Earnings!
 

Interesting earnings.

Actually better than I expected.

Details:

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...020erex991.htm

Agreed, very Interesting.

DL - Net Loss of 2.8B
UA - Net Loss of 1.6B

UA flew ~1% more ASMs.

DL net loss was $2.8B. Pre-tax loss was $3.9B.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

My mistake. Does that table look better now, or do I compare DL's 2.8B to UA's adjusted net loss of 2.6B?

Thanks.

They have billions. And access to more billions.

Not one effing Nickle.
https://cbcmsurf.files.wordpress.com...irl-hawaii.jpg

Does this mean my profit sharing check will be a bit smaller next year?

Actually laughed a bit til it turned into a cry...........😂..........😭

Yup.

With UAL's projected cash burn and Q3 cash on hand, the company will still be in a solid position a year from now when there are plausibly multiple successful vaccines.

Better than I expected.




I would like to see the kaikamahine wela on my 7' Allison ....

There's no crying in the airlines!


The women in this video are no match for Mako's pics

United net loss: 1.6B

Delta net loss: 2.8B

United pretax loss: 2.6B

Delta pretax loss: 3.9B

This will probably upset a few of the snowflakes...
Oh Well

https://youtu.be/FpO0OV4mfvo

;)
Motch

How long can we hang?
 

If we have $18B in liquidity and our cash burn is 25M per day, any guesses on how long we can continue at this pace till a recovery comes about?

As a guy who is near the bottom, but not WARNed yet, am I wrong in thinking optimistically that based on these numbers we might just be able to keep flying empty airplanes for a few more years and wait out a recovery without furloughing 4000 pilots?

I think you are half right.

UAL is not going away. But the airline will be staffed for whatever demand is forecast, unfortunately.

No Christmas bonus for that pool you were going to put in. It’s Jelly of the Month Club for you next year.

Well it is the gift that keeps on giving.

LOL! Nicely done, CousinEddie and f15andMD11. I was looking for another quote to join in but couldn't find one to compete.


... on a more serious note, I just saw on CNBC that United's looking at 35% of normal revenue in Q3. I remember previous revenue forecasts to be around 60 or 70% in Q3. Something tells me a third furlough could be in my future ... so I've got that going for me, which is nice.

I think they probably wrote off the rest of ‘20 pretty early on. If bookings for the sumner aren’t in the 70% zone by the end of Q1....then yes, we’ll be staring at furlough “hat tricks”.

normal revenue.....not normal flights. Revenue was never forecast to be 60-70% by Q3.

AUG sked will be 35-40% of normal and the schedule will remain consistent throughout the rest of 2020. So by default this falls sked will be about 60% just because of normal seasonal reductions. No one is going to be getting a second or third furlough.

... unless traffic and revenues don't recover. I'm not ruling out a very slow recovery.

Bold statement.....

Just like Dougie Parker said airlines will never lose money again!? I’m betting on a very slow recovery with more furloughs in the spring. Hope I’m wrong.

it’s 4000 pilots to hit pre merger pilots. Add in 500 for early retirement plus another 500 for LOA...... (I think those are extremely conservative).... Thats 5000 pilots out the door before a pre merger pilot is even touched. Do you think this airline can survive with a schedule that low? Because I don’t if we send 5000+ pilots to the street we are done as a company.

FWIW, the investor call from this morning is posted online @ ir.united.com

One item that caught my attention was the fact that UAL still has an estimated $9B in unencumbered assets remaining after the current initiatives and the government loan. Recall that prior to the merger both UAL and CAL had virtually no unencumbered assets on the books (except the mileage programs). That means UAL generated a stunning amount of cash during the past decade when it both paid down debt and pushed $9B to the stockholders.

Strange there was no money for a pilot contract.....

That's another bold statement.
This company is very likely to survive even if it shrinks to 1/3 its current size or smaller. It's not about shrinking to profitability; it's about shrinking to stop the cash bleed. The company goes into survival mode and sheds as many expenses as possible. Perhaps even a visit to the man in the black dress. But I don't foresee the United as a likely outcome.
It sucks, but if the company needs a lot fewer widgets pilots for an extended period of time, the company will reduce the number of widgets furlough enough pilots to right size.

Another concern to me is Federal support post-election. If Biden wins and the Ds gain seats in the Senate, all this 'corporate welfare' will disappear and the Ds will blame any economic downturn on Trump's poor handling of the economy. I could just recycle one of the previous scripts they've used, changing minor details and it's updated to fit what's happening right now.

History....but more importantly Voluntary
 

Not a cheery subject, but I don't know on that one...my Dad was an old TWA guy and he watched TWA shrink by more than half while remaining TWA. He ended up retiring as AA bought them up but I remember him talking about TWA going from 4000 pilots or so to 2000 pilots when AA came along. My uncles were both PSA pilots and they watched their company shrink by 40% until US Air took them over late 80s, early 90s. It may be a long process but there is historic precedent for a gradual and slow decline. Even the old stand alone UAL shrank around 35-40% from the 12,000 pilot (give or take 9/11 workforce) to the 8000 or so that ended up in the merger. My numbers may be off given memory. Not saying there will always be a UAL but it may take a while.

Other than healthcare, is there a good reason to go with the Plus version of the Voluntary Furlough? I asked on the other board and it was clear that there aren't many positives to the Plus from those folks.

Oh dear God ... I'm skerd now. If we don't re-elect pOTUS we are skrewed.

Bovine Secretions.

That would be like choosing between a clown and a LEADER.

I would rather have the LEADER.

hood post and just proves my point none of those companies exist anymore.

They're both corrupt clowns. There are no leaders running in 2020.

You're almost out the door anyway so none of it is going affect you.

the number that I don’t think any of us know is how big of an operation MUST we have in preset to pay the bills for the things we can’t cut. I think that number is 60%. Bankruptcy lowers that number but eventually you have given up to much and shrank to insignificance and off you go into the sunset ala PanAm, TWA......there’s also the problem with debtors in Bankruptcy they have to believe your business plan is viable or you move onto CH 7.

If you say so ...

I was listening to Hanity earlier ... Got a good laugh ... All he does is take the comments thrown at tRUMP and throws them at Biden.

Sort of like your comment. They are not the same.

Back on track ... I do fear a slow recovery in air travel. I'm not certain that this year will produce any more recovery than we have already seen. Hope things come back early next spring.

Yes, because Maddow, O'Donnell, and the rest of the MSNBC crowd don't do that. Nor does the CNN crowd. :rolleyes:
Both sides are the exact same. The fact that you're blind to one side's corruption and incompetence doesn't mean it isn't true.
And Biden's been corrupt almost as long as he's been in office. That was well known inside the beltway long before he became VP. I can remember some of those discussions back when shrub had just taken office.

Enjoy your retirement.

Who Joe BiteME. Is that the same guy who dropped out of his first bid because he cheated his way through law school? The same alleged rapist? The one with the son who he helped embezzled millions from Rumania and Ukraine...who knows what he did in China...that same son who was kicked out of the Navy for being a crack head. Sorry guys had to get that out. Anyway, I'm leaving too. Hope my legacy is saving at least one furlough. Hope things turn around quickly.

Grizz

you crack me up! Where’s Hunter?

Nailed it!...............like Andy said previously.......no leaders here

Andy, sent you a PM

Leaving early or leaving at 65?

I thought Hillary was the only crook ... learn something everyday.

Retirement. It is great ... especially with everything going on. I have talked to several guys that are eligible for the early outs and encourage them to do it. If I still had a few years I would have taken it in a heartbeat.

Yeah ... I enjoyed flying the plane, great layovers with the 95%, and the medical benefits.

What I really miss is the early get ups to commute on a full low bid contractor who at times tries to kill me. I miss being on the back side of the clock and going to bed when I should be getting up. I miss the drama and the cat conversations in the back. I miss the 5%. I miss the WX and Mx delays. I miss the chicken fecal matter. I miss getting called into the flight office to be scolded about sick leave usage ... usually by some lowly chicken chit manager who is in the flight office so he won't have to fly the line. I miss the empty suite managers.
I miss missing flights home or missing several flights home. I probably missed a few things in there.

I enjoy sleeping in my own bed every night and not having a clue as to what I did with the suit case. I got rid of the black work shoes and work belt. I dive into stuff I want to do when I want to do it without concern for whether or not I can finish it before my next trip. I'm getting stuff done that I wanted to do for years. I show up at the trout stream and I can see the fear in the fish ... they recognize me and that my fly casting has improved. It goes on and on.

If you are eligible I say do it.

I'm just a bit short or I'd be all over it. Helluva deal for 62+