3rd Quarter Earnings $1.7B
10-22-2015, 03:38 AM
#1
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10-22-2015, 04:42 AM
#2
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The numbers looked pretty good to me, although it seems Wall Street is focusing on the PRASM decrease of 5.8%. It looks like the stock will open down despite good earnings.
The one thing that scares me about these numbers is just how much of that profit comes from fuel cost savings. Fuel costs for the quarter are down $1.2 Billion from last year (3.1 Billion in 2014 vs. 1.9 Billion in 2015). So the vast majority of that profit is from something United cannot control. What is UAL's plan for when fuel prices go back up to what they were last year, or even worse, oil goes back above $100/barrel.
The one thing that scares me about these numbers is just how much of that profit comes from fuel cost savings. Fuel costs for the quarter are down $1.2 Billion from last year (3.1 Billion in 2014 vs. 1.9 Billion in 2015). So the vast majority of that profit is from something United cannot control. What is UAL's plan for when fuel prices go back up to what they were last year, or even worse, oil goes back above $100/barrel.
10-22-2015, 05:30 AM
#3
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Funny how times change. If fuel ate up 1.2B more of profit and we only made $700M in a quarter, how would that compare to the past? In just about any other time in airline history, a $700M quarter would be great.
10-22-2015, 05:33 AM
#4
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3.408 Billion Profit this year so far.
Could break the 4 Billion mark (if we have a good 4th quarter..?!)
But even if we don't, should be a decent PS check next Feb. Now to start figuring out what a potential payout is for 3.4B.
Wall Street is gonna hate that. But our's won't be close to Delta's! Hearing they may get a check worth 3 months pay.. wow~
Always
Motch
PS) Oh, and just think what we would have made without our little Maintenance month issue and if we had a combined FA group..
Over 2Billion?!
Could break the 4 Billion mark (if we have a good 4th quarter..?!)
But even if we don't, should be a decent PS check next Feb. Now to start figuring out what a potential payout is for 3.4B.
Wall Street is gonna hate that. But our's won't be close to Delta's! Hearing they may get a check worth 3 months pay.. wow~
Always
Motch
PS) Oh, and just think what we would have made without our little Maintenance month issue and if we had a combined FA group..
Over 2Billion?!
Last edited by horrido27; 10-22-2015 at 05:36 AM. Reason: added a PS
10-22-2015, 06:19 AM
#5
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10-22-2015, 06:35 AM
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Does anyone see the 3rd Q profit margin in the data? Is it as easy as dividing expenses into revenue? In that case would our margin really be 19.8%? That's way above our latest estimate. I'm a moron when it comes to these kind of numbers.
In other news.... does anyone know where the "company profit sharing plan" is spelled out? Have a bet going with my FO that the 10% below 6.9% and the 20% above 6.9% isn't JUST for the pilots. It's the entire pool and we get a slice of that pie, correct?
In other news.... does anyone know where the "company profit sharing plan" is spelled out? Have a bet going with my FO that the 10% below 6.9% and the 20% above 6.9% isn't JUST for the pilots. It's the entire pool and we get a slice of that pie, correct?
10-22-2015, 06:58 AM
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Originally Posted by Arthur Vandelay
Q3 profit margin was 19.2%. I believe we've been into the 20% profit sharing category every qtr so far this year.
I'm not sure what employee groups, in addition to pilots, participate in the company profit sharing plan.
I'm not sure what employee groups, in addition to pilots, participate in the company profit sharing plan.
Surprising number, as they just revised the margin the other day up and estimated 15-17%. Surprised to see it so much higher than that.
10-22-2015, 07:51 AM
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Originally Posted by iahflyr
The numbers looked pretty good to me, although it seems Wall Street is focusing on the PRASM decrease of 5.8%. It looks like the stock will open down despite good earnings.
The one thing that scares me about these numbers is just how much of that profit comes from fuel cost savings. Fuel costs for the quarter are down $1.2 Billion from last year (3.1 Billion in 2014 vs. 1.9 Billion in 2015). So the vast majority of that profit is from something United cannot control. What is UAL's plan for when fuel prices go back up to what they were last year, or even worse, oil goes back above $100/barrel.
The one thing that scares me about these numbers is just how much of that profit comes from fuel cost savings. Fuel costs for the quarter are down $1.2 Billion from last year (3.1 Billion in 2014 vs. 1.9 Billion in 2015). So the vast majority of that profit is from something United cannot control. What is UAL's plan for when fuel prices go back up to what they were last year, or even worse, oil goes back above $100/barrel.
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