You had me until .org. Then I threw up in my mouth! :eek:

You will learn.

Nothere/Carolsdanger/Staller etc

Instead of changing your avatar every few months, could you just change........well..............you????

Nowhere, staller and other names of old.

Not a company stooge or management. Also probably not good to say I've been exposed as anything when you have been banned how many times now for your hateful rhetoric?

When I mention new hires I was speaking explicitly to all the ones that I had dealt with in new hire classes and in IAH for the last three years. Not CAL or UAL but all United. We have a great group of new pilots and great UAL and CAL pilots too. The issue I have is that you always talk about the CAL pilot group in broad terms and it's always how bad we are and how quick we will cross a picket line and yada yada. What you say is not true almost all of the time.

I could care less about this topic or the next two decisions the arbs make. Does it affect me? Probably but I can't control their decisons and I will accept the outcome (like many have done on here).

So, my true colors are only to see all the childish arguing about who is better, negative stereotyping and move forward to better all of us.

Young Grasshopper would be reminded not to do management's bidding with veiled threats and suppositions.

Lay off it ST. Though I don't know flybynuts personally, his posts have always been helpful and professional (unlike many of your own posts...and some of mine ;)

Just calling it like I see it.

That didn't come across as a threat to me, but I've been accused of being slow on the uptake.

No more decisions. LUAL dropped the other two cases after the ruling, which was IMO the right thing to do. From one of my favorite movies:

"Alright I'm cooler than you. Now fix your little problems and let's LIGHT THIS CANDLE"

Special,

I never meant to come across that way and I apologize since you took it that way. We have several fronts to worry about job loss right now with the company and NAI and etc... All I was intending was to quickly dispel a rumor. What you quoted from me was no threat or mgmt subversion. Most of my info I post just comes asking questions. I was me proving that one's action doesn't make it a "many" situation and yes, if you are caught lying or stealing you can get in some real trouble just as we would if we blatantly disregard safety. I almost expanded that comment to even mention that we have guys losing their cool and starting to bring the arguments to the cockpit and/or hotel lobby. Ask our pro stans guys about this. I hate to see this happen to good people over topics that we can't even control.

GB,
Love the quote and movie. Even better is I'll hold your beer while you light it!

MoveOn.org is nothing new. Read your history. Start with Trotsky and Marx, go forward to Mao, and then YOU will learn of the inevitable failure of progressivism in all its ugly forms. It can be an alluring siren call for the lazy and entitled, but it will always fail.

Flyby,

Thanks and hopefully we will meet one day. Once the veneer is removed, you'd be surprised how much we have in common.

Lame Duck.

To the guys that try to dispel rumors to justify their actions and point fingers to scare or intimidate it will always cast suspicions in their own direction. The ones that genuinely care about what they're doing for others have a tendency NOT to tot-their-own-horn, while the opposite is true for the do-gooders.

With the recent DRC decision, a comment like " I think with the 2/3 CAL list and new hires we are working towards a group that is strong and picks their battles well to win the war." it implies that management and management wannabes along with their selected group have somehow won a war against ALPA and those they represent. Yes, management stooges amongst us.

For the sake of unity, the United MEC has specifically stated the remedy to remove those or take away from those that gained which they weren't entitled to was not an acceptable remedy. This has driven decisions by the arbitrator but was necessary for ALPA to protect rights to the process in the future.

If the Pierce following or management wannabes amongst us want to pound-chest and claim victory, you'd be wrong and exposed.

The UAL side didn't really lose anything.

Their remedy was to have a Captain bid out for the UAL side. Anyone who's been paying attention knows that all the recent Captain bids are going to LUAL guys.

So….Captain bids will continue to come out and the awards will go to LUAL anyway.

We won't see anyone hired in 2005 get a Captain bid again for a LONG time.

Those junior guys from CAL who got the bids out of seniority (bidding into LUAL bases when we were forbidden to bid those seats) should be happy that they're making the big bucks and got away with something.

Everybody wins!

Just for clarification, the Capt bids are going out to the "senior Lual" because they are SENIOR! The SENIOR Lcal guys are not bidding those positions since they are Lual bases! Thats why you saw such JUNIOR Lcal guys hold Capt in those bases in the first place! :eek: Most senior guys didn't want to go to those bases unless they lived close. I'm glad to see the Lual get movement as it should be!!

Yet they are dumbfounded when they keep on getting pushed down in BES every month - totally clueless.

Uh....yes they did. How about 2 or more years of Captains pay?? Can be significant. :confused:

So are people that post on here that think most these junior guys didn't realize what was going to happen! I just think that they wanted to upgrade ASAP just as the UAL guys would have! I think when it will sink in is a couple yrs from know when they get sick of crappy schedules!! But, we had people bid over to the rt seat at first chance WAY before the Merger so I'm not sure what everyones point is? :rolleyes:

Since ISL there have been relatively few CA bids, so naturally they will be taken by LUAL pilots who can hold them and WANT them.

According to July staffing, the most junior LUAL EWR 737 CA is number 7954. Mixed right in with LCAL 05 hires. Obviously some very senior LUAL pilots did not bid those seats. So that "long time" comment is subject to debate. Nearly half of LCAL 05 hires are merged with LUAL 97 hires, who are rightfully assuming CA bids. Most LCAL 05 hires that wanted a captain bid already have it. Most others are 777/787 FO's or very senior in seat 737 FO's. Without knowing the companies staffing plans, it's pure speculation stating how long it will take for a seniority block to hold a seat.

Very good analysis.

It is actually much more significant than that in the senior bases as the junior Cal pilots holding the bids effectively act as blockers from new bids occurring. By Cal taking those bids when they did, they filled an entire seat/domicile way out of seniority. As an example, the junior 737 Cap in Denver is nearly 8500 on the list. The junior 320 Cap is about 5200. Over 3000 numbers difference. I am around 4900 and would love to be a Den Cap again (for the third time), but I doubt I'll hold it for several more years due to bids already being filled nearly 3000 numbers junior to where they will likely end up falling. The coming bump train will only exacerbate this. That said, it is what it is. The SLI is done, the disputes (short of the lawsuit) are done. Best we move on.

Scott

You will get the opportunity to bid 737 captain in the very near future. The 737 bases that were opened in L UAL hubs are all staffed artificially low. Den needs about 200 more captain, Ord about 300, Sfo 250, lax another 100. As the deliveries come, all of the increased staffing will go to these hubs.

CALFO

Sorry to bust your bubble on future bids but the Guppies are replacements for many other retiring airplanes.

Most of the upward movement is going to come because of retirements. Of course that also depends on the industry, Arab Airlines, the current Senate issues about foreign flying and more. Who knows UCH could move to just sell tickets and outsource everything in the future, just look at Quantas.

So my recommendation is as always, bid what a pilot is willing to fly and willing to live. Don't count on future changes!

I know that they're replacement planes. That doesn't change the fact that the 737 bases will grow in those bases. In the span of two years, over 450 737 capts will retire or move to other equip, Cleveland will draw down and Houston will draw down. The net effect will be massive vacancies in the ual 737 bases.

The "junior" captains will not block anything. The company has and will continue to train 737 capt's at max capacity.

CALFO

I think you understand 737 bases are growing as others shrink. In the short term this does provide some opportunity. In the longer run the merged UAL will be smaller than the two were separate.

Also which airplanes will the 737 Capts bid to?

787 and 777. As pilots retire off of those planes, someone has to take their place. The 787 will increase its captain staffing by at least 100 in the next two years while at the same time having retirements. Lots of 777 captain retirement, which will be filled with both ual and cal pilots.

I think this analysis may be flawed. Was the 7954 pilot awarded the position in a vacancy bid or via a displacement? My guess is that it's a displacement. I think the real seniority number of pilots bidding in is at about 7000. I expect it will get closer to 8000 within a year, but right now that's what you need in order to be awarded captain on the 737.

I think you're right,and there are a lot of 76T FOs that are going to be getting bumps this fall, and virtually all of them can hold guppy Captain in their base.

I think these displacements are going to keep the open vacancy bids down slightly for guppy Captain, making it artificially more senior on vacancy bids. That's what's happening already, and its going to increase.

I'd be surprised in a year from now if 8,000 isn't about what it takes to hold a left seat somewhere.

The combined airline now has about 5,000 Captain positions and 7,000 FO positions (obviously because of widebody airplanes). Obviously, if everyone bid as high as they could, no one below 5,000 would be a Captain.

Good analysis CALFO. I agree.

And 747s. Those guys are retiring as well. We aren't parking them until beginning in 2022 and that's a decent sized airplane fleet, (it was larger than the pre-merger CAL 777 fleet.)

I think the 787 is going to be the big growth fleet, since we have 65 total orders and only about 16 on the property now.

If we don't park any widebodies early, the entire 747, 777, 787, A-350 fleet will be about 200 airplanes by 2020. I'm sure some older 777s will get parked though.

Anything can happen.

Didn't consider the displacement possibility. I think you are right. The most junior LUAL 737 CA I could find via vac bid was around 6180 The most junior LUAL A320 CA is 6366. The most junior LUAL Ca system wide at ISL was 6593.

Be careful NavyCal, my experience here at LUAL for the last some odd 28 years has been our pilot group(former LUAL), as a whole, has been decidedly left of Karl Marx. A conservative voice in the crowd was always shouted down with inappropriate epitaphs and threats of physical violence. I speak from personal experience. After 8 years or so on the old Compuserve/ALPA forum, I left in disgust. At least on this board, liberal thugs don't gang up on a conservative voice.
With regard to Moveon.org, lets not forget that one of the wealthiest Left-wing anti-american 1 percenters, George Soros, has bank-rolled their operation.

The most junior LUAL Captain on the merger date was an Airbus Captain in IAD who ended up over 7,000 on the ISL and wasn't sitting in that seat because he had been displaced post merger. There were a few including Airbus Captains in LAX and SFO, either close to 7,000 or over it.

I was one of them out of LAX. I don't remember what my seniority number was back then though.

I'll bet a months pay there are either none, or less than 50 737 or A320 Capt vacancies in the next year., We are parking over 70 75's in the next year, and taking only 24 uberGuppies to replace them. That, and from 2010 to 2013 about 700 pilot's worth of block hours were transferred from U side to the C side.

In the next year there will be 700-1200 lUAL pilots displaced off the 76T fleet. Maybe a bit more. Because of the really junior lCal captains in all the bases, it will allow the vast majority (over 80%) of even the FO's in those bases to displace to the left seat if they want it.

24 Guppies in the next year requires 130-140 Captains. Not the 850 as another poster wrote. Even with 100 retirements off the 73, there is no scenario where we get anywhere near that number.

Some of those pilots will displace to wide bodies, which should reduce even the vacancies on those fleets, minus Sparky because of the fence.

I think everyone is going to be surprised how few vacancies will be available in the next 12-18 months. Shocked might be a better term.

A conservative voice being threatened with violence by a crowd of airline pilots? That's about as believable as Rosie O'Donnell and Mullah Omar sharing a cup of tea...

Yep.............

IMPOSSIBLE! I've read right here on APC that here will be no bumps.;)

I'm guessing you've never been on the old Compuserve/ALPA forum. The moderators did nothing to stop the runaway liberal thuggery or thought police.

Same core group of iceholes who run roughshod over the membership over at UAL forums. There are about 3 or 4 primary big mouths who do the majority of it.