We weren’t far off! I think the bigger variable is the WB deliveries as that plays a big factor with NB upgrades. Fingers crossed!

This is a really good breakdown with reasonable numbers based on varying growth projections.

The 22,000-24,000 pilot seniority list makes perfect sense based on United NEXT projections for net airframe growth. That said, I have no idea how they were able to throw out a 28,000-30,000 pilot group size - with a straight face - to new hires just 1-2 years ago.

Hopefully it's not all going to get staffed via displacement bids... and I don't just mean 756 west coast...

We have a large number of 777 out of service presently... the duration of some of these remains anybody's guess.

Displacements off an aging and parked WB fleet that's being slowly retired can most certainly preclude new WB upgrades and motion!

It all depends how many senior people stay as NBFO (or WBFO). Just looked an open day trip NBFO. Desired by 10, 5 of those would be in the top 50% as NB captains, 1 could hold WB captain in base. If nobody bypasses with a single fleet/single base I agree with you, but with all the options at UAL it becomes more fuzzy IMO.

yes the details are fuzzy but there is some systemwide seniority that will hold sfo nbca … and its not 98%. Is it 66? is it 75? You can argue. One way or another, United will stop massive sustained growth soon, and it will then take awhile to go from 100% to 75%

Absolutely. I totally agree. And I think as growth slows I think it will take make better seniority to hold NBCA. Required seniority was at an all time low during record growth a few years ago, and has since crept up, validating my theory somewhat.