What is the new normal?
 

Saw this question posted elsewhere and thought this would be a good discussion for it…..With the absurd hiring boom + majors changing 1000 turbine from required to preferred, what are the lower 121 turbine times you’ve heard people getting interviews at UA with? I’ve heard 750 turbine routinely. Anything under that?

I got hired without any turbine time because I was able to substitute 15 years of driving cars with manual transmissions, so I’d say the new normal is pretty rad

Wet ink ATP and a heartbeat is the new normal.

Looking for specifically what turbine time

there isn’t a clearly definable new normal

The hiring market isn’t steady state. People are being hired faster than they can be regenerated.

The company takes the best available. Three months later the best available is different

It is clearly trending towards FAA minimums

No one here has that info, but I can tell you that the average age of a new hire is around 35, with the same median. So whatever the average 35 year old would have in terms of hours would be the norm.

I’m not at United but had a kid in my JS 2 months ago that was at F9 with a class date at United. He had 1900tt and 350 turbine when he interviewed at United.

Nitpicking… new average and new normal could be very different.

Something like 1.5sd below mean probably comes across as the new normal. Someone who has peers, isn’t the 8 ball etc. that seems like something closer to late 20’s 2000tt

I’m not really sure what you’re saying. 35 is the average today. Those are actual numbers, not I met a dude guesses. If the median were far off from average, that would indicate that the age was skewed towards younger or older based on outliers, but it’s the same.

A similar mean and median mean the curve is relatively symmetrical. It doesn’t tell you how wide it spreads.

10 guys age 34, 10 guys 35, 10 guys 36
10 guys 24, 10 guys 35, 10 guys 46

Both have the same mean and median

What I’m saying is when people say “what’s normal” they aren’t asking what’s average, they’re asking at what point getting hired is plausible without especially good luck.

given that the minimum hire age is twelve years under 35 and the maximum age is 25+ years over 35, a mean/median of 35 means a lot of 20-something guys are getting hired.

Especially good luck is not the average. Those are the outliers… averages are what indicate where the “normal” person is getting hired. Any deviation from that isn’t “normal.” While age isn’t the perfect descriptor of flying experience, it probably correlates pretty well. The std dev is pretty tight too. Under 30 is 20%, 60% is 30-40.

I don’t think people are asking for the bare minimums as those are already, well, the minimums.

What we’ll never know are the demographics of in the applicant pool, which itself can shape the CJO pool. I would guess there are plenty of civilians that self-eliminate by not applying early enough. Military pilots usually don’t have the option to apply in their 20s.

Lots of new hires who were previously Skywest captains….but only for about 6 months.

Let’s not forget

35 or so years ago most new hires were under 30

some airlines would not even look at applicant over 30

Having a heartbeat, a good attitude, a rad Instagram page and preferably few failures that you can tell us about with a great attitude.

What? You've been flying 121 since before covid? Woah we got an old salty dog here!

Similar/same, but it was more competitive when I was hired.

I was able to check the “3 on the tree” box though. Pretty sure that did it.

How times have changed….

People with manual tranny time should automatically get the guppy.

Wait.. Are we allowed to say “manual tranny”?

And this one wins the internet today.

I got hired Dec 77, turned 31 Jan 78 when my app would have been sent to the circular file.

I’d say that’s close, and I’d add in the vast majority came from the military.

But that only applied to the “trunk” carriers like UAL, AMR, EAL, TWA, BNF, etc. “Local Service” carriers like Allegheny, Ozark, North Central were less choosy and more flexible who they hired.

Even the trunks went through their own little burble, and hired very low time people at the end of the 60’s. They even advertised in Flying and other magazines. Of course, all those pilots went to engineer seats, and most, if not all, were furloughed by 1972.

Exactly, doing the bleed panel from push to delayed engine start and a bleeds off takeoff feels just like driving home from the employee lot in stop and go traffic

I seriously don’t understand the perceived complexity of the 737 overhead panel. It’s literally a few hour process to “get”, and then a total afterthought forever after.

Now, a manual tranny takes a bit more study.

Especially considering that the system schematic is on the switch panel. I guess others have a different definition of hard.

Not sure about total time, but in my 7 years as a CA @ this airline, the experience/quality of our newer pilots is noticably not as it good as it was pre COVID.

I agree

filler

Civilian
2400 Total Time
1300 Turboprop/Multi

Hired in 1997.

Intern?

9000 TT
6000 Turbine/ME

Received a Nancy Stuke congratulations letter in ‘96.

These days?

https://capnaux.com/wp-content/uploa...lown-Pilot.jpg Only a clown nose for the ensuing show required.

And/or SaD, inter-company x-fer, etc.

12000 TT
10500 Turbine
5000 TPIC

Dark Decade, +

Spring 2016

Still convinced it was those years of three on the tree that did it…

I wonder what the rest of the resume looked like