Bear Market
 

I’m a relatively new pilot here with ~500 pilots below me. I’m curious what the APC brain trust thinks about this bear market with respect to pilot hiring and growth, if any. I’m aware of how 9/11, SARS, 100 barrel oil in 08’ have affected United.


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The stock market shows all the signs of a correction. Sharp down, followed by sharp up. It is not a recession. Not me saying it. But my well respected investment management company.

I wouldn't give it a second thought. Enjoy your career and family. You'll see ups and downs. The way the airline industry is structured today I don't think you'll see the lows we enjoyed the last decade.

Agreed. With 4 airlines controlling 85% of the market I highly doubt you'll ever see another decade like "the lost decade" in this industry again.

Gup

Live within your means. Keep your first wife and first house.

Worry about what you can control.

Best advice I have heard is it isn’t what you make but what you can save. Sock as much away as you can and set it and forget it. Airlines will come and go and as much as the industry has changed it is still the same... happy times and sucky times in a 10-15 yr cycle. Make hay while the sun is shining.

Our profit margins aren’t great but we also have a bigger portion of business travelers and higher net worth individuals who don’t feel whatever weekly financial crisis the news can create a nickname for. No pilot can move the rudder on a ship this big but having your personal finances in order make it much easier to not bring it home with you.

There is nothing wrong with the economy at all right now. The country is so politically charged the liberal
Media is trying its damndest to manufacture a recession/depression for the 2020 election. The market is reacting to that. They are now trying to sell you the idea that low oil prices are bad for the economy! GMAFB. Most companies, including the big oil companies, are doing just fine!! All you have to do is look at the fundamentals of companies to know what’s really going on. Turn off the news. It’s garbage.

Airlines especially will do awesome with these low oil prices. Now is the time to buy buy buy when everyone else is panicking.

You’re going to be ok! Load factors are high. Oil is low. People are flying everywhere. Barring any out of left field terrorist stunt or something extreme, everything will keep trucking along.

Don’t live outside your means. If you’re single stay single. Do not get married and have kids. That’s the most costly thing you could ever do. If you’re married and have kids, try to stay married as a divorce and child support will set you back to the Stone Age. Save at least 10% of your income.

Be smart and you’ll be ok.

I Hate to agree, but I couldn't have said it better. The market drop is not based on fundamentals but rather "trend following" and as such it's just like the "Flash Crash" but in slow mo'. Now if somehow the "trend followers" get enough folks to believe their story then maybe I'll change my opinion, but for now I see another year of good times at the least.

A flash crash in slo mo? Jumbo shrimp popped into my mind when reading that for some reason.

LOL don't forget your tinfoil hat when you leave the house.

Like the housing market stocks can only go up right??? Nothing to do with this being the longest bull market and tech stocks being a hair over priced for a while right? Couldn't be that. A normal healthy correction.

It must be the LIBERAL MEDIA!

Um.....it is. You keep on with your "healthy correction" how to invest for dummies chapter one quote BS. Don't be scared homie.

Haha...You're funny

Of course you agree with IHateYou. Hilarious. Two peas in a pod.

Hire till they furlough.

I also agree with IHateYou.

The liberal media “gets a thrill up their leg” bashing anything Trump. The economy is doing well under him, and they will say or do anything to make it seem otherwise.

Ahhhhhh. The old "thrill up their leg" trick. That explains what's going on with the stock market in great detail. Thanks. It all makes perfect sense now.

Why put "gets a thrill up their leg" in quotes?
Sunvox put "Flash Crash" and "trend followers" in quotes too. Where are you guys getting these great talking points? The media?

Are you really that uninformed?

https://youtu.be/mVwWDj0VtG4

So that's being informed? Take a look in the mirror.

I was referring to your lack of knowledge of the origins of the "quote". Feel free to embarrass yourself some more.

I don’t watch nor listen to Chris Matthews so pardon my missing the origins of his quote. I guess he did get the quote from the media though.
Thanks for your assist. I’ll try my best to find a connection between that quote and today’s stock market as it relates to this this thread.

Oh. I think I get it now. That Chris Matthews quote led to the state of the stock market today. Is that correct? MSNBC can create wild swings in the stock market? How am I doing?

To be fair I’ll add that not storing the quotes some tv personality made long ago qualify me as an idiot. Movie quotes are my strength.

Give yourself a pat on the back. You’ve earned it. You remembered a Chris Mathews quote thereby qualifying you as informed. I’ll study up.

Now back to how the media has caused the stock market to flash crash (in slow mo).

Don’t know if we’ll shrink or grow if this continues but budget for guarantee pay in your current seat (and nothing more) and pay off as much debt as possible. Always. In good times and bad......until the day you retire.

That’s prudent. Not ominous.
Hiring should continue to at least cover attrition for a while. Retirements continue to increase until they peak in 2028.

So don’t get married or have kids because of the potential for divorce and child support payments? So just stay single and never have any kid(s)? Not sure if one can go through life with that kind of tin foil hat. Reminds me of the guy who asked why are you bothering saving for retirement right now when you don’t even know if you will live to 66? I mean, really?

We are definitely overdue for a recession. I believe it will be a lot more mild than the last one, but it is about time.

We had 8 years of prosperity and growth (2010-2017). This is the longest bull market in history. That won’t last forever. Here are some trends that are leading to this recession.

The stock market is down almost 20% in the last 3 months. Consumer spending is the largest driver of US GDP, and stocks popped huge in the last year under expectations that tax reform would cause a surge in consumer spending. That did not happen, so stocks are coming back to earth.

Taxes are actually going up for close to 20% of Americans. I still fly with Captains who don’t realize they won’t be able to write off all of their crazy Texas property taxes thanks to the SALT deduction cap. Or their union expenses. Or their per diem differential. Or some fellow single FO’s (like me) who saw their marginal tax rate increase from 28% to 32%.

Meanwhile, while $1.5 trillion in revenue was cut due to tax reform, the US govt will spend more on discretionary spending than at any time in history, almost 30% more than it was spending from 2013-2016.

The Fed is not stupid. Inflation is coming. Low rates were needed to pull us out of the last recession, but all that free money needs to be reined in eventually. Higher rates means less money flowing through the economy.

Now half a million government employees are going without a paycheck during the government shutdown. The US government is our largest customer, and they’re not purchasing any airline tickets right now.

I could go on and on, but a recession is definitely overdue. Best advice is to live within your means and save to be prepared if the eventual recession has an impact on our industry.

Bear Market
 

Inflation during a recession?

My god you folks bicker a lot

If you’re fortunate enough to have a steady job with a good income as we have, you will want down markets, even severe down markets, two or three times during your good earning years. The money put in regularly as the market goes down and hits bottom will have the biggest return of all when the market cycles back up. I know this is so obvious as to say DUH, but the emotion of seeing the value of a portfolio go down a lot can sometimes cloud the longer view. The continued buying into the DJIA when it went from 14000 to 7000 last time (or NASDAQ from 5000 to 1100 in 2000) yielded the biggest jump in value when it blew back through 12000 to where it is now. Unless you think this the end of all things and we are entering an apocalyptic era where there is no world order and we'll be bartering with grain and chickens in retirement, then we can take advantage if the market crashes in a big way and we can put all of our 2018 profit sharing check (and maybe 2019 too) into the market when it hits bottom.

At least that’s what i’m trying to convince myself of.

Great viewpoint!.......if “the end of all things is approaching “ the only survivors will be coachroaches....and the guppy. 😂

Bear Market
 

Very small single size poll here. My cousin put off refinancing his house and doing a MAJOR remodel because of interest rates. He isn’t the only one. Less money flowing means a pull back in discretionary spending, means a slow down in employment, means a slow down in housing, means a correction/recession.

The good news for you guys. Should the need to shrink the list ever come, United would spend more money furloughing, training, and retraining, rather than just waiting for natural attrition off the top in the form of retirements.


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Recession imminent. Hiring will slow next year and the following year may see a halt for a while. Then a slow uptick.

Thanks, Nostradamus.

Jesus you guys and the “Tin foil” hat saying. It’s really over used. Not to mention incorrectly used.

I’m not like the retirement guy. Hell yeah save for retirement. But go ahead and get married. Have kids. Have lots. Can’t wait to fly with you later listening to you complain about your marriage and how much college costs. Or listening to you complain about you losing half your 401k!!
When I fly and they ask if I’m married with kids and I tell them I’m not with no kids. They all say “damn, must be nice!!” Yup it is!!! Or “**** you must me have tons of money!” Yup!!

It’s not a tin foil hat thing. It’s a math and emotional well being thing.

LOL what makes you think that???

I think the tin foil hat metaphor is quite apt in your case.

It’s amazing how sometimes you can watch natural selection within a species play out in real time.

You’re living for yourself and only yourself. I couldn’t imagine living like that.

Haha! Ok. You told me.

Haha. You go ahead and think what you want. You couldnt be more wrong. I never said I was alone. I never said to not be in a relationship. Im just not married and living with someone. What’s mine is mine. And will always be mine. I will never have to give half of what I earned to someone else. That’s doesn’t mean living for only yourself. So nice try. But go ahead and Enjoy sitting on the mall bench with all the other miserable husbands while you’re wives spend all your money. LOL.

Trivia question for you - how long has it been since Australia had a recession? (Hint: before some of our newhires were born)

You just proved my point. Just because you have commitment issues due to your selfish nature doesn’t mean countless others can’t be successful in this area. You speak as if everyone will have a miserable and failing marriage. I have one of the least materialistic women in existence but go ahead and assume every spouse fits your stereotype.

I guess everything you do with your partner is done dutch?