2017 Hiring forecast and interview times
 

I've seen several wags about remaining hiring in 2016 and projections for up to 600-900 next year. However, I'm wondering if anything is becoming more solid on expected #s/class, or total numbers. Additionally, what's currently going on with respect to "avail dates" vs. when folks are actually getting the call for interviews (I heard on or after avail date, but that's not substantiated). I've got a Feb '17 avail and I "assume" "IF" I'm lucky enough to get a call, it won't be until the fall of this year or later. Thoughts?

From what we are being told from our hiring officials, they are planning on hiring approximately 900-1000 per year, for the foreseeable future. This is what has been stated officially.

I've asked a few of the FO's I've flown with who were upgrading soon after we flew to let me know what they heard during Captain Indoc which is conducted at headquarters in Chicago. They get briefings from senior management and even Oscar Munoz our CEO usually visits.

Don't shoot the messenger, I'm just reporting back what I've heard. I know it's very optimistic and yes things can change in a NY second.

That being said here is what I've heard recently.

Current mainline fleet is 723, by end of next year 816 and up to 1000 in five years.

Planning on a 18,000 pilot seniority list in five years, current list just over 12,500.

Taking delivery of all 35 firm and 15 options of the A350's.

14 777-300's 4 to SFO rest to EWR.

40% of pilot group will be new hires in five years.

Most senior managers say they have never worked for a CEO like Oscar, very optimistic.

Almost hard to wrap my head around those numbers. Where will the expansion happen? I wonder what DL & AA's answer to this strategy is.

RJ flying is coming back to mainline and more direct flights to secondary Chinese destinations is where United will grow




Parking 22 744s at 2018

Receiving
65 new 737-7s
100 737 max 2018 -21
25 737-9 from now till end 2017
14 777-3 2016-17
12 more 787-9 from now to 2018
42 used Airbus 2016-18
35 A350 2018-2020


732-22 retirements = 710 plus 281 deliveries used and new the next 4-5 years IS 991 aircraft flying x 16.5 pilots per plane average

16,350 pilots per my math add vacation coverage and I guess 15 percent reserve


WE SHALL SEE either way a good growth and let's hope it stays that way

So between the growth of the seniority list over the next 5 years, retirements (BK states add 10% to those retirement numbers for medical and early retirees), United needs to hire at least 1200-1300 a year based on the expansion and retirements alone.

Are there any plans to somehow increase beyond the projected 1000 a year?

AND, by 2020, we have a bunch of 777-200's that are 25 years old, a bunch of airbus's 25-30 years old, some 757's and 763's that are over 35 years old. There are lot of mainland aircraft that can, and will, be sent to the desert in a downturn.

I do see 70 seat RJ's coming to the mainline, and that is the way forward to 18k pilots. Or, we buy somebody. I would have guessed Alaska until they paid 4B for VX.

UAL is sticking to seat mile growth of under 2% total. That doesn't get the mainline to 18k pilots in 4 years unless more of UAL flying comes to the mainline, and express shrinks.

It's probably not a coincidence that design work has already begun on expanding the physical number of sim bays in the DEN training center despite the previous plan that still had some room for growth even after moving everything up from IAH. :)

Don't worry guys, age 70 will fix the training problems for the next 5-10 years.;)

Well....that and the merger. Since the fleets are not compatible we're just gonna take the employees but not the airplanes. ;)

I've been watching how my seniority has gone compared to forecasts from the "Seniority site" for the last two years.

In the last two years, it has differed by only 4-5 guys (total), so I think the "10%" is a bit optimistic. More like 1%.

As far as training capacity goes: flew a trip recently with an old military bud who is in the upper levels of DENTK. They are trying to decide if they will add 4 bays, or 10. He said (as far as he knew) that decision hadn't been made yet. Four bays would go on the East end of the "F" building; 10 bays would go on the southeast end of "C."

We are at max capacity for training, which is limited by the number of physical simulators (hence using sims in Vegas and Miami), but also by PEOPLE...just not enough Instructors, and they can't really afford to train more....it makes you short one more guy on the line, not to mention, the guy training the Instructor is not training a guy for the line.

As far as Oscar: the fact that they unveiled the new "Polaris" product last week (which actually DOES look pretty comfortable) says that somebody at the top is not sweeping our faults under the carpet, and is actually addressing it. If they can pull it off the way it is envisioned, I think it is a pretty good lure.

Since that product is meant for the uber-longhaul and Atlantic, it says to me they are thinking about wooing the premium traveller back, and if NAI goes through, we can cater to the premium market, and let them have the leisure travellers.

The 777-300s and A-350s will have Polaris when they are delivered, and it is going to be retrofit to the 767-300s.

Interesting times.

They might as well as 14 bays if we are going to be a 18000 pilot airline. And bring back making serious money on contracting out training and simulators at TK. Why pay to use other sims when we could be cashing in having our own.

All 777 , A319/20 and 763s will be on the property till at least 2025 unless something drastic happen ( fuel crisis or 9/11.type). BTW 757s most old ones already gone but the new ones and they are good till 2025 as well.... 737s most have been build late 99s and 2000s still new


Time will tell but 950 frames by 2020 is doable




Ps and I know Probe you have been here since 95 and have seen a lot. But different times I hope
9/89 since I joined this business as well but I am more optimistic today more than ever

Aren't they only supposed to hire 325 for the rest of 2016? How many have been hired so far ?

Great info thanks! Any gouge on rough time for interviews based on availability date? I have a buddy, a new fo said guys are getting calls on or after their availability date which seemed wierd to me.

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Everybody hopes your right, including me. Just being the devils advocate.

I do think we will have 18k pilots. I just think 6000 of them will be flying smaller airframes than we currently have at the mainline. And UCH will have much smaller numbers of 37-50 seaters.

Does anyone know when the next job fair is? Thanks.

A picture speaks a thousand words:

https://www.airlinepilothiring.net/I...etirements.jpg

They just updated the hiring for the year. Looks like they added on another August class. Also just because there aren't classes every week doesn't mean the hiring isn't significant. In December there were only 2 classes, but it was about 100 total pilots.

June 21, 2016
July 19, 2016
August 2, 2016
August 23, 2016
September 20, 2016
September 27, 2016
October 11, 2016
October 18, 2016
November 8, 2016
November 15, 2016
December 6, 2016
December 13, 2016

What is the time line from invite to interview and interview to class date? Thanks

That's been changing lately. When I interviewed in March it took about 2 months for class to start but they have backed up a bit. Maybe 3-5 months now. But it keeps changing so who knows. :)

How soon from email to interview?

Any one get Dulles out of training or within 6-8 months from the start at least?

Yup.

For those in the process, don't be surprised to see it to change once the seasonal reduced summer training schedule is over. It's all about timing.

Just under a month.

According to that chart, no one retires in 2048 or later? That can't be right. Surely there have to be pilots at United in their 20s and under age 32.


Curious, how many pilots are at United right now that are under age 32? (Born 1984 or higher)?

I think it's that when that graphic was generated (which I believe was a few years ago and before the recent hiring boom), the youngest pilot on either of the then unintegrated lists retired in 2048. I'm sure a more recent chart would show many more retirements on the back end of the graph.

Yeah, that's probably it. Curious to see updated numbers and how many current United pilots are younger than 32 (born 1984+).

I would guess 10 percent out of the new hires starting February 2013 when the doors opened

1812 total so 180 under 30 is fair assumption


Average age of the new hires I say is around 38 , just a quick guess

Too many retired military and 15 year RJ drivers

I'm 33, hired last spring (2015), and will retire #108, for a datapoint.

I'm 30, hired last fall. There are less than 50 guys senior and younger than me. I'd venture to bet there are less than 100 guys 30 and younger.

I was 33 when I was hired at UAL in 2007. I was to retire at #86.

Things can and will change.

Of course. Should have added the caveat. I'm well aware.

I was 29 when I was hired in 1997. I was supposed to be number 80ish when I retired. After the ISL I am slated to be in the high 500's at retirement. Stuff happens.

Hired last spring at 32 and I don't really focus on what number I might retire at. I'm rather focusing on enjoying the good times now, prepping for the downturns, saving as much as practical and hoping to retire well before 65.

Hired last June at age 27 retiring number 10 if nothing changes.. Pretty sure there were 3 hired at age 24.

Well done. I'm a little curious how somebody gets hired at 24. Did they cure cancer? Was their dad the head of the hiring committee? It's improbable they had competitive time.

they had a brown nose and no other life outside of ERAU and associated clubs.