Scope Choke in Action
 

First Embraer 175 routes from ORD to DCA and BOS

Posted February 17, 2014

We announced Monday that we will launch service with the Embraer 175 (E175) aircraft on flights between ORD and DCA (Reagan Washington National) beginning May 17 and between ORD and BOS (Boston) beginning May 19. The E175 allows us to provide a better product in these markets when the level of demand is best suited to regional aircraft.

Blatant A320 routes. I love how in one of the daily emails last week they announced "exciting new routes" and every single one of them was on an RJ. I just keep telling myself eventually there is supposed to be less of them. I hope these guys continue to fight for better compensation.

The only way we will continue to staff over the next 25 years is if we bring these big RJs on property(with mainline wages) and hire young guys directly.

Probably true, unless they eventually get us down to 1 or even no pilots. Sure near future is unlikely but 25 years its very possible. Think how far we,ve come in the last 25-30 years. In the meantime, i just hope they maintain the good screening process we have now. I would never want to end up in a situation like asia and china are in where you dont really need to show any sort of skill to fly an A330.

You're assuming we have pilots now that show skill at flying....big assumption. Especially for me!

And our customers are overjoyed at the changes. Here is an example of one if the comments on the United Facebook
Page...

What market research told you that regional jet service is what your customers want? Not a fan of regional jets piloted by less experienced / low paid pilots. I fly other airlines to avoid your regional jet service.

And Jeff Says, "our numbers don't show a problem."

Because people aren't numbers I guess.

C'mon…you're not THAT bad….

^^^^^^^ Bazinga!!!!

The E-175 isn't an RJ, but scope allows a carrier with RJs to fly it for mainline. Some passengers prefer them to a 737, no middle seat and many of the same amenities. Assuming that most passengers understand the intricacies of the mainline/regional relationship is probably false.

Ticket price, past experience with an airline, ticket price, reliability and ticket prices are the factors I believe... Although two of them may not be actual factors to the average consumer

I'm getting lazy in my old age otherwise I'd look it up myself. The question as to whether or not Scope Choke is working centers on the number of seats and/or the Max Gross Weight of the planes being used. So who can answer with links as proof as to what the seating arrangements and Max Gross Weight is for the new EMB-175s being pressed into service. If they have more than 70 seats and/or weigh more than the defined 76 Max Gross Weight defined weight then they are counting towards the Scope Choke Clause. If they have 70 seats or less and/or weigh less than the defined weight then Scope Choke is not working.

It's not about routes . . . it's about reducing the number of planes in service. If the company flies planes with more than 70 seats they incur major "Scope Choke".

The big EMB seats are wider than either a bus or crap7. The aisle is wider. The distance between your outboard shoulder and the window is wider. And of course, there is no center seat.

From the PAX standpoint, its a great plane. We must fly the next gen. Must.

I'd rather fly RJs on a legacy seniority list, than collect useless seniority at the regionals and seniority choke all over again....

the times are a changin'.... get engaged... turn off your @#&$ TV.

Joe,

Yes and no...

In order to catch up to Delta's advantage in having 76 seaters flying already, the first batch of 76 seaters for UAL do nothing to choke. They are allowed a max of 130 76-seaters right off the bat. (Inclusive of the q400 which numbers 28) and then up to 153 after January 1. 2016. If the company wants to increase past that number of 76-seaters, they have to order a new small narrow body for mainline.

Per the Jan 2014 fleet plan, there are 153 70-seaters flying. That leaves 102 spots for 76-seaters. Minus the 28 q400's leaves 74 76-seaters available to be flown. 27 of those planes will be flying by the end of this year.

The 255 is a hard cap, if the company wants to increase the 76-seaters they will have to reduce the amount of 70-seaters. Unless they add a new small narrow body to mainline (Defined as the CS100, Emb190/195) then:

The ratio between express flying block hours and single aisle block hours can be up 120% for the first 153 76-seaters.

So no choke yet or anytime soon sad to say. IMO we won't see anything, if ever, till the next contract. With the plan to keep 75%+ of the Airbus Fleet until 2025 now, and with the amount of money earmarked for new 737/787/a350 for the next decade, not sure where the money is to order a new small narrow body.

G

I would say that for the foreseeable future, the economics of the smaller RJ's will dictate a faster retirement than the contract--coupled with no one wanting to work for starvation wages.

Fewer pilots, fewer planes must lead to larger capacity planes--that is unless we take back more RJ flying than planned, and I don't see that soon either.

I agree. Wait to the company comes to us to tell us they want relief. Bigger RJs for less of them. I don't care how much gold they offer....put the EMB 190's at mainline......

Agreed. Mainline flying all the way.

G, Remeber this . . .
and rember this quote from Ken the ALPA Scope-SME which I posted in 12/2012 that you didn't think was likely anytime before 2017.



Now here is a quote from Skywest's quarterly report:

same goes for Republic.


The 70/76 fleet will end 2014 like this:

Q400 28
EMB-700 38
CRJ-700 115
EMB-175 32

Tot 213


Outstanding orders for EMB-175 to be used by UAX not yet delivered but for delivery in 2015 and 2016:

Republic 50
Skywest 40


So we have at least 303 70/76 seaters which is going to force retirement of CRJ-700 or Q400 or both to keep the fleet limited to 255 in the meantime more than 100 CRJs are being retired in the next 2 years so . . . drum roll please . . .


By the end of 2016 the UAX fleet will see a minimum net reduction of 50 hulls and that is just on the retirements that have already been announced. Any additional retirements of 50 seaters lowers the numbers.


Plus, UAL has announced several routes returning to mainline from UAX.


Plus, from the "other forum" it appears certain that we are keeping our 767 fleet for the near future as well as additional 757s. The 757s will run Hawaii and free up 73s to take on more UAX routes.




So . . . in summary.


UAX fleet reducing from 550ish airframes to less than 450 by end of 2016.

UAX fleet capped at 255 airframes while 50 seaters all but disappear by 2020.

UAL taking back mainline flying from UAX already being announced.




I'm not sure how folks want to measure their lives whether thy are Glass Half Empty folks or Glass Half Full folks, but to me this is a huge win. It is taking time, but without a question UAX is shrinking with or without a new narrow body order.




Oh and Coach67 . . . I'm not feeling any apology is forthcoming soon. . .

Joe,

Besides attempting to forgive scabs, you certainly are willing to buy into the spin. Simple fact is RJ economics are pushing the lawn darts towards the dumpster. The Q's are being rid of, because they are less reliable then your member of Congress. Btw they are being replaced with far more capable 76 seat jets (winner!:rolleyes:) Those are the facts, not perspective. These were not the pilot group's problems, thus gloating about the pathetic 'scope choke' after we unzipped our fly on the large RJ makes you look foolish.

Talk about spin. Explain to me how going from 557 planes to 255 planes in the UAX fleet over a 6 year period is a loss even if the seats go from 50 to 76 which is not wholly accurate because the fleet already had 100+ 70 seaters.

Turns out the ALPA SMEs were not the idiots some claimed they were, and you my friend are definitely a Glass Half Empty kind of guy. Did you complain about getting an iPad too because they didn't teach you how to use it?


Oh and for the record I didn't buy into the spin. This spin I made all by myself. The UAX fleet is rapidly reducing and the 76 seaters are severely limited unless we order a NB. That is the definition of SCOPE CHOKE, and yes you're right the 50 seaters are going of their own evolutionary demise, but that was part of the ALPA position from the start. Go back and read the quote from the SME. That's exactly what he said to expect and exactly what everyone here was denying in 2012. Flying is returning to mainline and that is good news. Why can't you and the other APCers ever once be happy about something in life. I can't imagine a sadder group of Eeyores anywhere in the world.

I would be gum drops and lollipops if this round of contracts wouldn't have ONCE AGAIN conceded in airframe size at regionals. Have you hugged a scab lately? Btw please show me the actual proven growth in the mainline fleet count.

Uhmm actually I did. One of our low life scum sucking scabs as you like to refer to them just found out she has cancer so I gave her a hug.

You probably would rather I tell her to have a nice time in hell. I know we can be forgiven for most anything in life but crossing a picket line deserves a lifetime sentence of whatever . . . no better yet they deserve to die.

A life full of hate and lacking in empathy can't be good. Not that I'm saying you are ISIS but I bet every member of ISIS has enormous hate and look what that leads to.

Oh and conceding airframes . . . contracts are a chess game. So you would have gone to the mat for the issue of scope, great. You would have stood up to the company and said "NO 76 SEATERS I DRAW THE LINE HERE." and the company would have said "Alright that costs x dollars; how are you going to pay for that?" And YOU would have traded a tighter scope for . . .

No, no . . . I know they would have given in to the strike which we would have had x number of years after the negotiations were brought to a conclusion and we were released . . .

Give me a break. What was the alternative strategy? Given the tripartite nature of our negotiations lets give ALPA a little credit for not totally screwing the pooch. UAL got the SLI and a pay raise and CAL got work rule improvements appreciated by some and dismissed by others. It ain't perfect, but it wasn't a disaster and I'd love to see people actually post a comprehensive alternative that had some chance of succeeding in a reasonable amount of time.

Oy vey! I hope you don't preach like that going over the pond. Sounds worse then Walter's eulogy at Donny's ash spreading. Btw had a family friend that lost his daughter to leukemia during the strike. No scab ever offered him a hug or even to remove the knife from his back.

Wow dude. I feel for you unbelievably. You are just like Mr. Swindells. You are filled with so much vitriol it makes me shiver. I'm sorry and I promise this is my last reply to you ever. Not that you care.



P.S. I'm dying here . . . I actually made the iPad reference without knowing you started a whole thread to complain about the training. . . to precious . . . sorry . . . I hope you'll come up to me someday and tell me how much of an a . hole I am 'cuz I'd love to meet you in person. You must be a doozy.

Vaya Con Dios Mr Peck. Have fun on future layovers with the Jack B's of the base.

[QUOTE=Sunvox;1730036]Talk about spin. Explain to me how going from 557 planes to 255 planes in the UAX fleet over a 6 year period is a loss even if the seats go from 50 to 76 which is not wholly accurate because the fleet already had 100+ 70 seaters.

Just one correction to your fleet facts. The express fleet is not shrinking to 255 aircraft. Our scope currently restricts the 70/76 seat fleet to a total of 255 aircraft. UAL can have an unlimited number of 50 seaters as long as they stay under the 120% block hour restriction. At the end of 2014 the express fleet will still have 557 airplanes.
That is a net loss of 15 airframes for the year. The 50 seaters may be on the way out but the fleet is not being scoped down to 255 airframes.

I would like to bring in Exhibit A sir: (Keep in mind Skywest owns nearly all the UAX 50 seaters.)

plus Republic announced they are removing the 28 Q400s between Jan. 2015 and Sept. 2016.



Yes you are correct the Scope clause does not restrict 50 seaters, and I agree going from 572 planes at the end of 2013 to 557 at the end of 2014 may not seem like a lot but no one said this would happen overnight. It took a decade and a half to build the UAX fleet to nearly 600 strong. It may take up to a decade for all the 50 seaters to run their leases out, but that was part of ALPA's Scope plan. The exact words ALPA used were "the 50 seat RJ fleet is dying". It may be happening slowly but it is happening.


With no further changes in Scope then ultimately all the 50 seaters will disappear and the UAX fleet would be restricted to 255 airframes plus turboprops. The real question is what will happen in the next round of negotiations. Delta is scheduled to renegotiate their contract first so let's hope they keep the trend going in the right direction.

[QUOTE=AV82SKI;1730219]You are dead on. We just allowed the Company to increase the ASM's on RJ's . Those constantly trying to defend this sCOPE language fail to realize we permitted the Company to significantly increase the number of passengers flown by RJ's. Three 50 seaters parked is being hearlded by the sCOPE defenders as a win ... while they are replaced by two 76 seaters. A one for one exchange is a loss that we permitted.

[QUOTE=Coach67;1730831]I was screaming all this during the roadshows.......nobody would listen....just give me mo' money.....and sli......shiny new jets!

WE NEVER LEARN!

As a former Regional Pilot, I implore our collective pilot groups to take back scope!!! I firmly believe scope is the primary issue for our contract negotiations. Scope is our jobs!!! We have no one to blame other than ourselves for this mess. Management knows and understands that pilots are greedy and concerned about getting "theirs". We need to understand that and use that to our advantage. We at the Legacy/Major level have the power to change things. We just have to not be selfish and pay it forward for the future of our profession.

Does it delineate anywhere in the SKW report that these 50 seaters are coming out of the UAX fleet OR out of DELTA CONNECTIO, or perhaps a mix?
Given Delta's pace of getting rid of the 50 seaters, I would be VERY hestitant to assume that they are all UAX parkings.

[QUOTE=Coach67;1730831]Can you please post the source where you got this info from. I will not quote it as fact but, I believe the ASM's are actually going down on the Express carriers according to the last companies last quarter report? :confused:

Yes that is true...ASM's are reducing! It is scope choke...loosing 2 50-seaters for ever 70-76. The latest announcement is an airframe for airframe replacement (70 seat for 76 seat), but RJ ASM is reducing overall

If only UAX fleet was going to be 255 after six years.

It is easy to understand how pilots forget what the actual 'Scope Choke' was due to the absurd complexity of the language. The 'Scope Choke' was supposedly going to happen because United would have to order mainline 100 seat SJs to compete with DAL. Even if United announces an order for such aircraft, deliveries won't come until well after DAL's new contract happens. Historically, DALPA has sold SJ scope for contractual improvements. Hopefully, that trend will end, but if it doesn't the UAL MEC will likely follow suit with another DAL - 1 year contract like last time.

The UAX carriers' inability to find pilots who will work for minimum wage compensation is the only factor choking regional growth. It certainly has nothing to do with the UPA scope clause.

ASMs went down slightly in Q2 and are projected to flatten in Q3 and it has NOTHING to do with the UPA scope clause nor does it require UAX to park '2 50-seaters for ever 70-76. That doesn't start until after the 255th UAX 70/76 seaters and the mainline 100 seaters start entering the fleet. UAX isn't even bumping up against the only applicable UPA limit at this point which is the 120% hour restriction. The limiting factor currently is the number of pilots UAX carriers can find who are willing to work for minimum wage. UAX has less than 20 E-175s so far. As more of those come on line UAX ASMs will likely increase due to more seats, higher speeds and higher utilization rates.

Scope Choke in Action
 

According to their earnings call, Skywest Inc will lose 156 airplanes by YE 2015.

This year's remaining year TOTAL 56:
4-skywest, 17-ASA, 35 XJT

Next year TOTAL 100:
21-skywest , 20-ASA, 59-XJT

All of the XJT aircraft are UAX and at least a dozen or so from ASA are UAX aircraft with the balance being DelCon. I don't know about Skywest.



Said there will still be 155-160 Legacy XJT aircraft on property end of 2015




As a current regional pilot, I implore all mainline pilots to take back both ends of scope. That's the scope choke to worry about!

Not for nuthin' but Southwest is running national TV ads that when you buy a seat on them you fly on a mainline plane.

You are right it won't be 255 in 6 years that is overstating the case, however, it does not change the fact that the 50 seat planes are ALL slated to go the way of the Dodo bird by 2025, AND it is highly likely they will be put to rest before that SO . . .

WITH NO OTHER CHANGES

Scope CHOKES (i.e. limits) the number of jet airframes to 255. Long before the trouble finding qualified pilots started the economics of 50 seaters had already proven their demise and that was part of ALPAs argument. I am not saying the job is over and we should all breath a sigh of relief. All I am saying is that the "doomsday" sayers who argued that the company was going to keep the 50 seat fleet and grow the new UAX to 700 planes strong were simply wrong and now the trend is going in the opposite direction and it is directly the result of ALPA limiting the future UAX fleet to 255. What happens now will determine whether we can take back all our flying but at least we have momentum in the right direction and for once its ok to be a little bit optimistic.