I nominate this for quote of the day.

 

Even with NAI, ME3, ULCCs, etc United has made over $10B in profits in the last 3 years. Also 50+ brand new fuel efficient 787s, 777s, 737 MAX all coming on line in 2018 and 2019, hubs being rebanked, more connecting traffic through hubs, its only getting better for United and its pilots.

Spirit pilots getting 40% raise. So much for them being ULCC.

Its even better that we have a contract negotiation open during record profits and massive tax cuts for corporations. United has so much money now its buying back it own stock, which can always be sold later to generate cash if needed.

I'm not worried one bit about United.

 

My concern with Spirit is their 17% annual growth rate.

On the flip side, Spirit's had such a hard time recruiting pilots that they have ~8% initial training washout rate.

 

The Spirit contract is gong to take them up to a whooping 4th lowest paid airbus pilots.

Once JB and F9 get contracts Spirit will be the second lowest ahead of allegiant. They are still not going to be able to attract a ton of pilots.

With that said more pilots may pull the cord and jump from the regionals to Spirit, which brings the convo full circle, the 70 seaters will get to expensive to operate because the regionals will need to increase signing bonuses and pay rates to attract pilots and stop the bleeding. Makes bringing the flying in house easier.

 

Look at their route map. Delta, Southwest, and American have as much overlap with them as we do. I'm not worried about them at all.

 

I'm not concerned about the route map; I'm concerned about the excessive capacity increase.

Wall Street wasn't happy when UAL announced 4-6% growth but has no problem with (excluding AMR, Delta) other carriers adding significant capacity. Southwest is planning on 5-6% capacity increase and Wall Street didn't blink an eye.

One thing I really like about Kirby is that he wants to add capacity more in line with our competitors. If it causes overcapacity issues, then we'll all have to reduce growth. And from looking at Spirit's numbers, they're adding more capacity than demand can support. When that happens, airlines tend to just put planes on new routes, hoping to fill them up while selling at fares where everyone loses money.

And let's not forget that Spirit has a lower CASM due to higher seating density. Their A320s hold 178 or 182 pax. Compare that with our 150 seats.

 

Good points! Kirby wants to expand regional flying, but RJ pilots all have their apps out at LCCs and majors. SWA and Spirit will hire over 1,000 RJ pilots this year. RJ pilots are fed up with the mainline partners. United will have to transfer the 50 and 76 seat jets to mainline or park them as we all leave to the competitors this year. Fun times!

 

I've heard enough, Im going in tomorrow and asking my CP if he will write me a letter for Skywest. Who's coming with me!

 

This will allow you to go back to towing banners, where you belong. Think of the lifestyle!!! I heard the banner tow operators wave the Hogan assessment, college degree requirement, and don't require their pilots to be a minimum of 23 years old. You are a shoe-in.

 

Who is this “we?” I thought you were good where you’re at with your side hustle at SKW?


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