Corona/Max effects
 

As someone wading in the kiddie-pool, who is checking my email multiple times a day for a class date, what do those on the inside see or believe the real effects of the current COVID-19 and Max issues will be on future hiring (business as usual, short term hiring, a hiring pause, or dare I say the F word of which we do not speak?)

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Nobody knows, and if they say they know they are lying. There are too many moving parts at this point.

COVID-19 may be a temporary blip or it may cause a global recession.

The MAX **should** be flying later this year or it might not.

The stock market may crater or it might bounce to new highs.

Fuel prices are low but we know how that can change.

For now, UAL is doing exactly what they said we would do and are continuing to hire this spring but at a slower pace since we are mostly staffed for summer 2020. The plan is to rapidly spool up hiring once the MAX is fixed.

As we all know, the plan is always changing. But the good news is we have lots of retirements coming up. This will greatly mitigate the threat of the F word absent a real calamity.

EDIT: UAL just pulled its published 2020 investor guidance after the market closed today. "Beyond the first quarter, we believe the range of possible scenarios is too wide to provide earnings guidance at this time."

Full text: http://ir.united.com/node/23236/html

Pulling SEC guidance for 2020 can't be a good thing.

Are we seeing any movement in staffing, specifically in the 777/787 as these fleets are the most exposed? What is being done with crews that would have flown the cancelled pairings? Can't imagine they are getting paid to just sit home.

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2020 Guidance pulled. Asia traffic down 75%. Europe next? Who knows.

Have a plan B, C and D!

I do have B, working on C and D.

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If there's one thing the world's central bankers learned in 2009, it's that quantitative easing fixes every economic problem.

Actually, that's exactly what they are doing.

UAL is using some of the airplanes on domestic routes but those flights don't require 3 or 4 FOs so the fleets are overstaffed in the short term. That means there are more pilots than normal on reserve, but with fewer block hours combined with more pilots on reserve, the reserves are not being utilized at a normal level. So yes, there are guys at home getting paid.

Since pilots are only trained and current on one fleet type at a time it's not like UAL can have them fly A320s, for example, in the interim.

In the short term UAL will be offering reduced credit lines where pilots only receive 50 hours of pay but are OFF the entire month. For UAL it beats paying 73 hours for RSV pilots that are not used and there are pilots that are happy with reduced pay for known time off.

If this becomes a longer term problem UAL will displace pilots off those fleets but that will require lots of training ($$$) so UAL does not want to do that as the first step.

This is why everything is in limbo, nobody knows if this is short term or long term situation.

So would UAL continue to bring pilots onbaord if they are paying pilots to sit at home? Seems to me that everything, except building a pool, would be put on hold, but that is me on the outside looking in?

Thoughts from the inside?

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It all depends.

Economically, it would make total sense to hire pilots for the MAX deliveries **if** the widebody issue in the far east is considered temporary. UAL is constrained by a union contract with a seniority list. This is a good thing for both current and prospective pilots as the corporate economic decision matrix is quite different compared to a non-union airline.

It's the scenario where there's a global recession (including the USA) where hiring stops. Period.

One can also easily envision various plausible scenarios between the extremes.

Are you speculating or has this been announced?

announced..

Oscar season is over. Save that dramatic performance for next year.

This. ^^
filler

Google 'moderna.'
The virus has a low mortality rate and a vaccine is about to be tested on humans. I wouldn't be surprised if this is over before the Max flies another revenue flight.

The big problem with Coronavirus is the incubation period. You can have been infected for more than a week before you suspect anything. I have faith in the world's medical professionals to have an effective vaccine available to the public in the near future.

The media has done a great job of hyping Coronavirus.

There will always be some afraid of their own shadows. Nice job cherry picking a small slice of my post.

I'm thinking about starting a business of selling bubbles that people can live in. Then everyone could live like David Vetter.

I think the most logical way to look at it is hope for the best but plan for the worst. If the virus isn't as bad as the hype, then great, if it's as bad or worse, you at least have a plan which can be modified to deal with it.

This virus is incredibly serious and could potentially effect all of us. As of right now it there are no signs of it being under control so all we can do is hope for the best. It is totally possible that there are 100s of cases in the US already due to the long incubation period and the huge amount of international air travel coming into our country.

That's always prudent.

IATA is estimating a .6% decline in international air travel in 2020, revised downward from a 4.1% increase previously forecast. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/20/coro...ince-2009.html

Should the bottom 10% of the list have furlough plans? Definitely.
Should those more senior have plans to be surplused down to a lesser paying seat with pay at say 75 hrs/mo? Definitely.
Bottom line: live below your means as an airline pilot. At all times. You never know what's going to happen in the future.

You want some scare porn? Read this: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...accine/607000/
Here's an even bigger killer than Coronavirus: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/med...cdc/ar-BBZTLLN

There are many things scarier/more deadly than Coronavirus.

Why is that scare porn? It's called logic and science. Maybe spend less time on APC and do some actual research on the virus.
Comparing Covid-19 to the season flu shows how little you know.

Thanks professor. It was a comparison of number of mortalities - you know, actual numbers rather than dreaming up doomsday scenarios. I guess it's better for some to run around yelling, 'the sky is falling.'

God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
Courage to change the things I can,
And wisdom to know the difference.

What one can do is plan for the worse. And then stop running around spreading fear.

Plus do you really trust the information coming out of China? The communist government says so, it must be true, they would never hide anything.

The mortality rate for the seasonal flu is .05% and Covid-19 is 2-3%.

You're correct; I was just about to edit that. Meant to write number of mortalities.
The mortality number is running ~2% at the moment. Let's see how things progress once there are vaccines out there.

What’s interesting is quarantine and reduction
in global travel does not seem to stop the spread, yet that is exactly what people are doing.

The response doesn’t seem to be rational.

The amount of new cases in China is declining, and of course western society can not lock down cities with millions like an autocratic regime can.

Furlough? Hope not. Non-rev first class with no stress? Yes!!!

Also, the mortality rate varies significantly based on health, gender and age. Men are more likely to die, but younger healthy men are at a very low risk.

I find it odd how in the 21st century it’s difficult for most, including the media and those educated, to interpret data and science and act rationally. Such is the human condition I suppose.

The most ill I ever was happened in the sunshine of a resort and a nasty parasite. Yet I go back every year.

Perhaps we will know more in a couple months? It seems as though typically these viruses begin to die out in the Spring as immunity increases and ease of transmission decreases with warmer weather.

Seems like a lot of irrational hype now. But of course irrational hype effects business and careers.

Hopefully this thing just blows over and there isn't a huge outbreak like some of these other countries. I did see something interesting and a bit concerning yesterday was that the CDC has only tested 400-500 people for the virus here, but South Korea for example has tested around 20,000. So we really don't know the real numbers here in the US yet.

Even if there is a temporary slow down with the airlines I would imagine with the pilot shortage it shouldn't effect us too much long term.

Medical facilities are likely better in many parts of the world than in Wuhan city. And the entire world's medical community is now on red alert.

As for the human condition, I think that mankind always needs something to worry about and blow it out of proportion. Take climate change as the latest iteration of mass concern.

Let me give you a silver lining to this cloud. Perhaps I'll catch Coronavirus and die from it. That means everyone below me moves up by one number.

Make financial plans for the worst case and then stop worrying about this stuff. We don't have any control over it, and like I stated earlier, I have faith that medical professionals will be able to bring this under control - whether it be stopping the spread of Coronavirus or having an effective vaccine that is readily available

Incredibly, there was a small group of anti-vaxers waving signs outside the parking lot of my local Costco yesterday.

I’m optimistically looking at this whole event as an opportunity to further thin out the herd.

I remember when we had 3 year captains in 2001 and they ended up being 14year FOs.

50hr no fly lines? I must have missed an email about that

The ccs message was only sent to fleets/seats affected.

Which were:

DCA 787 FO – 12
EWR 777 FO – 30
SFO 777 FO – 60

Prayer is the one thing we can all rely on to not work.

This is how the zombie apocalypse starts there Will Smith... pandemic and a rushed vaccine.

Yes, I suppose many are busy panicking over things that they have zero control over.

I have followed the guidance from the second line in preparation for worst case.

As for the third line, I'm pretty sure I know the difference between what I have control over and do not.

I'm not religious; it's just really, really good life advice.

You're right. My comment wasn't really even directed at you even though I did quote you. It's just my sentiment in general.