Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 4008746)

The straight is effectively shut down. All maritime insurers have withdrawn coverage. There are already 750 ships holding out waiting on insurance coming available.

Originally Posted by Grumble (Post 4008527)

of communist Romania, and the situation on the ground in Iran, the current military operations not withstanding. As you’re aware the regular army and the IRGC are not the same thing, and if you know anything about the targets being hit, aside from the regime, the IRGC has taken the brunt. The messaging and targeting has been very clear, it’s the regime and that security apparatus being taken out. The Artesh isn’t going unscathed but they aren’t the bullseye. Just like in Romania, you get the regular army to turn their guns on the regime/IRGC, and back the people, there’s the beginning of your end state. Regime opposition can start putting back together a pre-1979 revolution govt they all want back, either bringing back the Shahs son, democratically or some combination of options. Bottom line, you have a very large resistance, a decapitated regime, and a rudderless security apparatus. However this isn’t Libya, the population is a much more coalesced. See below for more “strategy” in the potential third order effects.

Originally Posted by Grumble (Post 4008527)

Think about this… just maybe this isn’t really about Iran. It is, but it’s also about China (and Russia).

Between Venezuela, and now Iran, China has lost two major oil and energy providers. Russia has now lost a major weapons provider for their efforts in Ukraine. No one is talking about (yet) the effects this will have on the Ukraine war. It also just proved, again, Russian and Chinese defense systems to be completely worthless. China now needs to really rethink whether they can really pull of an invasion of Taiwan with US backed opposition.

This administration is solidifying power and control (and thus security) in the western hemisphere, while the second and third order effects haven’t been fully appreciated yet across other geopolitical issues.

Originally Posted by sailingfun;[url=tel:4008746

4008746[/url]]The straight is effectively shut down. All maritime insurers have withdrawn coverage. There are already 750 ships holding out waiting on insurance coming available.

Originally Posted by ThumbsUp;[url=tel:4008773

4008773[/url]]I did see that the government will insure those tankers, but I doubt there will be a lot of takers until Iran is neutralized.

Originally Posted by Grumble (Post 4009017)

This right here. Iran didn’t shut down the SOH, the insurance companies did.

Originally Posted by Grumble (Post 4009017)

Bandar Abbas is basically scrap metal, 90% of their brown water Navy is now sunk, they don’t have the capability to genuinely close the straight, but they can harass some stragglers. It’s just about appeasing the insurance companies and things will start moving again.

Originally Posted by Grumble (Post 4009017)

This right here. Iran didn’t shut down the SOH, the insurance companies did. Bandar Abbas is basically scrap metal, 90% of their brown water Navy is now sunk, they don’t have the capability to genuinely close the straight, but they can harass some stragglers. It’s just about appeasing the insurance companies and things will start moving again.

Originally Posted by rickair7777 (Post 4008894)

Ukraine taught China that the west won't sit idle and turn a blind eye to the blatant redrawing of borders by force.


They are proceeding with extreme caution now,

Originally Posted by rickair7777 (Post 4008894)

I think their only practical means of taking on Taiwan would be to blockade the island and try to starve them out... hoping like hell the US doesn't get involved (they are patient, and would presumably wait for a compliant US administration... which is to say not this one, or likely the next one.

Originally Posted by 11atsomto (Post 4009112)

In My (very liberal) east coast municipality, there are three flags flying from the town hall: United States, Our State Flag, and Ukraine. Maybe going out on a limb here but we will unfortunately never see the Taiwanese flag flown at any public building. Conversely I have pictures on my own phone of Sen.Chuck Schumer (D-NY) waving the flag of PR China during last years Lunar New Year's parade, I doubt he even knows what the Taiwanese flag looks like, let alone be willing to be photographed waving it. Furthermore Russia is an easy boogie man: they are hated by older folk who remember the Cold War and they are hated by the younger liberal crowd because they "interfered" with our election. The other elephant in the room is Russia is caucasian and China is not.......much easier in today's day and age to frame an enemy narrative, where those who question military support will be unable to counter with a racism narrative.



In the People's Republic of China if you are under 14 years of age you can use TikTok for 4 things: 1.Science Experiments you can do at home, 2.Virtual Museum Exhibits, 3. Homework help, 4. Patriotism videos and even then it is limited to 40 minutes a day. It's almost as if they know technology is influencing children and they want to limit its effects, yet they send the unfiltered unabated opium version to us. Why do you think that is? The number 1 aspirational career for kids in China is astronaut where as in our country its influencer. You let that play out a few generations......many possible outcomes: some worse than others but all bad.
Along with placing spies in very high positions in municipal governments and state governments (see Gov.Kathy Hochul, Linda Sun) https://abcnews.com/Politics/linda-s...y?id=113347742

These are just some examples among many others of waging asymmetric warfare against us, because they still believe I think that in a. conventional war they still would not be able to defeat us.