Stock prices, real estate value, whatever always have their ups and down, and at times more significant than others. It’s a catch-up game. Inevitably everything falls and most of the time it can build again. Let the chips fall where they may, none of us have anything to do with it as we’re living still far downhill where the stuff starts. Gravity gets its way.

Have you seen a chart of M1? Zoom out to 5 or 10 years for context. Money printing went parabolic. This isn't a normal case of ups and downs. It's inflation as usual, but at an unusual rate. It exceeds the increase that occurred under Roosevelt when gold was collected by the treasury at $20.67 in 1933 and then declared to be $35 in 1934. The creation of savings bonds in 1935 also funded government spending. But the Roosevelt government paid people to work. Our government pays people not to work. Big difference.

Roosevelt

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/money-supply-m1
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/money-supply-m1

I doubt Americans will be waving their hands when basic items double and triple in price while their salaries remain unchanged. We have the worst case scenario at the moment with scarcity of certain basics along with excess monetary growth. Pay attention to prices for oil, computers, and food. You may be surprised or even shocked come this time next year. Inflation is not some type of economic mumbo-jumbo. It is real and sometimes painful; just ask pensioners in Argentina.

Ding ding ding !

Unfortunately we have a winner. He is spot on.

Happened to go into Whole Foods yesterday, and I was shocked! Some of their stuff is twice the price of Albertsons.

that’s normal there :D

It's Whole Wallet. Or Whole Paycheck.

Lumber has gone up about 150%. That's a good example of stopped production. The people's command economy didn't consider it essential, but actually shelter is essential. So money supply isn't the only problem. There is also price inflation caused by deflationary supply of goods. Turns out pumping money into an economy without producing a good to spend it on is about the most inflationary policy possible. Roosevelt's programs by contrast printed money in exchange for wealth creation. So money grew, but so did infrastructure and goods. Our government is just giving a man a dollar while actually preventing him from creating wealth in exchange for it. They're not paying him to put up electric poles or pave roads. They're paying him to sit at home.

Or, perhaps he's not.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/13/u...gtype=Homepage

Last time I checked most pilots owned homes (low interest good, prices increasing good) and invested in the stock market, which to this layman appears to be doing quite well. I'm sure that the pilots here also appreciate that we have received over 50BILLION to keep our employers alive. If anyone has benefited more as a group from this stimulus I have yet to see them (except of course the friends of trumpo who grifted the PPP)

But yeah, the world is going to end because we gave poor people 1400 bucks and kept fire and police depts open. Carry on.

IIRC stocks, bonds, etc... are not included in M1 and M2 calculations. FWIW....

Understood, but OP is somehow forecasting doom for all of us while the vast majority of us 1: Are seeing our net worth at all time highs, 2) are paying the least amount in any of our lifetimes to finance debt, 3 seeing our investments growing along with the values of our homes (and second homes) (more equity to tap cheap debt) and we are all fully employed at UPA pay rates.

But hey, the guy with the red tie isn't running the show anymore so somehow giving money to poor people instead of the .00001% and Raytheon et al is going to topple civilization.

Agreed. I'm not even an internet economist (and I didn't stay in a Holiday Inn Express) so I'll leave the pontificating to others, but a cursory internet search gives enough info to call BS on the hyperinflation bogeyman. This rapid increase appears to be directly related to COVID economic stimulus which has been directed mostly towards people's pockets instead of corporate balance sheets. We may be a bit over our skis so to speak, but I think its worth the risk. We already know he government WILL bail out banks, insurance companies, large 'economic engine' corporations when the consumer economy collapses, so why not try to keep the consumer economy alive? The devastation to PEOPLE after the 2007/8 recession was real - even though the banks/insurance companies/etc... were 'saved' by the taxpayers. Unlike the 2007 recession we have some certainty when this will end.

Help me understand this methodology...

So the junior group fly’s 35 and gets “grossed up to 70” while the senior group fly’s 70 and gets 70 ...

Not to mention the wide open schedule that allows the junior group to add an additional 10-30 hrs of added flying that brings their net up to somewhere between
80-100...

aww you poor thing. It’s an unimaginable tragedy that you’re facing. I hope that you find a way to survive this!

Layman is right.

You should look up what a DCF valuation does when interest rates go up.

What does the .gov have to do to keep inflation in check?

What happens when you print 1.9 trillion in cash and send most of it out in the mail?

The United States is backed into a financial corner we haven't seen since the 1930's. Putting everything on the national credit card and mailing helicopter money in a popularity contest is just throwing gas on the fire.

This has the making of a real financial disaster, not some hope and feels about poor people, fire departments and police.

​​​​​​Views like yours will surely kill the union at UA and along with it, the QOL and pay. The crap that the union fights for today will affect everyone at some point. As will the crap that they don't fight for.

It will take time, but if they hire enough guys with your attitude it will happen. Management is counting on it. Ask Mr Hogan.

I would say largely that no one argues the value of $1400 going to someone in need. However, the caps put on incomes receiving stimulus checks seem more indicative of making it more of a buy-in tool for the masses who would largely be unaware of anything in the bill other than the stimulus check itself.

It’s the LOA, National Edition!

Have you wondered why anyone would leave the Sr group for the Jr group? I've heard it asked. I've seen it work well too. For the exact reason you stated, wide open schedule. :cool:

But isn’t that only a player during para S compensation? Otherwise during the periods while the LOA isn’t in effect or during normal UPA construction, it would seem like a disadvantage, or at least less money.

True. I guess I'm thinking about the open schedule aspect. A Sr pilot can still pick up at their seniority level. But I guess that's missing the point. Not working 70hrs but getting paid 70hrs is the issue.

I mean this is only a factor for April, with the alternative having been normal UPA construction where most people are on reserve, still getting paid to do nothing. At least this way most of those who would otherwise be on reserve get a chance to stay current. People didn’t seem to like that either, though, so I guess there’s always something to complain about. 🤷🏻‍♂️

So be on reserve, work little if any and make 73-76 hrs, or hold a line, work 50+ hrs to make 70 just to stay current. Remaining current benefits who? I guess you need to see it from the company’s point of view.

Once again. we’ve been “variablized”.

From someone who is not current, it benefits me not having to have a landings class sprung on me when I had other plans. To each his own.

Yes, I realize that you would rather have seen me get furloughed because that's honoring seniority. I'm glad the Union leadership doesn't share your views and was willing to try something new to keep us all employed.

also, it was the senior group who raised hell when they learned that LOA mpg rules were going away for April. Many very senior 777 pilots would have been forced on RSV.

There are other tools in the box. Use them.

Go ahead and keep hiding behind that albatross that NO voters were pro-furlough and want to see guys kicked to the curb (BS ). Open your eyes and you may see that the true heartburn is with the ancillary effects of seniority stomping and windfalls that have taken place. Sorry, but a senior guy working 70 and getting paid 70 while a guy who had a furlough letter works 35 and gets 70 is not right no matter what you say. And your cavalier attitude towards the people who have taken big hits to keep you on property makes it hard to root for you and makes you a target when the senior group decide they need to "make it back".

Knotcher,

Well said. Thank you.

https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/...3/974/clap.gif

You're forgetting that it was the Senior group that convinced the Union to keep the LOA provisions for the month of April! You can’t have it both ways

This must be a WB thing. On NB’s I’m not seeing the fundamental difference other than more guys flying.

No pilots at United have taken big hits yet. If your narrative about the unfairness of the LOA is predicated on that... maybe reassess?

there have been hundreds of what-ifs from NO voters. Nothing substantial has come to fruition ...yet. Regardless of anyone’s opinion of TI et al, It was a always a gamble, albeit one that is largely paying off so far.

there are always going to be examples of junior guys getting things that some senior people don’t, (junior bases with PPU, FBO trips, etc) but I’d say that, like with most things, you’ll find evidence to support what you’re looking for. As has been mentioned, there are plenty of people on both ends of the list that might share common outcomes for LOAs, monthly bidding, etc for different reasons. This isn’t as black and white as you think.

for the life of me, the most vocal NO voters espousing that “this LOA is divisive” are the first to say “look what that other group is getting.”

Everybody took a hit in November, since then the only thing that has normalized pay and bailed us out has been the government cheese.

PPU and FBO happens by chance. Our union is not supposed to pick windfalls by design and codify it so 51% wins and 49% loses.

Duh...that crux of the issue. One side gets the majority of the spoils of the LOA. Not how its supposed to work. And I think we've had enough of seat protected captains and their "espousing" how great the LOA is.

So that’s your example of a big hit? One month of reduced guarantee? I think on the contrary we’ve all had enough of the exaggerated victimhood.

the membership decides what version of the agreement is in force... the TA passed by majority vote... so it is the current direction given to the MEC, like it or not.

Yea I understand that. What if we had TA where everyone in the bottom 55% gets a 100% raise and the top 45% gets a 50% cut. It would pass. So I have to ask you is that the way we want to operate as a union? If you are cool with that then hey...not me.

yes of course, we’ll just ask you next time and forgo the majority vote since that is what is most democratic. I’ll set up the GoFund me for you if you’re still not satisfied.

yep, in theory it could pass... but fact is whatever future agreement that is made will never make everyone happy.

Not everybody will be happy, but at least the NC should make a good faith attempt to negotiate something that is fair across the board.