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-   -   Understanding and predicting profit sharing. (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/united/121206-understanding-predicting-profit-sharing.html)

sailingfun 04-14-2019 12:22 PM

One consideration for your upcoming negotiations. Delta’s profit sharing is based purely on the pretax profit of the airline. UAL’s PS is based on the profit margin of the airline. Currently given a equal profit it produces a similar PS check. 15 years from now however if each airline is still producing the same margin but revenues have doubled Delta’s profit sharing will have more than doubled given the 20% above 2.5 billion while UAL PS checks will remain the same. Consider trying to change the metric to capture growth!

APC225 04-14-2019 02:51 PM


Originally Posted by Pro2nd (Post 2802766)
There are no open seats anywhere lately. We should be raising ticket prices.

Except in the hours before departure when the only folks who are available to buy the bargain basement deals are nonrevs. Nice way to earn another bit of revenue off your own employees. It's like the new vacation pass. One person does it so everyone has to.

horrido27 04-14-2019 03:36 PM


Originally Posted by Pro2nd (Post 2802766)
There are no open seats anywhere lately. We should be raising ticket prices.

Just flew HNL-IAD.. 76-3.
About 50 open seats.

My flight from IAD back to EWR had 3 non revs, one open seat BUT 10 DH'ing FA's plus 3 Pilots.. and me~. lol
All on a crappy E145.

Guess I'm seeing the opposite.
But I agree, the company has no reason to push for a new contract any time soon.
Reading over on the Delta Forum, seems that they feel that they are in the same boat. But they also know that baring any catastrophe within the industry, they are (again) looking at a PS check in 2020 that will help offset any delay. And then there's always the retro/signing bonus when the the contract comes along~

Your view my vary?

Motch

Yak02 04-14-2019 06:54 PM

Motch,

You missed the South Pole party at my house friday night. Could have found out about the real problems of non-reving to the islands.

Pat

horrido27 04-15-2019 12:18 PM


Originally Posted by Yak02 (Post 2803120)
Motch,

You missed the South Pole party at my house friday night. Could have found out about the real problems of non-reving to the islands.

Pat

Pat.. was SOOOO bummed I couldn't make it! Drove to work with the top down (and shut the car off in the parking lot! Who says a retired old enlisted guy can't learn!) and by the time I got to HNL, had a cough and scratchy throat! DAMN Allergies~

Heard all about it from the boys the next day. They had a great time. Hopefully I can get a raincheck for the next one~

Be well, fly safe!
(Fly the Contract)

Motch

PS) on the flight over, we had a 756 pilot who had bought reduced fare tickets for not only his family... but for himself! We ended up getting all the non revs on board, and think we had 2 seats open. It does happen~
Timing!

APC225 04-16-2019 01:02 PM

United Airlines on Tuesday reported a first quarter profit increase that easily beat Wall Street forecasts as it sold more tickets and cut costs, standing by its 2019 profit target even as its Boeing Co 737 MAX jets remain grounded.

Chicago-based United has removed its 14 MAX aircraft, which were suspended worldwide in March following two fatal crashes, from its flying schedule through early July, eating into U.S. airlines' peak summer travel season.

Still, the airline's parent United Continental Holdings Inc reiterated its estimate for adjusted earnings of $10 to $12 per share in 2019, and said its strategy for scheduling more flights out of its hubs was continuing to win customers.

Rawhide51 04-17-2019 03:34 AM


Originally Posted by Sunvox (Post 2802652)
Next we add back a guess on "Special Charges" which have ranged from $100 to $500 million over the last several years, and lastly we add back last years profit sharing number (going from memory here) of about $340 million and batta-bing-batta-bang we have our earnings number for PS calculation forecast at $3.2 billlion + $250 million special charges + $340 million PS2017 = $3.79 billion.

If we save a $1 billion dollars in fuel the percentage goes up to 8.5% or said another way - every $100 million in fuel savings adds about 0.3% to PS.

The key here is that in 2015 when we had a huge PS number oil was around $40 a barrel and our fuel costs were about $3 billion less, and as fuel cost have risen ticket prices (revenue) have not gone up equally.

Also interesting to note that Delta's PS for 2017 was based on revenues of $44 billion and profit of $5.5 billion and oddly enough their payroll number is lower so all in all it makes for a much bigger payout, but not because of the mechanism behind the calculation as they get 10% of the first $2.5 billion which is darn close to the $2.7 billion in our 2017 calculation. It's all about the roughly $2 billion in additional profit they have.

Joe, I think you are missing two important points. As someone else already mentioned, Delta's contract focuses on the word "profit" and ours mirrors other work groups within the company and focuses on the word "margin."

You can type it in to google, or just click here: https://smallbusiness.chron.com/prof...gin-10684.html

My viewpoint is similar in that margin focuses on "your company's long-term viability" while profit "is a short term indicator of how well your company is doing."

You are not being shown all the cards in this long term game, so you can't accurately predict, (there really is zero transparency) how we will fare in the profit sharing game at the end of the year.

Which leads to my second point. Take a look at the company's 1Q19 earnings report:
https://hub.united.com/united-airlin...634807011.html

Focus on bullet number 7. It says: "Repurchased $527 million of its common shares in the first quarter of 2019"

Now ask yourself, if we only made $292 million in income for 1Q19, how the hell could we possibly burn $527 million in stock buybacks? I use the word 'burn' because I see it as management refusing to use that money on something that would actually help the operation. Are they really telling us that there was no better use for half a billion dollars, than to bury it? Yes, it will raise the stock price because you are lowering the total number of shares out there, but is that really more important than the actual investment in the corporation? I get it, Wall Street wants to focus on reducing the cost per available seat mile, and this just happens to fall outside of CASM calculations, but still, Dulles airport couldn't use half a billion to kick start a new terminal? There is really no long term infrastructure program within the company that could use the investment now, while the economy is good and we can afford it?

How did we manage to spend $527m buying our own stock, when we only had an income of $292m? Yes, it's a cash flow business, but they are getting away with moving money around from one accounting category to another, without acting in the best interest of the corporation. They are simply acting in the best interest of the share price, and calling that the best interests of the share holders.

If I were king for a day, I would change our contract wording to reflect profit instead of margin. I would insist the board of directors eliminate the stock buy back program. And lastly, I would demand that the management of this company recognize that these are the good times. The economy is booming, so business is good. It won't always be this way. Now is the time to invest in the infrastructure for the long term. With the next recession, you won't be able to issue more stock to raise the money when you need it, because that will only lower the individual share price even further in an already down economy.

Winter is coming!

Zenofzin 04-17-2019 09:14 AM

There are lots of reasons healthy companies do stock buybacks.

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/ans...own-shares.asp

blockplus 04-17-2019 11:53 AM

And delta paid investors $ 233mil In dividends for 3months . UAL is buying stock to keep investors happy to avoid a dividend.

Flyingphi 04-17-2019 01:42 PM


Originally Posted by blockplus (Post 2804471)
And delta paid investors $ 233mil In dividends for 3months . UAL is buying stock to keep investors happy to avoid a dividend.

Delta is also doing stock buybacks. And by buying back their own stock, it decreases the amount of dividends they have to pay out.


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