When will bidding mania begin?
 

Now that the ISL is done, does anyone have any insight/strong rumor on when the bidding festivities begin?

I took some current staffing numbers from a different post and the departure info from a chief pilot communication to come up with a back of the napkin analysis of the 737.

Disclaimer - "I don't work in Manpower Planning, but I did spend the night at a Holiday Inn Express."

The under/over column is the number of captains understaffed or overstaffed based on what the staffing would be if you directly used the Percent of Total 737 departures to determine the correct staffing for the individual Base. Obviously, this is dull crayon on the level of precision, but at least it give a general idea of where the bids are likely to go. If somebody wants to pull down actual hours in and out of the airports, you could get much more accurate.

base --Captains ---Percentage of Captains --Dep / Month --percent of departures---under/over

EWR------352---------------23.9%--------------------2060-------------------15.4%--------------- 125 over

IAH-------694---------------47.2%--------------------3604-------------------27.0%----------------297 over

CLE-------125---------------8.5%----------------------549---------------------4.1%-----------------65over

ORD-------77----------------5.2%---------------------2317-------------------17.3%----------------178under

DEN-------85----------------5.8%---------------------1704--------------------12.8%---------------102under

SFO-------40----------------2.7%---------------------1924--------------------14.4%----------------172under

LAX-------97----------------6.6%---------------------1203---------------------9.0%-----------------35under

IAD-------0------------------0.0%---------------------665---------------------5.0%----new base? 73under

total----1470-----------------------------------------14026



So based on that it looks like there will be alot of SFO and ORD 737 bids coming.

I think that the IAH and EWR bases will likely see an increase in size of the A320 base in each location, but I haven't really looked at those numbers yet.

Finally, I assume there will be a 787 LAX base opened in short order as well.

So, anybody have any good rumors on when the bidding will begin?

Within weeks and more info on the bidding process itself as early as this week. (source: SVP Flight Ops)

Flight Ops update, 13 Sept
And I don't think it will be a "mania." We can only bid into vacancies and from what I've heard of the LUAL bidding process those vacancies don't come in hundreds at a time like they did at LCAL. I also think they'll proceed slowly to avoid displacements because of the multiple training cycles it can cause.

However I do think those sitting at the bottom of a CA or FO 737 seat may be in for an age-65 type stagnation as most vacancies will be filled by people senior to you. For the OTS hires, the intermixed LUAL hires are taking their more senior FO positions already in the Oct bid month, and hundreds more will be trickling in as they accept recalls for a few years. For the CAs, the junior LUAL CA is at about 6300 and the junior LCAL CA is at 9300. Those 1714 LUAL FOs in between will be considering 737 left seat vacancies and that may also take years to settle out.

They can only bid for vacancies unless there is a bump. With the parking of the LUAL 757s, the bumps will come soon and they can bid anything their seniority can hold.

True, but that's why I say they'll proceed slowly.

Correct. The bumps will take a while to filter through. Combined with vacancy bids, the return of the 400 to ORD, it's departure at LAX, this will very interesting to say the least. I'm sure they are on top of it.

while I agee our Vacancy bids have been smaller, that is because they came out monthly. I remember back in the glory days some monthly bids with 300 awards! Since we are now every so slightly larger than we were then, it wouldn't surprise me to see some pretty large bids coming out pretty soon. I agree that they will be somewhat muted by the fact that the company will likely not want to "bump" anymore pilots than they have to, so they may just manage the flying out of other domiciles during the coming months until attrition helps right size things

The number of vacancies will also depends on equipment deployments and shifting, there may be a surprising number of vacancies in previous L-UAL bases like SFO, IAD and LAX where B737 will be deployed on a mass scale.

Question: can the post-2010 "new hires" (off-the-street folks) bid to the 747 or are they considered CAL and subject to the 5-yr fence? Yes, I know we are so junior that it won't matter, but I am thinking theoretically here.

That breakdown jives with the rumors I have heard from a "special assignment" pilot working at Willis.

DEN, ORD, SFO grow the 737 positions. More Airbuses for IAH, as 737s get redeployed. Possibly a 737 base IAD Haven't heard anything on the 787 but the writing on the wall looks like LAX is inevitable.

Thanks ST. I needed a GOOD laugh :D

Sled

The fence no longer applies after 5 years or if their are insufficient bidders from the legacy airline (United in the case of the 47) So, if through some massive shift in bidding patterns, the 747 F/O position is going to go unfilled on a bid (prior to the 25th 787 showing up) the position would then be open to anyone on the seniority list. So, an off the street new hire could theoretically get a bid, but it would first be open to everyone on the list from Legacy CAL, so I would say that is extraordinarily unlikely!!

Fences are for 2010 pre merger list of L-CAL and L-UAL pilots, so technically pilots hired after 2010 merger are considered new United inc. pilots that do not fit this category. So, yes you can bid it if you can hold it.
I believe this will be a huge subject to interpretation by many, but it spells out pre merger for both. :-)
Here's the detail info from CAL-UAL ISL Opinion and Award 9.3.13:

B. Conditions and Restrictions
5. For a period of five (5) years beginning with the Bid Period in which the ISL is first implemented, or until the carrier takes delivery of its twenty-fifth (25th) B787 aircraft, whichever occurs sooner, no premerger Continental pilot may be awarded a Captain or First Officer vacancy on a B747 or A350 aircraft or displaced to one and no premerger United pilot may be awarded a Captain or First Officer vacancy on a B787 aircraft or displaced to one.

For LCAL pilots new to this system, pay attention to the power of unadvertised vacancies, particularly as it involves covering attrition as senior pilots retire and the resulting importance of "standing" bids.

Example: UAL Posts a small vacancy bid with only 40 777 CA positions (~10% of next year's attrition)

Is this a bid with 40 vacancies? Nope.

In an imaginary "stovepipe" scenario this will result in 40 CAs bidding off the 767 which results in 40 CAs bidding off the 737 which results in 40 777 FOs bidding 737 CA and so on....

A small bid for large equipment can result in several hundred subsequent bid awards and training events in bases, equipment, and seats that were never part of the advertised bid.

Thus, one should always have a "standing bid" for the BES one really wants and never have anything in the computer that is not 100% desired because you just might get it even if you didn't think the bid would affect you.

Good gawd that brings a tear to my eye thinking of the go go 90's.

Section 6 also talks about what would happen if their were insufficent bidders from the legacy group protected by the fence.

"6. Should there be insufficient bidders from one premerger pilot group for
any position in the allocated group of positions under paragraph 5 above, the filling of the position will be governed by the ISL. A pilot thereby awarded a position will, for purposes of processing future displacements under the collective bargaining agreement, be considered as junior to all pilots from the premerger pilot group entitled to the position. Notwithstanding the awarding of positions pursuant to this insufficient bidders provision, the restrictions set out in paragraph 5 above shall continue to apply during the terms specified in paragraph 5 above."

So, if there is an unfilled bid that is fenced off, that bid then becomes open to anyone on the ISL (regardless of heritage). So pretty unlikely an off the street guy or gal would see one of those before the 25th 787 arrives.

Ok, I have it on good authority that ALPA National is holding back 5% of the vacancies until they resolve the current law suits regarding retro pay (signing bonus for the TK types)

Here is one for Ual guy furloughed now on cal property now recalled. This should mean we are not fenced on Any aircraft! We have both Ual and Cal time :-):):D

When I was hired we all got to spend a week in Chicago for kool aid and indoctrination. At that time the head guru of scheduling told us that for EACH 747-400 Captain bid, the company planned on 16 additional moves (all training events) as hundreds of pilots below this Captain had the opportunity to change seats. Bear in mind that at the time we had two different types of 747s along with the DC10, 777, 767, 737NG (300-500 glass CAT 3), 737-200, 727, and Airbus.

IOW, senior rope start F/Os could now have a shot at the right seat of the 400, triple seven guys could now bid the whale, 67 guys the 777, etc etc etc all the way down the line to the 727 Flight Engineers.

Why? Because each seat represented a pay scale HIGHER than the one vacated. Everybody got a raise. Some guys LIKE to chase money and are eager to position themselves to make more of it. Sound familiar? More money caused more bids and more pilot jobs.

Now? A two engine 400,000 pound 67 pays the same as a 4 engine 800,000 pound 747. Decision 83 was tossed in the dumpster. WHY did we give this up? After all, its highly concessionary and pilot negative. I wonder? Anyone? Bueller? Baron?

What a steaming load of effluent. Pay banding, the gift that keeps on taking.

James;
I am not sure what the best system is. When I was younger I liked the international flying. Now my dream job is one day trips.

I think I would rather get paid by seat and longevity than aircraft weight. Let the young guys fly all night to party in RIO if they want. The last thing we need is a cockpit full of 64 year olds doing an 8 day asia trip.

I am not sure which system is best. I don't see the argument that it is pilot negative, other than fewer instructors and fewer pilots in training chasing an 8 dollars an hour raise.

You remember 747 FO in HNL going unfilled in 1997? Man those were fun times. I think the combination of both pilot groups plus the retirements could make the next few years very interesting especially if we announce an order for 100 seat jets.

I'm not moving seats anytime soon, but it will be fun to see what happens.

I thought I remember UAL ordering some CS300's? Not many, 30 or so?

I'm not sure which will be more interesting, watching what happens or how it happens. Kind of like irregular ops in the middle of an id. Just sit back and watch Nero play away.

Pre-merger UAL said they were evaluating the C-series. There is currently no announced order.

This. October will begin the fleshing.

Pay banding, while not perfect, allows a Captain or FO who loves European flying to make the top pay without having to leave his/her senior position on the 76 and chase the 777. While I like Asia and 15+ hour flights, a lot of folks don't. This opens up the 777 (and in your case, the 747) to people who really want to be on the airplane and not just those chasing the $.

So screw everybody else so a couple 767-400 Capts and FO's can have a high paying short TAFB schedule. Why not just pay the guppies that much and the 747 the least.

Far from perfect is more like it. Although it "might" prevent folks from chasing equipment for $, same pay for vastly different sizes of aircraft is the wrong way to go. Pilot production used to be tied with equipment flown, heavier and faster meant more money. Pay banding is the first step to same pay for all depending on seat. Longevity pay doesnt make up for it, we will all enjoy a new low average of pay. Seniority has start to become a dirty word in the industry, but if the majority in an airline want to go this route, go for it. You certainly will be unable to switch back once done, though, so be careful of what you agree to.

Something has to give. The generous company will not raise the lower tiered aircraft up to 400 or 777 rates. The 400 and 777 will in essence be subsidizing higher rates for smaller aircraft by forgoing a pay raise or, taking a cut.

Another night at the Holiday Inn Express, so I looked at the 320 current levels versus departures: Same disclaimer

A320
base---------Capt----% of Capts---Dep/Month--% of Deps-----under/over staff
JFK/EWR-----46------3.1%---------1439---------10.8%---------112 under
IAH-----------48------3.3%---------1989---------14.9%---------171 under
CLE-----------0--------0.0%---------251----------1.9%-----------28 under
ORD----------230-----15.6%--------2284---------17.1%----------21 under
DEN----------237-----16.1%--------1209---------9.0%-----------104 over
SFO----------116-----7.9%---------1560---------11.7%----------56 under
LAX----------109-----7.4%----------715-----------5.4%----------30 over
IAD----------159-----10.8%--------1200----------9.0%----------27 over
total----------945-------------------10647

So, it looks like IAH and EWR/JFK are in for some Airbus bids.

Overall, the biggest openings look to be in SFO, since it looks like they need 320 bids and 737 bids. Understaffed on both sides of the operation!!! So, given that A320 F/O bids have historically gone unfilled there and more recently the 737 F/O bids have gone unfilled there, tell your friends that are looking to get hired, they better start learning how to cheer for the Niners!!

The other problem with pay banding is the decreased training cycles, which means fewer pilots.

Make sure you do the math on this REALLY carefully. You might like the idea of pay banding, but it could delay your upgrade several years or drop you into the next lowest "band" because of the increased efficiency.

Nu

So when the 747's are retired as fast as Jeff can get them off the property, you guys want to make less flying it's replacement. Is that what you are saying?

Pay banding is for the "me, I want it all and I want now" generation who have no idea of the history of ALPA and what our predecessors fought for.

I will not argue the fact that it may increase the number of training cycles but your math on the number of pilot simply isn't supported by the data. If you compare the published data on pilots per aircraft for an airline like DAL that does not have pay banding to CAL that does, you find it is much more dependent on the type of flying being done. CAL had more pilots per aircraft than DAL. United roughly the same.

Please explain? I am not arguing I am just trying to figure out what you mean by it? I assume you mean I have been here longer so my 747 needs to be paid higher than your 777 simply because it weighs more. I would think it would benefit ALPA and its member more to have the 777, A350, 787 and 747 all making wide body pay so that if the company suddenly parks a fleet of 747's (which it will as soon as it can), the top group doesnt suddenly all take a pay cut. I just fail to see the logic in paying a 747 lets say $8 more than a 777 now so you can take an $8 paycut when it's replaced.

Ahem. Missing something?

Oh yeah, forget about Guam. Congressman Hank Johnson says it could tip over. You're on borrowed time my friend.

Sorry , no offense intended to any of the GUM folks. I just didn't include it because I figured that there wasn't any GUM flying in play when it came to shifting around flying at the Mainland domiciles. Hopefully GUM will grow massively on its own, but I don't think that will have a dramtic affect on the size of the other domiciles.

However, the desire to balance the staffing within the Mainland (to optimize schedules and minimize hotels) may result in the loss of positions at some domiciles over the coming months/years and the gain at others.

Based on what the current staffing shows it looks like that would be:

a loss of 737 positions at IAH and EWR and a gain of 320positions
a gain of 737 positoins at ORD
a gain of 737 positions at DEN and a loss of 320 positions
a gain of both 737 and 320 positions at SFO
a small gain of 737 positions at LAX and a small loss of 320 positions
a potential need of a 737 base in DCA/IAD
a potential (albeit small one) for an A320 base in CLE, but also the potential for loss of some 737 positions

Again, hopefully GUM will grow tremendously on its own and that will be a benefit to us all.

We have a base in Guam? :eek:

:D

This is something I never understood. The UAL guys say the 757 should be paid more than the 737. The company already told you they are replacing the 757 with the 737, so you would like to give yourself a pay cut.

I just don't get it.