Say hello to liberalized scope UNITED
#121
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Apr 2006
Posts: 2,750
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From: 737 CA
Well, if your truly an ualratt, DAL's hourly pay will be leading you by 33% come Jan 1, 2013....that is unless your an Airbus guy, then it's 42.5%. I'm sure the company would love to continue this cost advantage for as long as possible.
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#122
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 420
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Here's the problem. The regional model is broken. Consolidation is occurring at the regional level. But BK is occurring too. In 2007 Pinnacle airlines bought Colgan, & then in 2010(or 2011?) they bought Mesaba. Well Pinnacle went BK, & shutdown Colgan. Now Pinnacle is being cut in half. Comair has been shut down. American Eagle is BK.
My point is this. These regionals have for years relied on gravy train fee for departure contracts where they were paid by the block hour, fuel was paid for, mx was paid for, etc. Well these contracts are no more. And now these regionals fight so hard for the scraps the Legacy management teams offer that they take it at a loss. So they can't make money.
Add to that, they've been struggling to staff themselves for years. In 2010, Pinnacle airlines was hiring FO's with temporary paper commercial certificates to fly 50 seat jets! The ink signature of the DPE was barely dry. So now that a C-172 costs $150 an hour to rent, there are very few people training for an airline job. And when the retirements start & the RJ drivers start going to the Majors, who will replace them?
There leverage exists with the labor. The pendulum is swinging back our way. Management doesn't have BK on their side anymore.
My point is this. These regionals have for years relied on gravy train fee for departure contracts where they were paid by the block hour, fuel was paid for, mx was paid for, etc. Well these contracts are no more. And now these regionals fight so hard for the scraps the Legacy management teams offer that they take it at a loss. So they can't make money.
Add to that, they've been struggling to staff themselves for years. In 2010, Pinnacle airlines was hiring FO's with temporary paper commercial certificates to fly 50 seat jets! The ink signature of the DPE was barely dry. So now that a C-172 costs $150 an hour to rent, there are very few people training for an airline job. And when the retirements start & the RJ drivers start going to the Majors, who will replace them?
There leverage exists with the labor. The pendulum is swinging back our way. Management doesn't have BK on their side anymore.
Unfortunately your argument is flawed, Skywest Inc is making money even in the Obama economy. True, you are about the others. Skywest Inc is a monster, something like 7000 pilots and cash on hand. Also a better balance sheet compared to most airlines out there! Alliances, Regionals and Code Shares are the future of this industry, and that's not a good thing but fact!
Like most guys said the genie is out of the bottle. So now guys have a decision to make, stay at the regional or move on? I don't care what you guys say no buddy knows what's gonna happen in the next 10 years...no buddy!
This whole thing smells like a setup and were allowing it for cash and threats of BK.
#123
Moderator
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 13,088
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From: B757/767
The bottom line is the first significant contract post BK from a VERY profitable company resulted in more large RJ's on property. That in itself proves just how collectivelly stupid we all are. After all there are those that consider 50 seaters getting parked to be some great victory. GMAFB! SpecialTracking sees the road ahead as clearly as I do. We are gonna get housed by management at the scope table.
No, bringing flying back to mainline is the victory. 1300 RJ jobs gone. 88 narrow bodies coming to mainline before any additional 76 seaters come. But most importantly, a block hour ratio that guarantees the regionals WON'T grow while mainline shrinks. If management wants to use 70 additional 76 seaters, they'll have to use the mainline NB aircraft MORE.
Not to mention the Codeshare and joint venture protections. Or the guarantee that Skywest, RAH, or TranStates can't fly C Series size aircraft under Codeshare carrying Delta passengers.
#124
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 400
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Sorry XJT however you are the one with a flawed argument. The regionals will continue to be a part of this industry but they are far from being the "future" as you call it.
Anything and everything in this business going forward is tied to one major factor and that is how to move more people, sell more things to them and do it by burning less fuel. You can't do that with the current RJ technology in the long run, even the E jets and the CRJ 700/900 let alone the CRJ 200.
The flying is going back to mainline in the long run not because of scope or what a regional or group of pilots want...it's going back because of burn. If you take a A320NEO or 737 MAX and pack it high density (ergo the extra rows being put in the UAL Busses), sell all those pax all the goodies and fees and fly that jet at 15% less burn what you got in a one hell of a money making machine. If the current C Series or newer E Jets could match it, trust me the majors would be ordering them.
See any orders for that class of jets by the majors? Nope.
The regionals are pinning their future on scope relief and if that doesn't happen then 76 seat and lower markets. Thing is they need new technology and lo and behold GE and Bombardier are working on the Q400X and the CF34NG engine. If the Q400X proves reliable it will be as much a game changer for the regionals as the 787 will prove to be for the majors. If they can make it fly well, it's an incredibly efficient airplane. I'd also suspect feasibility studies of re-engining existing CRJ 700/900 and E-jets with the CF34NG is underway.
There is no work group out there who will be giving up major scope to the regionals IMHO. Outsourcing has become deeply disliked by not only pilots but about every middle to lower tier worker at any major airline so it's not just the pilots who are interested in keeping their careers....it's just about everybody. That's a tough sell.
I agree the regionals have a future but it's going to look a lot like it used to. Lost of props buzzing about and quite a few jets doing routes a 737 or Bus can't turn a buck on. But it will be a far cry from the size it is now and the regionals will slowly return to their status as support and augmentation flying rather than a main supply of available seats...and it's not because what some ornery pilots want in scope....it's because those airplanes just cannot generate enough revenue to counter act the price of gas as the global economy turns in the later part of this decade.
Anything and everything in this business going forward is tied to one major factor and that is how to move more people, sell more things to them and do it by burning less fuel. You can't do that with the current RJ technology in the long run, even the E jets and the CRJ 700/900 let alone the CRJ 200.
The flying is going back to mainline in the long run not because of scope or what a regional or group of pilots want...it's going back because of burn. If you take a A320NEO or 737 MAX and pack it high density (ergo the extra rows being put in the UAL Busses), sell all those pax all the goodies and fees and fly that jet at 15% less burn what you got in a one hell of a money making machine. If the current C Series or newer E Jets could match it, trust me the majors would be ordering them.
See any orders for that class of jets by the majors? Nope.
The regionals are pinning their future on scope relief and if that doesn't happen then 76 seat and lower markets. Thing is they need new technology and lo and behold GE and Bombardier are working on the Q400X and the CF34NG engine. If the Q400X proves reliable it will be as much a game changer for the regionals as the 787 will prove to be for the majors. If they can make it fly well, it's an incredibly efficient airplane. I'd also suspect feasibility studies of re-engining existing CRJ 700/900 and E-jets with the CF34NG is underway.
There is no work group out there who will be giving up major scope to the regionals IMHO. Outsourcing has become deeply disliked by not only pilots but about every middle to lower tier worker at any major airline so it's not just the pilots who are interested in keeping their careers....it's just about everybody. That's a tough sell.
I agree the regionals have a future but it's going to look a lot like it used to. Lost of props buzzing about and quite a few jets doing routes a 737 or Bus can't turn a buck on. But it will be a far cry from the size it is now and the regionals will slowly return to their status as support and augmentation flying rather than a main supply of available seats...and it's not because what some ornery pilots want in scope....it's because those airplanes just cannot generate enough revenue to counter act the price of gas as the global economy turns in the later part of this decade.
#125
Moderator
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 13,088
Likes: 0
From: B757/767
Unfortunately your argument is flawed, Skywest Inc is making money even in the Obama economy. True, you are about the others. Skywest Inc is a monster, something like 7000 pilots and cash on hand. Also a better balance sheet compared to most airlines out there! Alliances, Regionals and Code Shares are the future of this industry, and that's not a good thing but fact!
Like most guys said the genie is out of the bottle. So now guys have a decision to make, stay at the regional or move on? I don't care what you guys say no buddy knows what's gonna happen in the next 10 years...no buddy!
This whole thing smells like a setup and were allowing it for cash and threats of BK.
Like most guys said the genie is out of the bottle. So now guys have a decision to make, stay at the regional or move on? I don't care what you guys say no buddy knows what's gonna happen in the next 10 years...no buddy!
This whole thing smells like a setup and were allowing it for cash and threats of BK.
Skywest is making money off long term ffd contracts they signed years ago. Those aren't being offered by Legacy's anymore. The Skywest CEO has been quoted saying that many regionals take flying contracts at a loss. That has made it very difficult lately for Skywest to compete. RAH is looking to dump Frontier, as they can't make money. ExpressJet is full of 230+ aging, fuel inefficient EMB135/145 aircraft, with no new aircraft on order. Skywest is taking a net loss of airframes as their 50 seaters get parked. ASA will lose 50 seaters too. Comair was shut down. Colgan was shut down. Pinnacle is BK. Mesa has no more 50 seat aircraft left(except their Go operation) Long term CPAs like the 10 year CAL/XE agreement are a thing of the past. Just look at what's happening. Most contracts signed now are for 5 years or less, & maintenance is no longer covered by the Legacy/Major.
I understand your constant hope and dreams of regionals taking over all domestic feed. It's how you justify your decision to stay at XE. But you need to look at the facts. Regionals are shrinking. The model is broken.
#126
Line Holder
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 46
Likes: 0
What is Delta's scope worth to us UCH pilots if there are no aircraft orders included like the 717's? How could they possibly justify Delta's scope if there is no mention of future narrow body orders for mainline pilots?
#127
Your sliding's also got you on your back on scope. From previous posting you delighted (like most of us) with the fact that market economics were forcing a reduction of RJ flying across the industry. Yet the smell of few fresh grains of beans will cull that euphoria, and your appetite for much boarder reductions. Guess with your seniority and dollars signs flashing in your eyes, you're certain to be immune from that disease. One's got to first have the ticket before they can cash in.
From the shape of their heads and their instinctive behaviors, DAL and UAL are two different beasts. What UAL need is a contract that reflects the nature of it's venomous character...
#129
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 420
Likes: 0
I never said anything about regionals being the future. What is our future is what's out on the ramps all over the world and it says Star Alliance etc...mark my words. There not building those large RJ's to hang in a museum. It's up to you guys to keep them in house. But what I see with my crystal ball is management using the courts to get there way. The president is being set right now at AMR. Once it is, its just a mater of time till the rest fallow. Trust me I'm not advocating this its just the future and if you don't see it, well your head is in the sand.
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