough, but numbers are the numbers. As you detailed, 300k + yesterday is two milestones. Crossing 300k and in the process exceeding 10% of last year. The upward trend percentage-wise is accelerating. That said, it is a holiday, which can explain the two-day 30% spike in throughput, but the percentages of growth relative to same day last year are even higher now.

It appears to me the rebound will continue to compound as it has, and 200-400 by July is pretty accurate imo. I'd guess with our model we'll be closer to 400 and looking for real estate in constrained markets by August. Stock price will explode if Spirit becomes a predator.

I was hoping they would let me run the brothel that was exposed in a crashpad in IAH

I don’t disagree on most points and am hoping for the best but 2/3 of our previous flying doesn’t require 3/3 of our pilots going into the school year which is already the slowest time.

Only if you promise to pistol whip the clientele when they get unruly

But it costs money to downgrade and upgrade the CAs so the company would need to forecast crew on the street for 6-9 months otherwise a furlough is a bit cost prohibitive. I'd be happy with 2/3 and growth.

6-9 months from Oct 1 sounds exactly like summer 2021... right about when most are hoping things show a semblance of being normal.

The downside of having a single type rating fleet in lean times is that training costs of furloughing are also much less than at an airline where furloughs mean that people currently flying 787s must be retrained to fly A220s.

The upside, however, is that if NK management tried to aggressively go after domestic market share they could probably be successful since the costs for the Big Three can only go up as they downsize and furlough their cheapest and most productive personnel. That appears to be the tactic WN intends to try, despite being constrained by an older fleet and the continued grounding of the MAX.

You’re assuming 2/3 capacity and then plateau.

If we are at 2/3 and mostly full (as was the example used in the post I replying to) by the end of the summer, from where we are today that trend would show we would be adding back routes and frequencies at too steady of a clip into the winter to justify a furlough. Even if we were slightly over staffed at that point, VIL would be a better option.

Bleeding money is a concern, but we also don’t want to hinder our own recovery with a short term furlough if the trend is very positive.

These next few weeks should reveal a lot

To downgrade is only a PC from the right seat. Not much cost there. Then to go back to the left later on, a requal is easy, again, not much cost there. It’s not like you’d need IOE again or a full initial type course

Actually, if you downgrade, and subsequently upgrade again, you’ll likely need a line check before being cut loose. At my last airline they required a minimum of like 10 hours and a line check to requal as a Captain.

Each requal program is unique to each airline and approved by the POI. I honestly don’t know what ours is, but it’s still not a huge cost, especially when weighed against the cost of being super fat on CA. If we furlough, and I think we will, I can almost guarantee you’ll see downgrades. Hopefully I’m wrong, but I’ve seen this too many times before

The max being grounded right now has helped wn a lot, they don’t have to pay for them.


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Except they own 34 of them that were already in service...

And they hired to crew them and others they expected to have right now.

I think Boeing compensated us for those being grounded via the payout to SWA.

Yup. We were fat on crews going into this COVID fiasco. Not good....