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Originally Posted by Russell Case
(Post 3847296)
Boom is set to break M1.0 later this year, and then the jet goes to Udvar Hazy and they have to develop the “actual aircraft.” I can tell you Boom will be closer to 2036 than 2026. Ask me how I know. Sorry for the off subject post; good luck on your decision. Everybody’s different.
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Originally Posted by 11atsomto
(Post 3847735)
DEN widebody is super senior (only 787 no triple), and even then there are only like 3 sort of 4 destinations I believe ( MUC,NRT, FRA and LHR via LAX) most junior FO is about a June/July 23 hire most junior line holder is 8000 numbers more senior system wide...also NO vacancies last bid.
At 42...which is how old I am....you likely know what area works best for you and those around you. Narrow body DEN is not senior at all. I cannot and will not speak for the Seven Hundred Thirty Seven but for da bus: if you are flying a widebody at AA, it's going to be VERY Sobering comparatively. I never thought a specific base would be a deal breaker fo rme, but I can't seem to find a place where I can feel the way I felt living in Denver. Other option would be living in Denver and commuting to DFW, but then I'd be a commuter and that would suck big time. |
Begin rant:
The "you might get furloughed if you switch companies" fear is just overblown. 100% overblown. It's fighting the last war and yes there's plenty of war strories from the lost decade but that battle is over. Pre 9/11 you had SEVEN major airlines that all ran about 60% load factor, had a lot of three pilot airplanes and still had contracts that werern't much changed from pre-deregulation days. In the 15 years following 9/11 you had 9/11 ... duh the great recession age 65 retrirement of 3 pilot aircraft multiple rounds of bankruptcies and mergers that GREATLY increased pilot efficiency (ie decreased pilot demand) You now have 3 airlines, all running 85% load factor, with two pilot planes and relatively efficient contracts. Until they can run an airplane without two pilots seated (and I think that's coming) things are gonna be ok. There are not huge, low-hanging structural changes to be made that will crater demand for pilots for a decade. Furloughs, if they come, are likely to be short and won't come close to negating the advanteages of 25+ years with a top-tier contract. End rant |
Originally Posted by CRJJ
(Post 3847778)
I never thought a specific base would be a deal breaker for me, but I can't seem to find a place where I can feel the way I felt living in Denver.
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Originally Posted by VacancyBid
(Post 3847780)
Begin rant:
The "you might get furloughed if you switch companies" fear is just overblown. 100% overblown. It's fighting the last war and yes there's plenty of war strories from the lost decade but that battle is over. Pre 9/11 you had SEVEN major airlines that all ran about 60% load factor, had a lot of three pilot airplanes and still had contracts that werern't much changed from pre-deregulation days. In the 15 years following 9/11 you had 9/11 ... duh the great recession age 65 retrirement of 3 pilot aircraft multiple rounds of bankruptcies and mergers that GREATLY increased pilot efficiency (ie decreased pilot demand) You now have 3 airlines, all running 85% load factor, with two pilot planes and relatively efficient contracts. Until they can run an airplane without two pilots seated (and I think that's coming) things are gonna be ok. There are not huge, low-hanging structural changes to be made that will crater demand for pilots for a decade. Furloughs, if they come, are likely to be short and won't come close to negating the advanteages of 25+ years with a top-tier contract. End rant Off the top of my head, UA’s extreme growth plan def offers higher risk to furlough, with intl being the first thing to be swept away.. Tho, I wouldn’t make a 40 yr career decision based off of that susceptibility to a high degree. I was already leaning to stay with Delta, I’m here, in my rhythm, have some Sen#, & living in base. The swap over to UA would boil down to simply wanting to be there for this projected UA Next growth, which many ppl seem say is a risky thing to throw away 1.5 yrs/10% of the SenList at DL for, and I be moving from DL HQ to what sounds like UA’s most underwhelming hub (IAH). Also, that id be NB A or WB B at DL before I would at UA at this point. Even since being hired I’ve had no complaints and schedule bas been easy.. hard to gamble it all for a new start somewhere else. In light of that, I’ve told UA to not worry about me moving forward, but was extremely grateful for the opportunity. |
Originally Posted by RippinClapBombs
(Post 3847788)
They don’t call Denver “California East” randomly. I would have thought your first pick for an AA base would have been Los Angeles— not CLT then MIA. Rent a place in Long Beach (small niche coffee/bars that resembles suburban Denver). It’s a 30 min drive to LAX, 1 hour to the mountains. LAX gate construction is finalizing so the WB ops should trend more junior again.
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One thing to consider is the election. The outcome will have an effect on the economy. The greener grass at this moment is only a snapshot and can change very quickly.
Junior pilots need to build seniority behind them instead of reaching for the big shiny jet. You are off probation and have 1600 below you with a super job right now. How long to get those numbers in the next two years at UAL? My money says…I don’t know. Good luck! |
Originally Posted by at6d
(Post 3847890)
One thing to consider is the election. The outcome will have an effect on the economy. The greener grass at this moment is only a snapshot and can change very quickly.
Junior pilots need to build seniority behind them instead of reaching for the big shiny jet. You are off probation and have 1600 below you with a super job right now. How long to get those numbers in the next two years at UAL? My money says…I don’t know. Good luck!
Originally Posted by CowBoyz47
(Post 3847791)
In light of that, I’ve told UA to not worry about me moving forward, but was extremely grateful for the opportunity.
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Originally Posted by Margaritaville
(Post 3847753)
If it ends up being ready in 2036 you can probably count on it having one pilot or even no pilots. Nobody likes it but that's the direction this industry is accelerating and the only thing saving us right now is that currently certified aircraft (with the possible exception of the A350) can't be retrofitted in a cost acceptable way. Future certified aircraft won't make that mistake.
Single seat ops will seem brilliant up until a single pilot plane crashes and wipes out decades worth of costs savings. There is plenty of data available on the crash rates of 2, 1 and 0 manned aircraft, and its is eye opening to say the least, and that’s before you talk about the security issues that come along with it. |
Originally Posted by CRJJ
(Post 3847731)
Yet another similar situation!. 42 yo, 1.5 years at AA, 1900 pilots junior to me. I moved out of Denver to an AA base and I miss living there A LOT.
Airbus driver right now, flew 737 in the past, not a big fan but wouldn’t mind too much if I could live in Denver. Would I be too crazy to even try going to UA?. We haven’t hired in a while, classes start again in January so some movement coming. No kids, no wife, and I miss flying WB, but I understand DEN WB is extremely senior, probably like DFW WB for us. Thoughts? |
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