It happens at DAL through vacancy bids. Not new hire drops.

You should look further than just having a UAL pilot forced into the seat. The company looked further. They're beyond 2028. Smart move on their part.
You've said what you think won't happen. Think about the WHY. Why would they want that? Why negotiate for it if there isn't a plan to use it if need be?

What is the nefarious scheme you think they’re hatching? I agree they want it for a reason, but I don’t think it’s nearly as big of a deal as you do.

Isn’t age 67 going to solve the unfilled Captain issue for everyone, at least for a few years?

It probably won’t hurt, but I wouldn’t think it would have that huge of an effect. You’d only gain those who are currently approaching 65 who are also NB CAs and also not already on LTD,

They'll have less incentive to improve scheduling provisions in future contracts, making future improvements more costly in negotiating capital. Every pipeline problem will be forever solved. Instead of having to improve reserve even further in this AIP, add pay and and negotiating for forced seats was cheaper for them.
It could turn out that the final language is good enough that CA seats won't show up in a new hire drop. I really hope that's the case. Hope. But I think the company wanted this for more than insurance. They played the longer game. Smart.

See I almost completely disagree. This is short term insurance. This contract will outlast the worst of the pilot shortage in my opinion. This seems like more about ensuring United next goals if for some reason this isn’t enough to move the needle on upgrades. In a decade when things are stagnant again it’ll be moot.

I do appreciate your take though. Everything needs to be viewed skeptically and I appreciate your perspective even if I don’t necessarily agree.

Likewise. filler

If I may add, can you envision a scenario where seeing forced left seats show up in the drops before all of the reserve improvements are implemented? The company could have less incentive to implement the improvements sooner than later. Along with having the implementation schedule in mind as an additional reason why they would ask for allowing new hires to be awarded/forced into the left seat. I bet their ask will be implemented right away. They could more easily drag their feet on implementing the reserve improvements.

I hope that won't be the case. Hope.

excellent point. Have you brought that up to a rep? I know we have some sharp ALPA people working on language/implementation but I’m sure stuff can slip through the cracks. Would be great to get them to tie new hire upgrades to fully implementing reserve QOL items.