They are advertising a 14.6% pay raise over the next 9-18 months if this TA passes. What they’re not telling you is that 5% of that 14% is ALREADY BOUGHT AND PAID FOR in the Pandemic Recovery LOA that 58% of United pilots voted YES on in 2020.

Of course, the company needs to show profit for 4 rolling quarters, but eventually the shareholders will demand they show profit, so it will happen sooner or later.

So, you’re really only getting 9% with this TA, plus all the stuff we’re giving away.

VOTE NO/SIT ON HANDS/DO NOTHING = 5%

VOTE YES = 14% plus givebacks.

A 5% profit margin across 4 rolling quarters might be a lot harder to achieve than you think given current fuel prices and potential economic issues. Airlines always talk up future earnings but rarely hit the targets.

Exactly. It’s an insult to everyone that they are trying to sell this as a 14% raise. Do they think we are stupid?

Kirby has been saying consistently that margins will be better than ever with the changes they made during the pandemic.

In the Executive Summary PDF above, it states:

For context, from 2014-2019 we exceeded 5% pre-tax margin in every calendar year.

What are the chances that we actually get this 5% increase? We have had 0 quarters so far that met the criteria. Q2 may actually be profitable, but will it even have a 5% margin? Even if it does, then what happens once this summer revenge travel stops and the economy slows down from its rapid bounce post-COVID? (Not to mention if a recession actually occurs). 4 profitable quarters above 5% margin is a minimum of 1 year away, if not 2 years or more…

I’m definitely not planning on getting the LOA 5% pay raise if this TA fails. I believe we will be stuck with the current contract for a while.

I don’t have the numbers or reference in front of me, but iirc it’s 4 consecutive quarters with an average over five…so theoretically if Q2 and Q3 are real bangers, we could see it that soon. Likelihood? Idk, but Scooter seems pretty high on Q2.

Yes. Yes they do.

What’s the worse than can happen if we’re stuck with this contract “for a while”?

The worse will happen if we vote in this CONCESSIONARY contract. I didn’t even have to read Section 3 to know this thing is loaded with way too many gives and not enough gets. Vote it in and we lose a ton and for what - a few dollars?

A 14.6% compounded raise, and the time value of money.