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130shadow 09-28-2020 03:58 AM

The grass
 
Passing this TA will keep pilots furloughed even longer when they are finally furloughed. You will have a very large number of senior pilots and pilots not pay protected that will pick up open time when the flying does come back. Their rationale will be, “I already gave to the junior pilots”. Thus keeping pilots on the streets longer. Have seen this movie before. You will have another large number of pilots hoping they do furlough in June so this TA gets thrown out. How’s that for you? Now hoping they furlough so your paycheck can be restored. People won’t admit that out loud, but they will they think it. Grass isn’t always greener on the other side.

AxlF16 09-28-2020 04:18 AM


Originally Posted by 130shadow (Post 3136772)
Passing this TA will keep pilots furloughed even longer when they are finally furloughed. You will have a very large number of senior pilots and pilots not pay protected that will pick up open time when the flying does come back. Their rationale will be, “I already gave to the junior pilots”. Thus keeping pilots on the streets longer. Have seen this movie before. You will have another large number of pilots hoping they do furlough in June so this TA gets thrown out. How’s that for you? Now hoping they furlough so your paycheck can be restored. People won’t admit that out loud, but they will they think it. Grass isn’t always greener on the other side.

It's their choice to behave that way.. if they do, they should probably keep any lessons on unionism to themselves. I hope maturity, brotherhood, and reasonableness prevail.

MasterOfPuppets 09-28-2020 07:32 AM


Originally Posted by 130shadow (Post 3136772)
Passing this TA will keep pilots furloughed even longer when they are finally furloughed. You will have a very large number of senior pilots and pilots not pay protected that will pick up open time when the flying does come back. Their rationale will be, “I already gave to the junior pilots”. Thus keeping pilots on the streets longer. Have seen this movie before. You will have another large number of pilots hoping they do furlough in June so this TA gets thrown out. How’s that for you? Now hoping they furlough so your paycheck can be restored. People won’t admit that out loud, but they will they think it. Grass isn’t always greener on the other side.

If that makes you feel better then so be it. How about you PM your name so I can buy you dinner and a beer to make up for your hardship. It will make me feel good to know that I helped you in your time of need.

cadetdrivr 09-28-2020 07:37 AM


Originally Posted by 130shadow (Post 3136772)
Passing this TA will keep pilots furloughed even longer when they are finally furloughed. You will have a very large number of senior pilots and pilots not pay protected that will pick up open time when the flying does come back. Their rationale will be, “I already gave to the junior pilots”. Thus keeping pilots on the streets longer. Have seen this movie before.

I'm calling shenanigans. There are plenty of legitimate PRO and CON arguments to this TA but this ain't one of them.

When the dust settles the company is gonna staff the airline to EXACTLY match capacity regardless of TA passage or failure.

That's the movie we've all seen before.

Nucflash 09-28-2020 07:40 AM


Originally Posted by 130shadow (Post 3136772)
Passing this TA will keep pilots furloughed even longer when they are finally furloughed. You will have a very large number of senior pilots and pilots not pay protected that will pick up open time when the flying does come back. Their rationale will be, “I already gave to the junior pilots”. Thus keeping pilots on the streets longer. Have seen this movie before. You will have another large number of pilots hoping they do furlough in June so this TA gets thrown out. How’s that for you? Now hoping they furlough so your paycheck can be restored. People won’t admit that out loud, but they will they think it. Grass isn’t always greener on the other side.

He’s projecting his own self-centered mindset on the rest of us. Speak for yourself. Not everyone is like you, thankfully.

MasterOfPuppets 09-28-2020 07:48 AM


Originally Posted by Nucflash (Post 3136850)
He’s projecting his own self-centered mindset on the rest of us. Speak for yourself. Not everyone is like you, thankfully.

mom confident that there is a very small number of his mindset spread througouht our seniority list.

Viperstick 09-28-2020 08:18 AM


Originally Posted by cadetdrivr (Post 3136846)
I'm calling shenanigans. There are plenty of legitimate PRO and CON arguments to this TA but this ain't one of them.

When the dust settles the company is gonna staff the airline to EXACTLY match capacity regardless of TA passage or failure.

That's the movie we've all seen before.

Agreed, but this will help the company staff to their desired end state much quicker. This will result in 4000+ furloughs next June, not 2006. The beauty of this for Kirby is that we will pay to get him out of his training conundrum. We are about to win a big stupid prize for playing a big stupid game.

Big5 09-28-2020 08:22 AM


Originally Posted by Viperstick (Post 3136875)
Agreed, but this will help the company staff to their desired end state much quicker. This will result in 4000+ furloughs next June, not 2006. The beauty of this for Kirby is that we will pay to get him out of his training conundrum. We are about to win a big stupid prize for playing a big stupid game.

So can I expect my 3 month furlough notice in March while earning 1/2 MPG now vs the full MPG?

AxlF16 09-28-2020 08:42 AM


Originally Posted by Big5 (Post 3136878)
So can I expect my 3 month furlough notice in March while earning 1/2 MPG now vs the full MPG?

If you're in the bottom 2007 you should expect a 3 month notice in late Feb - which is at least 3 months AFTER you would've been furloughed sans TA. I hope you don't get the notice, but it's wise to expect it to come.

Galaxy5 09-28-2020 08:55 AM


Originally Posted by AxlF16 (Post 3136893)
If you're in the bottom 2007 you should expect a 3 month notice in late Feb - which is at least 3 months AFTER you would've been furloughed sans TA. I hope you don't get the notice, but it's wise to expect it to come.

Bottom 2007 need only 60 days notice, right? So being in the 30 Oct Furlough group originally, I should get mine end of March, of 5 months after I was originally supposed to be furloughed.

ClearCreek 09-28-2020 08:56 AM

How many tears in this thread now? Lots of loudmouths here.

AxlF16 09-28-2020 09:46 AM


Originally Posted by Galaxy5 (Post 3136913)
Bottom 2007 need only 60 days notice, right? So being in the 30 Oct Furlough group originally, I should get mine end of March, of 5 months after I was originally supposed to be furloughed.

He asked about 'his' 3 month furlough notice, so I mirrored his comment.

As to your situation, I believe your timeline is correct.

130av8er 09-28-2020 11:45 AM


Originally Posted by 130shadow (Post 3136772)
Passing this TA will keep pilots furloughed even longer when they are finally furloughed. You will have a very large number of senior pilots and pilots not pay protected that will pick up open time when the flying does come back. Their rationale will be, “I already gave to the junior pilots”. Thus keeping pilots on the streets longer. Have seen this movie before. You will have another large number of pilots hoping they do furlough in June so this TA gets thrown out. How’s that for you? Now hoping they furlough so your paycheck can be restored. People won’t admit that out loud, but they will they think it. Grass isn’t always greener on the other side.

I see the law of unintended consequences all over this TA. I don't wish furloughs on anyone, but,
UAL will definitely be furloughing as many as they can in June 2021.

duvie 09-28-2020 01:55 PM


Originally Posted by 130av8er (Post 3137059)
I see the law of unintended consequences all over this TA. I don't wish furloughs on anyone, but,
UAL will definitely be furloughing as many as they can in June 2021.

which, unless flying is worse, will be less than they have to furlough with current block projections.

will this TA save all furloughs? No. How many furloughs would you need to see CXed to call this a win?

Grumble 09-28-2020 03:54 PM


Originally Posted by Viperstick (Post 3136875)
Agreed, but this will help the company staff to their desired end state much quicker. This will result in 4000+ furloughs next June, not 2006. The beauty of this for Kirby is that we will pay to get him out of his training conundrum. We are about to win a big stupid prize for playing a big stupid game.

Winner winner, ramen noodle dinner.

130shadow 09-28-2020 03:59 PM


Originally Posted by Grumble (Post 3137222)
Winner winner, ramen noodle dinner.

Yes, you are correct. And in a year, you will find no yes voters.

Andy 09-28-2020 11:43 PM


Originally Posted by Viperstick (Post 3136875)
Agreed, but this will help the company staff to their desired end state much quicker. This will result in 4000+ furloughs next June, not 2006. The beauty of this for Kirby is that we will pay to get him out of his training conundrum. We are about to win a big stupid prize for playing a big stupid game.

So your forecast is 4000 furloughs right ahead of summer flying? I think I've got a better chance of having a winning Powerball ticket than that coming true.

DashTrash 09-29-2020 06:28 AM


Originally Posted by 130shadow (Post 3137228)
Yes, you are correct. And in a year, you will find no yes voters.

...or you may not find anyone that voted no???

Viperstick 09-29-2020 08:13 AM


Originally Posted by Andy (Post 3137398)
So your forecast is 4000 furloughs right ahead of summer flying? I think I've got a better chance of having a winning Powerball ticket than that coming true.

Whatever demand is, that's the number to which the company will staff. They'll have everyone trained where they need them. If summer flying requires a few more pilots, 1 Jun 2021 = 90 days out WARN notice for a sub-2006 seniority pilot's 1 Sep 2021 furlough, after summer flying is complete.

duvie 09-29-2020 08:36 AM


Originally Posted by Viperstick (Post 3137520)
Whatever demand is, that's the number to which the company will staff. They'll have everyone trained where they need them. If summer flying requires a few more pilots, 1 Jun 2021 = 90 days out WARN notice for a sub-2006 seniority pilot's 1 Sep 2021 furlough, after summer flying is complete.

Viperstick,

Nobody knows what demand looks like for fall 2021, so both sides of the argument are a gamble. As far as I understand your train of thought, you are essentially calling Kirby‘s bluff on the 3900 number, because of the effect it would have on TK‘s ability to train. so in that scenario, perhaps seniority numbers 2850 to maybe 4500 from the bottom keep their full pay for another five months until their training center (seniority) equivalents can be furloughed.

I think this is one of the more interesting reasons to have voted no, however when I went down this rabbit hole, I think it would require a lot of cash burn for the months it took to train replacements… And would still result in the displacement of thousands of mid and upper tier pilots. If Scott Kirby had more years at the helm, I think perhaps he would have more leeway to gamble with staffing. As it is, I personally don’t think he would’ve had an option if he wanted to remain CEO, other than to right-size our staffing pretty quickly. Demand has been far more sluggish than anyone really predicted, so I personally do not think 3900 furloughs would’ve been enough… so more jobs would certainly have been on the table. As has been stated, TK‘s ability to train it’s really not as much of a bottleneck, when your block hours Are still hovering in the 30% of normal range.

I think you are right that we absolutely solve a problem for SK that does not benefit us… But I believe that the ability to get the company thinking more long-term again, will almost certainly decrease total furlough numbers and help us all avoid becoming UAL circa 2010. A lot of people closer to the center of this argument have stated that there are some glaring problems with the TA, I think you were absolutely right that the training issue was one of them…

Viperstick 09-29-2020 09:29 AM


Originally Posted by duvie (Post 3137535)
Viperstick,

Nobody knows what demand looks like for fall 2021, so both sides of the argument are a gamble. As far as I understand your train of thought, you are essentially calling Kirby‘s bluff on the 3900 number, because of the effect it would have on TK‘s ability to train. so in that scenario, perhaps seniority numbers 2850 to maybe 4500 from the bottom keep their full pay for another five months until their training center (seniority) equivalents can be furloughed.

I think this is one of the more interesting reasons to have voted no, however when I went down this rabbit hole, I think it would require a lot of cash burn for the months it took to train replacements… And would still result in the displacement of thousands of mid and upper tier pilots. If Scott Kirby had more years at the helm, I think perhaps he would have more leeway to gamble with staffing. As it is, I personally don’t think he would’ve had an option if he wanted to remain CEO, other than to right-size our staffing pretty quickly. Demand has been far more sluggish than anyone really predicted, so I personally do not think 3900 furloughs would’ve been enough… so more jobs would certainly have been on the table. As has been stated, TK‘s ability to train it’s really not as much of a bottleneck, when your block hours Are still hovering in the 30% of normal range.

I think you are right that we absolutely solve a problem for SK that does not benefit us… But I believe that the ability to get the company thinking more long-term again, will almost certainly decrease total furlough numbers and help us all avoid becoming UAL circa 2010. A lot of people closer to the center of this argument have stated that there are some glaring problems with the TA, I think you were absolutely right that the training issue was one of them…

Duvie,

In another post, I said exactly that--we should "call" Kirby's bluff. Yes, demand is currently in the crapper and is likely to remain so for awhile. However, we still need pilots to fly and the Guppy is our most prevalent airframe.

The Guppy TI manning is the true bottleneck. As you correctly identified, furloughing as deeply as threatened would have decimated Guppy TI manning and drawn out the movement of pilots from more senior fleets/seats to the Guppy and exacerbated cash burn. My argument all along has been Kirby could not have furloughed to the threatened 3900+ (perhaps not even to the WARNed 2850) without severely drawing out the retraining process--exactly why we have United pilots manning TK instructor positions. I believe what we actually did was trade away a contractual furlough protection (having line pilots staff TK who are under the furlough gun) to save near term furloughs in exchange for reduced MPG and the ability to run TK at full bore until the manning problem is solved. You've got the very junior part of the list now happy to keep their job for another eight months, but you just put a big target on the backs of those at the top of the bottom tier and the bottom of the middle tier for next summer that arguably either wouldn't have been there or would have been there later (and while still drawing full MPG in the meantime). Oh, and we just paid the carry cost for the unneeded pilots until next summer.

A theory? Yes, but I believe there's ample evidence to support this being more than the ravings of a lunatic. First, TK recently put out a job announcement for 30-50 new Guppy TIs, purportedly for the return of the MAX, but 30-50 is pretty close to the number of TIs that will be furloughed under recent threats. Second, the TA specifically incentivized Guppy (and Sparky) guys to downgrade to the other seat, rather than the Bus or 756, by offering pay freezes at their old seat rate. Why? Logically, to reduce the training footprint of these downgrading pilots and thus help TK throughput.

Ultimately, we'll find out if we won a big stupid prize next summer. We've already played the big stupid game.

ZR29907 09-29-2020 09:37 AM


Originally Posted by Andy (Post 3137398)
So your forecast is 4000 furloughs right ahead of summer flying? I think I've got a better chance of having a winning Powerball ticket than that coming true.

summer flying? lol, you are either really optimistic or haven’t been paying attention these last few months... maybe I’ll buy that lotto ticket with ya.

duvie 09-29-2020 09:46 AM


Originally Posted by Viperstick (Post 3137563)
Duvie,

In another post, I said exactly that--we should "call" Kirby's bluff. Yes, demand is currently in the crapper and is likely to remain so for awhile. However, we still need pilots to fly and the Guppy is our most prevalent airframe.

The Guppy TI manning is the true bottleneck. As you correctly identified, furloughing as deeply as threatened would have decimated Guppy TI manning and drawn out the movement of pilots from more senior fleets/seats to the Guppy and exacerbated cash burn. My argument all along has been Kirby could not have furloughed to the threatened 3900+ (perhaps not even to the WARNed 2850) without severely drawing out the retraining process--exactly why we have United pilots manning TK instructor positions. I believe what we actually did was trade away a contractual furlough protection (having line pilots staff TK who are under the furlough gun) to save near term furloughs in exchange for reduced MPG and the ability to run TK at full bore until the manning problem is solved. You've got the very junior part of the list now happy to keep their job for another eight months, but you just put a big target on the backs of those at the top of the bottom tier and the bottom of the middle tier for next summer that arguably either wouldn't have been there or would have been there later (and while still drawing full MPG in the meantime). Oh, and we just paid the carry cost for the unneeded pilots until next summer.

A theory? Yes, but I believe there's ample evidence to support this being more than the ravings of a lunatic. First, TK recently put out a job announcement for 30-50 new Guppy TIs, purportedly for the return of the MAX, but 30-50 is pretty close to the number of TIs that will be furloughed under recent threats. Second, the TA specifically incentivized Guppy (and Sparky) guys to downgrade to the other seat, rather than the Bus or 756, by offering pay freezes at their old seat rate. Why? Logically, to reduce the training footprint of these downgrading pilots and thus help TK throughput.

Ultimately, we'll find out if we won a big stupid prize next summer. We've already played the big stupid game.

well said. Thank you for the comprehensive explanation.

Andy 09-29-2020 09:50 AM


Originally Posted by Viperstick (Post 3137563)
Duvie,

In another post, I said exactly that--we should "call" Kirby's bluff. Yes, demand is currently in the crapper and is likely to remain so for awhile. However, we still need pilots to fly and the Guppy is our most prevalent airframe.

The Guppy TI manning is the true bottleneck. As you correctly identified, furloughing as deeply as threatened would have decimated Guppy TI manning and drawn out the movement of pilots from more senior fleets/seats to the Guppy and exacerbated cash burn. My argument all along has been Kirby could not have furloughed to the threatened 3900+ (perhaps not even to the WARNed 2850) without severely drawing out the retraining process--exactly why we have United pilots manning TK instructor positions. I believe what we actually did was trade away a contractual furlough protection (having line pilots staff TK who are under the furlough gun) to save near term furloughs in exchange for reduced MPG and the ability to run TK at full bore until the manning problem is solved. You've got the very junior part of the list now happy to keep their job for another eight months, but you just put a big target on the backs of those at the top of the bottom tier and the bottom of the middle tier for next summer that arguably either wouldn't have been there or would have been there later (and while still drawing full MPG in the meantime). Oh, and we just paid the carry cost for the unneeded pilots until next summer.

A theory? Yes, but I believe there's ample evidence to support this being more than the ravings of a lunatic. First, TK recently put out a job announcement for 30-50 new Guppy TIs, purportedly for the return of the MAX, but 30-50 is pretty close to the number of TIs that will be furloughed under recent threats. Second, the TA specifically incentivized Guppy (and Sparky) guys to downgrade to the other seat, rather than the Bus or 756, by offering pay freezes at their old seat rate. Why? Logically, to reduce the training footprint of these downgrading pilots and thus help TK throughput.

Ultimately, we'll find out if we won a big stupid prize next summer. We've already played the big stupid game.

I'm not seeing the displacement cancellation + system rebid getting the company in a position to do a massive single furlough. There will still need furloughs to occur in blocks.

Andy 09-29-2020 09:56 AM


Originally Posted by ZR29907 (Post 3137566)
summer flying? lol, you are either really optimistic or haven’t been paying attention these last few months... maybe I’ll buy that lotto ticket with ya.

TSA numbers went up most of the summer. They're now stalled at a plateau. However, people are tired of being stuck inside the house.
Covid numbers have been in a decline. OK, Europe's increased a bit but overall things are slowly getting better. We'll see how things go this winter, but if it's not a huge increase, I could see where a lot of pent up demand for travel takes place next summer.

But yes, I could just be an Eeyore and point out how bad Covid is. If I were 70+, I'd be more concerned about Covid but it's already run through our house without any funerals or overnight hospital stays.

bintheredunthat 10-02-2020 11:57 AM

Knee pad shortage
 
Word is out that knee pads are in short supply. Apparently, there’s been a run on this commodity by thousands of airline pilots and their CEO’s begging on bended knees for a continuation of uncle sugar’s financial aid. By all means, let the taxpayer support the lifestyle you have been accustomed to since in your eyes you are essential to the public.

Here’s what is essential for everyday requirements and life. The garbage collector, power supply and water distribution, farmers, ranchers and workers that toil in the fields to feed us. Truck drivers that distribute the processed foodstuffs and essentials like toilet paper. How about fire and police protection and most of all, medical healthcare workers. And let’s not forget the postal service, and certainly the grocery store workers who are essential to stocking and selling the groceries.

My last commercial flight was in February returning from a dive trip. Diving is fun and I miss the three or four trips out of country to pursue this sport but it’s not essential to my wellbeing. In fact, not dealing with airports, airlines, fat people in skinny seats and other negative aspects of commercial flying, has demonstrated that not participating in dive trips is much of a sacrifice.

In the early 80’s I was furloughed for nearly five years, in fact, the whole group of us that were hired in the late 70’s, eventually received our walking papers. We did not get federal financial aid nor expect it. We weren’t considered essential then nor is it now. In this industry sh!t happens! To mitigate this development, you did what any patriotic American did... go out and find another job. It might even require dusting off the resume and pursuing something besides flying.

Back then, the global slowdown took years to recover and I anticipate this one will also. As of now, the American traveler is not welcome in most countries because of our mishandling of the Covid virus. Throwing billions more of taxpayers' money at the airlines will be another example of Federal mishandling.

Grumble 10-02-2020 12:59 PM


Originally Posted by bintheredunthat (Post 3139270)
Word is out that knee pads are in short supply. Apparently, there’s been a run on this commodity by thousands of airline pilots and their CEO’s begging on bended knees for a continuation of uncle sugar’s financial aid. By all means, let the taxpayer support the lifestyle you have been accustomed to since in your eyes you are essential to the public.

Here’s what is essential for everyday requirements and life. The garbage collector, power supply and water distribution, farmers, ranchers and workers that toil in the fields to feed us. Truck drivers that distribute the processed foodstuffs and essentials like toilet paper. How about fire and police protection and most of all, medical healthcare workers. And let’s not forget the postal service, and certainly the grocery store workers who are essential to stocking and selling the groceries.

My last commercial flight was in February returning from a dive trip. Diving is fun and I miss the three or four trips out of country to pursue this sport but it’s not essential to my wellbeing. In fact, not dealing with airports, airlines, fat people in skinny seats and other negative aspects of commercial flying, has demonstrated that not participating in dive trips is much of a sacrifice.

In the early 80’s I was furloughed for nearly five years, in fact, the whole group of us that were hired in the late 70’s, eventually received our walking papers. We did not get federal financial aid nor expect it. We weren’t considered essential then nor is it now. In this industry sh!t happens! To mitigate this development, you did what any patriotic American did... go out and find another job. It might even require dusting off the resume and pursuing something besides flying.

Back then, the global slowdown took years to recover and I anticipate this one will also. As of now, the American traveler is not welcome in most countries because of our mishandling of the Covid virus. Throwing billions more of taxpayers' money at the airlines will be another example of Federal mishandling.

First post, and off the top rope!

None of the things you listed are essential, billions of people around the globe live without them every day. However since you've been gone... the aerospace and air transport sector has become one of the biggest drivers in our our national GDP. You also may have noticed something else you never saw back in the 70's and 80's... an incredible safety record, and profitability.

The Gov't broke it, they can fix it. Or they can let all the people who pay taxes and fund the gov't go out of work, and I'm not just talking airlines. I'm sure you were just as vocal about the auto industry being left to die back in 2008 too.

Half wing 10-02-2020 07:19 PM


Originally Posted by bintheredunthat (Post 3139270)
Word is out that knee pads are in short supply. Apparently, there’s been a run on this commodity by thousands of airline pilots and their CEO’s begging on bended knees for a continuation of uncle sugar’s financial aid. By all means, let the taxpayer support the lifestyle you have been accustomed to since in your eyes you are essential to the public.

Here’s what is essential for everyday requirements and life. The garbage collector, power supply and water distribution, farmers, ranchers and workers that toil in the fields to feed us. Truck drivers that distribute the processed foodstuffs and essentials like toilet paper. How about fire and police protection and most of all, medical healthcare workers. And let’s not forget the postal service, and certainly the grocery store workers who are essential to stocking and selling the groceries.

My last commercial flight was in February returning from a dive trip. Diving is fun and I miss the three or four trips out of country to pursue this sport but it’s not essential to my wellbeing. In fact, not dealing with airports, airlines, fat people in skinny seats and other negative aspects of commercial flying, has demonstrated that not participating in dive trips is much of a sacrifice.

In the early 80’s I was furloughed for nearly five years, in fact, the whole group of us that were hired in the late 70’s, eventually received our walking papers. We did not get federal financial aid nor expect it. We weren’t considered essential then nor is it now. In this industry sh!t happens! To mitigate this development, you did what any patriotic American did... go out and find another job. It might even require dusting off the resume and pursuing something besides flying.

Back then, the global slowdown took years to recover and I anticipate this one will also. As of now, the American traveler is not welcome in most countries because of our mishandling of the Covid virus. Throwing billions more of taxpayers' money at the airlines will be another example of Federal mishandling.

Yes, we know our grandkids will be paying off these government bailouts(in your case your great, great grand kids) but an airline bailout puts food on our tables and keeps us solvent. Sorry you didn’t receive any bailout money but as a previous airline pilot yourself, one would think you would support a bill to keep airline employees working. Your comments are out of touch and irrelevant. Thank you though for your sentiment that we should just be furloughed because you were once furloughed and because you now think it is for the greater good.

Grumble 10-02-2020 08:21 PM


Originally Posted by Half wing (Post 3139456)
Yes, we know our grandkids will be paying off these government bailouts(in your case your great, great grand kids) but an airline bailout puts food on our tables and keeps us solvent. Sorry you didn’t receive any bailout money but as a previous airline pilot yourself, one would think you would support a bill to keep airline employees working. Your comments are out of touch and irrelevant. Thank you though for your sentiment that we should just be furloughed because you were once furloughed and because you now think it is for the greater good.


His generation passed the buck on to their own offspring. Most selfish generation squandered one of the most prosperous times in modern history, and enriched themselves off debts their kids get to pay. Don’t let their feigning concern fool you.


For the record binthere... I was a no voter, but your generation should be the last to lecture about self interest and the greater good.

pangolin 10-03-2020 12:44 AM


Originally Posted by Andy (Post 3137578)
TSA numbers went up most of the summer. They're now stalled at a plateau. However, people are tired of being stuck inside the house.
Covid numbers have been in a decline. OK, Europe's increased a bit but overall things are slowly getting better. We'll see how things go this winter, but if it's not a huge increase, I could see where a lot of pent up demand for travel takes place next summer.

But yes, I could just be an Eeyore and point out how bad Covid is. If I were 70+, I'd be more concerned about Covid but it's already run through our house without any funerals or overnight hospital stays.

TSA numbers are not stalled at all.

baseball 10-03-2020 06:21 AM


Originally Posted by pangolin (Post 3139514)
TSA numbers are not stalled at all.

I was in the terminal the other day. It looked like Spring Break. All my flights were full. Had to accommodate pilots on the jump seat as well.

GPullR 10-03-2020 07:02 AM


Originally Posted by baseball (Post 3139578)
I was in the terminal the other day. It looked like Spring Break. All my flights were full. Had to accommodate pilots on the jump seat as well.

Thats because banks have been cut in half. If you were in the terminal between banks its a ghost town. Flights are definetly filling up. Problem is we are only flying 40% of our flights.

Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk

GPullR 10-03-2020 07:06 AM


Originally Posted by pangolin (Post 3139514)
TSA numbers are not stalled at all.

TSA number are between 25 and 33 percent. Have been for a long time. That is stalled. What on earth are you looking at??

Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk

BoilerUP 10-03-2020 07:24 AM


Originally Posted by GPullR (Post 3139599)
TSA number are between 25 and 33 percent. Have been for a long time. That is stalled. What on earth are you looking at??

Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk


Actual passenger counts, which are increasing week-over-week?

GPullR 10-03-2020 07:27 AM


Originally Posted by BoilerUP (Post 3139614)
Actual passenger counts, which are increasing week-over-week?

What are you looking at?? 25-33% every week.

Fake news, please state your source. TsA official website completely disagrees with u.

Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk

BoilerUP 10-03-2020 07:55 AM


Originally Posted by GPullR (Post 3139615)
What are you looking at?? 25-33% every week.

Fake news, please state your source. TsA official website completely disagrees with u.

No, it actually doesn't.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

Look at the actual numbers of actual passengers.

9/26-10/2: 5,245,915 weekly pax...749,416 daily average
9/19-9/25: 5,067,589 weekly pax...723,942 daily average
9/12-9/18: 4,850,301 weekly pax...692,900 daily average


4.48% week-over-week passenger growth in the seven day period beginning 9/19, followed by 3.52% week-over-week passenger growth in the seven day period beginning 9/26.

If this is too much of 'the math' for you, look at Tuesday, which are always the lowest travel day, in the month of September:

29 Sept: 568,668
22 Sept: 549,741
15 Sept: 522,383
8 Sept: 704,075 (Labor Day Holiday bump)
1 Sept: 516,068

Year-over-year figure was 25.3% on September 1st (Tuesday), that figure was 30.4% on September 30th (Wednesday).

If you consider 5.1% increase in year-over-year load factors from the beginning to end of September a plateau, I suppose that's your perogative.

GPullR 10-03-2020 08:04 AM


Originally Posted by BoilerUP (Post 3139648)
No, it actually doesn't.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

Look at the actual numbers of actual passengers.

9/26-10/2: 5,245,915 weekly pax...749,416 daily average
9/19-9/25: 5,067,589 weekly pax...723,942 daily average
9/12-9/18: 4,850,301 weekly pax...692,900 daily average


4.48% week-over-week passenger growth in the seven day period beginning 9/19, followed by 3.52% week-over-week passenger growth in the seven day period beginning 9/26.

If this is too much of 'the math' for you, look at Tuesday, which are always the lowest travel day, in the month of September:

29 Sept: 568,668
22 Sept: 549,741
15 Sept: 522,383
8 Sept: 704,075 (Labor Day Holiday bump)
1 Sept: 516,068

Year-over-year figure was 25.3% on September 1st (Tuesday), that figure was 30.4% on September 30th (Wednesday).

If you consider 5.1% increase in year-over-year load factors from the beginning to end of September a plateau, I suppose that's your perogative.

Here you go math boy. July 25-33%, August 25-33%, September 25-33%(minus holiday) October 25-33%. See a trend here.......

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Clear Right 10-03-2020 08:25 AM

It will be interesting to compare October TSA#’s. Do we slide backwards after POTUS/FLOTUS and other high profile COVID-19 positives?

Sixty N Two 10-03-2020 09:10 AM


Originally Posted by GPullR (Post 3139596)
Thats because banks have been cut in half. If you were in the terminal between banks its a ghost town. Flights are definetly filling up. Problem is we are only flying 40% of our flights.

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This explains it. The company has adjusted the schedule and number of banks for the current static demand. Good news is they are adding a few point to point trips as demand signals show the value. They are clearly on the demand signal and ready should we see growth in passenger demand, but they are not going to fly empty planes for any length of time

pangolin 10-03-2020 11:46 AM


Originally Posted by GPullR (Post 3139599)
TSA number are between 25 and 33 percent. Have been for a long time. That is stalled. What on earth are you looking at??

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It’s been a steady but slow climb. Check the TSA numbers thread for some recent graphs. It continues to increase.


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