JCBA during a recession.
 

With all indicators pointing to a impending recession, does anybody want to guess what contract negotiations with the new Spirit and Frontier pilot group will look like during a recession?

Will management try to use that as an excuse to low ball our pay rates while they still boast how we are “recession proof”?

Or will they recognize that they need pilots here and try to keep wages and benefits competitive.

I wouldn't jump to conclusions on f9 just yet...something tells me B6 isn't done playing hardball...either way I think attrition and demand will still be "strong". It will however be a great tool for whoever is managing whatever airline to drag feet and pretend there's no problems

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B6 is done. They can keep trying but he board clearly spoke. And if they somehow accomplish a hostile bid the government will squash it. F9 is our dancing partner, And I’m very thankful for that. Negotiations will be a fight but they always are. Being the Nations 5th largest airline and attrition being what it is, we can, and should score nothing less than a great contract.

Frontier management (Franke) will play the hardest of hardball regardless of the economic climate. It’s going to be a fight. I’ve said it a few times, Spirit pilots need to get off their butts in this fight and join their F9 counterparts and fight for a JCBA worth having. Apathy will not get it done.

What in God's name are you trying to say?

Whatever you say brother.. can't wait to face an interrogation from the chief pilots office because we block out late...and than again the next week for calling in sick...be careful what you wish for...it's out of our hands at this point and and I want what's best for the guys that fly the yellow planes. But I'm certainly not "thankful" that our "dance" is chaperoned by Bill Franke

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Exactly! Filler…

I don’t call out sick unless I’m sick. So not worried about that. Know what I’m worried about ? After gate divestitures, and SLI, getting absolutely slaughtered seniority wise. Highly unlikely my QOL would even be in the same stratosphere as it is now with a B6 hookup. I think, as many do , the F9 marriage will be much more seamless and more advantageous long term. I’d suggest You be careful what you wish for. Getting absorbed by B6 could be a huge mess. I’d rather grow organically but I’m thrilled that F9 Is the choice of the 2. And if the merger is such a bad idea then why does B6 wanna kill it so bad.

Over 400 spirit pilots went on strike during the deepest recession since the 30s for a contract against indigo. Hopefully the combined pilot group will have the balls to do the same if necessary.

So ALPA merger language only applies to F9 not B6...got it...if I were a better I'd guess you weren't here in 2010...God help us all

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B6 doesn't want to kill our merger, B6 wants our planes and pilots to try and be a competitive airline in America. It has more to do with them succeeding and less to do with f9/nk failing



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ha great argument. The shear size and level seniority B6 has at MCO and FLL would not bode well for us. I’m 35% in base. Merger policy would no doubt TRY and be fair but there is zero chance many of us would keep the same QOL. The plug at JetBlue in FLL is what 11 years on property or so? 9 years here and top 35%. MCO is similarly senior for them.
now throw in divestitures and route overlap mainly on the east coast the DOJ would surely axe and then what happens to relative seniority ?

F9 doesn’t have a ton of folks on the east coast and with the addition of PHX, TPA I can’t see a ton of folks from either airline chomping at
the bit to run to each other’s bases, keeping many peoples seat, seniority, relatively intact.

and In addition to the bloodbath a B6 digestion could be, I’ll firmly stand by my belief that the smart business move for long term growth potential is with an F9 marriage. Im
happy the Board voted 9-0 against.

Quoted so I wouldn’t have to type it.

Not sure why more people can’t see this.

Complete speculation. Nothing more

[QUOTE=dualinput;3419147]Complete speculation. Nothing more[/QU

Where it’ll remain speculative because it ain’t happening. Thankfully!

[QUOTE=FlyGuy2002;3419151]This isn’t over. My employee opinion withheld, as a share holder I want my $33. I’m sure many others feel the same

[QUOTE=dualinput;3419157]isn’t over? Now that’s some good speculation right there .


nah . It’s over. And I dont want my $33. Ill
make way more in 10 years with twice the shares of ULCC

and keep in mind many investors will lose out at $33..

Ted said on the earnings call that even if they went with JB, it would likely be at least two years before anyone even got their $33/share

If the deal had been accepted, stock price would have gone up, regardless of when JetBlue paid the $33 dollars. We’d be sitting on probably $30 right now.

[QUOTE=FlyGuy2002;3419165]Take your $33 and reinvest in a ULCC with no major competition, that would be even greater return on your investment. As a shareholder it’s a no brainer.

ted said during the earnings call there is no pilot shortage and there is no issue with pay.

expect to continue to be the lowest paid a320 operator. Truly see Allegiant surpassing f9/nk jcba pay rates. Mark this post.

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but yeah even those new start up's are paying more than NK! Kinda sad for us.

Walked out on Franke once before. Will gladly do it again if needed.

Amen brother!

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[QUOTE=FlyGuy2002;3419165]Who holds an airline stock for 10 years. Airlines are a trade. Very few people holding long term make money bc the next downturn is always around the corner.

Give me my chance…….. tomorrow?

Just don’t walk-in on Franke…

Which start up is making more than NK?

Avelo

…….

Avelo. First year only, but we all know it's about the drama.

except over there you can actually upgrade in under 4 years and your movement as a captain isn't 10 vacancies a month.

Oh but wait we're totally gonna upgrade 24 a month, or 48, or whatever other made up number.

We're literally upgrading 10 a month because of attrition and our CEO has the audacity to say there's no shortage and no issue with our pay/CBA.

The cognitive dissonance is palpable. Sorry Ted, time to go.

I thought I read in the breeze chat that the “Airbus” 220 Pay rate was paying more than Spirits Airbus rate.

Of course he says there’s no issue with the pay/CBA. They play the game just like ALPA does. I’d be shocked if he said otherwise.

In regard to route overlap, why is it always assumed that the flying would be reduced?
If the separate airlines are selling the seats before merger seems the combined airline would be able to sell the same number combined, maybe more.

Because JetBlue said they would divest Spirit flights from the NE in the new “enhanced” offer and they would likely have to divest from south Florida as well. It’s not that they want to, it’s that the government will make them and they have offered to divest already to appease them

Reviving this thread speculating a possible recession in the near future. With the big 3 locking in their contracts for the next 4 years the pilot group is insured barring a furlough. American is buckling down and paying off their debts. United is expanding rapidly and Delta is the usual with their balanced approach.

What will happen to our JCBA if recession hits? B6 will feel the hurt if there is a drop in demand and cash flow during the integration. B6 has already spent a significant portion of their assets and taken in liabilities in acquiring NK.

Future proofing is next to impossible since no one has a crystal ball, however one can weigh the risk of staying with NK/B6 and staying for the merger or jumping ship to a big 3 who have locked in their contracts. Thanks for your input.

1) Why is there a recession coming? Hasn't that been the chicken little call the last few years?
2) If you think the "Big 3 locking in their contracts" means anything in a recession, you haven't been paying attention or were around in the years 2000-2012.

Sorry but history has shown over and over that whoever is on top today, is the first to be sent to the bottom tomorrow, there is no "future proofing". Welcome to the airlines, it isnt all what some have seen the last 5 years, there is an ugly side to it. Not trying to be nasty to you, but there are way too many pilots who think the last 5 years is the "norm" and are not ready to see what the airlines really are outside of this swan even we have seen the last 5 years.

Ain’t that the truth. Even companies who were top dog for decades sometimes just disappear.

https://i.ibb.co/bW0F7St/IMG-6360.jpg

JPMorgan just revised some stuff saying no recession in 2023. Take with whatever amount of salt you want but that's what was published recently. I'm simply saying it's not all doom and gloom right now on Wall St.