Spirit had 79 planes in 2015 and made $317M
Spirit had 88 planes in 2016 and made $264M
Spirit had 112 planes in 2017 and made $420M
Spirit had 128 planes in 2018 and made $155M
Spirit had 145 planes in 2019 and made $335M

Spirit had 213 planes in 2024 and lost $1.23B

If Spirit's problem is scale then why was it profitable when it was smaller and losing money now that is has scale?

American has scale and it lost money in Q1. Southwest has scale and lost $465M in 2024.

The problem is that Spirit isn't offering a product people want to pay enough for to cover its costs. It has nothing to do with scale nor credit cards. Spirit was profitable in the past without either of those.

You can’t say “the problem is that Spirit isn't offering a product people want to pay enough for” and simultaneously deny that ULCCs have a scale problem. People will pay more for a larger network: business travelers and others with the sort of discretionary income that can fund Spirit’s higher-than-2015 costs require frequency and the operational resilience that comes with a larger operation.

Furthermore, the attractiveness of the credit card (and thus its value to the company) is tied to the airline’s scale. What good are points if all I can use them for is a twice-weekly redeye to MCO? People want cards that enable them to actually go places. You need scale for that.

Fact is, the airline graveyard is full of small carriers who tried to offer a nice product without network/scale. You can offer me all the niceties in the world but if I can’t count on going where I want to go (direct) and when I want to go, I’ll choose the other guy.

Spot on……..

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, friendlypilot hates every airline aside from United.

BUT he does have a point. Scale without a plan just wastes money; however, if we accomplish scale by eliminating a competitor via a merger (I.e. F9 or any ULCC), then it has merit.

scale has merit because it gives you a firmer seat at the table.

But anyone who thinks just being bigger solves all the problems, or their existing problems magically go away, is foolish.

I definitely agree with that. If any merger happens, there has to be a plan. But I doubt either party would agree to it if it wasn’t beneficial.

“Da Plane, Da Plane!”
Aren’t “planes” for carpenters?

Spirit was profitable when they were smaller, because they focused their resources on passenger dense routes to vacation and leisure travel destinations. Aircraft utilization was significantly better prior to Ted's attempt to improve on-time performance by inflating block times and adding longer turn times. They strayed too far from their core operating principles.

Ted made it worse, but that all started under Fornaro. He was the one that lowered utilization to increase operational reliability. It made Spirit a better airline and a better place to work, but the profitability started to take a hit at that point and it's been downhill ever since. The Baldanza operating principles that made Spirit successful were also not sustainable in the long term.