But but but “bags fly free” on SWA

more like “Feebird”

it's been a while, how many guys were furloughed with NWA & DAL?, and SWA & Airtran? and UAL & CAL?

Don’t know about the others, but the UAL/CAL merger happened while thousands were already furloughed. The same could happen again. Both companies shrink to meet demand, furlough, then merge. Good times.

That's the way of the industry. Lots of pilots are saying no mergers will happen, because nobody has any money, but the biggest mergers have happened in downturns. When everything goes south, the rich don't panic, they buy. I predict we are about to see another big round of consolidation in the industry, particularly in the LCC/ULCC sector.

I think that’s a foregone conclusion. Just a matter of when imoho, and once one dance partner is picked I think others will step out and look for partners of their own.

I’d expect to see more on the regional side in the way of consolidation or elimination as well. Ual for example has one airline flying a few 145’s, one a few 550’s, and one a few 200’s. That flying could easily be absorbed by the big 3 regionals, merged into one company, or phased out as the 50 seat jets reach their age limits.

“Worldstar”


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Let’s keep the animal tails and adopt the callsign “Airwolf”.

I’m also a fan of grey, zip up jumpsuits with black and red patches/ flair for the new uniform.

I wouldn't even try to guess who. This is 2020 so anything is possible. I's say likely merger candidates are SWA, UAL, AA grabbing an LCC/ULCC or two LCC/ULCCs merging with each other. But hey, maybe a new Dougweiser will emerge where an LCC buys a legacy again.

More like SAVE buys AA..lol

AA is dead on the vine. There is literally no coming back from their debt absent Ch11.

It’ll either shock us all or be completely obvious. I don’t know which. Probably both when all is said and done. I don’t know who’s hooking up at the dance, but a couple of someones will be going home with someone new before the night is over. Just a matter of time imo.

What happened to the November schedule?
 

Has anyone else noticed that all the flying for the first three weeks of November has disappeared from open time?

“Home of the Bear Fare”

People loading up schedules and swapping out week 4 to get Thanksgiving off. Nothing out of the ordinary.

Yep tried to pick up 5 trips the other day and got beat out for all of them

Didn’t the company offer a hybrid line in November? A relief line kinda thing? Think I remember the email stating the first part of November had extremely soft demand and the back half of November very strong demand. My guess it’s as Simple as the company building way less parings early in the month versus the later half. Less pairings means less a opentime. I would assume December will look very similar

they offer it every month.

You need Bot 2.0...Super Fast, works well, lasts long long time.

Yup. They basically said exactly that. At least one of the union emails did a couple weeks ago. The last 2 weeks of Nov and Dec would feel like regular holiday schedules, but both the first part of Nov/Dec would be slowish.

Had my first 321 100% with 1 jump seater up front last night. FLL looked like a zoo. Good stuff.

Didn’t they offer more RLL than normal?

Eh I’ve tried that one and it’s okay. I would suggest either FastFingers2000 or GravyTrain5000 it’s definitely worth the extra few bucks.

Most companies that go through Chapter 11 do live to tell about it.

Which is why I said they will need to file CH11 or they are dead on the vine. The amazing part is people actually still think AA gets on the other side of this without filing Ch11.

Can you give me a brief synopsis on why this is a certainty? I can provide you with cash on hand and loan maturation dates if you’d like. If you simply believe that demand will stay flat for another year, then I’ll withdraw, otherwise please show your work.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Sure. I’ll show my work.

Stop being naive and open your eyes. I get you support your airline, great. So I’m not going to get into your interpretation of the numbers vs what most analysts are saying. Besides, this is a Spirit forum and not the AA side.

AA reminds me of that scene in Boyz in da Hood where someone proclaimed what they would do for some “blow or rock”

“You got some PPP, you got some loans, man I’ll suck..”

But since this is a Spirit sub forum I’ll add that I hope AA
doesn’t file Ch11. AA loses money competing with Spirit and you have to subsidize your basic economy and fare matching with business and international, which you no longer have. Filing Ch11 will clean up the books and perhaps allow you to be more competitive in markets vs undercutting at a loss. So yes, I hope you don’t file, however AA is no stranger to the protections available to them.

https://i.ibb.co/h9vW8wf/44-BCB20-C-...6-B6-AE1-F.jpghttps://ibb.

losing $4.80 per share per quarter and your share price is down to $11.23.

Your total market cap is only $5.7 billion. How long do you Figure that can go on?

god dam it you’re right, forgot we were the only airline losing money with a diminishing share price right now.

Spirit has $2 billion in long term debt. How much does AA have?

Not that the street is always 100% correct, but you don't have to look far to find multiple analysts stating that AA is facing bankruptcy. The most common number that I read is that at $8 billion cash on hand they'll be forced to file. I don't think anyone is wishing such on AA but in a conversation of reality facts must be faced.

It doesn’t look like you have any facts to back up your feelings.

I hope AA can pull this off but like others I’m skeptical too.

FACTS have been stated over and over, on this forum and probably 20+ financial pieces written by analysts. Copy and paste to a forum of these facts isn’t what makes it a likely reality, the numbers themselves do. People can deny it all they want, it seems that denying what is in front of our face is a going trend these days, but the facts are facts, copy and pasted on a forum or not.

I’ve said I hope AA doesn’t file CH11 because I don’t want Spirit competing against their clean(er) balance sheet and I don’t want the downward contractual pressure, but what I want and what the numbers suggest are not one in the same.

So speaking of finances. Shouldn’t Spirit be releasing 3Q results soon?

There can't be a Frontier merger happening because they aren't discussing it in the Frontier sub section

Today 4pm Eastern

thanks!
—————————————————————

I believe 4:10 eastern.

Hopefully they didn’t lose more than expected and more importantly, would love to see that cash burn between $2mil and $3mil a day. That would be slightly better than their revised estimate of a burn of $3-4mil a day; they stated burn would be at the lower end of that scale.

As soon as the market closes:

Obviously a senior captain if he considers a million dollars a day difference to be “slightly better.” ;)

Burn for Q3 was $2.3m a day....great news based on previous estimates of $3-4m a day. The bleeding is slowing and they expect $2m a day for Q4...hopefully that will improve too