Forced Captain Upgrade Timeline
 

For someone who is an FO in a base where a large amoumt of these forced captains were sent (DEN EWR SFO) when will the first of those people actually go to upgrade and get off the FO list? I assume we will see leaps and bounds for those junior to them on the list who were not forced CA? We must be starting to get close, right? Another 6 months maybe?

Given the “forced upgrade” verbiage I kind of think this might be trolling, but I’ll bite.They won’t be eligible to go to training until they are off probation and then factor in a couple more months to finish training from there. When did captain vacancies start dropping in new hire class? November I think? So, figure probably Jan ‘25 before they are actually in the left seat.

^^^THIS^^^ if applicants don’t want to be “forced” into CA bids then I’m sure SWA, JBLU will take them… they are still hiring right? 😏

Selfishly, I was more so saying when will they be "off" the FO list versus actually on the line in the left seat...so sounds like roughly November

If it’s just the seniority impact you’re looking for then, yes. For the newhire upgrade, November/December-ish is a good estimate. But don’t forget that at the same time captain vacancies started becoming available in the new hire drops, they were also available to anyone on probation. Those pilots will start becoming eligible as soon as they are off probation ranging anywhere from one to 11 months. So there will also be a steady flow of those FOs leaving the FO list as well between now and then.

Actually, it's a two-fer. Not only will they then be off the FO list but with more CAs available the lines of flying can be expanded increasing the number of those remaining FOs who will then be above the g-line. Sort of a Mohammed going to the mountain AND the mountain coming to Mohammed situation...
🙂

Now this is what i'm talking about! Good point

Yeah, but Nov/Dec 23 might have 10 total. Compared to the normal flow of bodies exiting NBFO for whatever reason IDK that it will really be noticeable before ... well maybe ever ... but I'd bet several months at least.

When the 8 ball 🎱 gets a leftover CA upgrade slot they didn't want, it is indeed forced. Is it forced every BI class? No, but when push comes to shove it is forced.

They actually aren't atleast for 2024. However given yesterdays announcement, its almost inexorable that hiring here will slow as well, not saying it will stop but I don't see why there is a need for 50 a week anymore. Very likely that there won't be a need for the CA slots in INDOC as well since this is all dealing with the Seven Hundred Thirty Seven. A black swan event this is NOT, maybe an ugkly duckling.