Watch out, UPS.. Amazon delivering half...
 

Nothing new per se but Amazon Prime’s rate of growth is stunning.. :eek:

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Watch out, UPS. Morgan Stanley estimates Amazon is already delivering half of its packages

PUBLISHED THU, DEC 12 201911:24 AM
Michael Sheetz

Amazon Logistics is the e-commerce giant’s in-house logistics operation.
“Our AlphaWise analysis shows that Amazon Logistics already delivers ~50% of Amazon US volumes, focused on urban areas,” Morgan Stanley said.
The firm estimates Amazon Logistics will reach a volume of 6.5 billion packages per year by 2022, far exceeding its estimate for UPS at 5 billion packages per year and FedEx at 3.4 billion packages per year.

Amazon is already delivering about half of its own packages in the U.S., according to a Morgan Stanley estimate on Thursday, and will soon pass both United Parcel Service and FedEx in total volume.

Amazon Logistics is the e-commerce giant’s in-house logistics operation. Morgan Stanley said Amazon Logistics “more than doubled its share” of U.S. package volumes from about 20% a year ago and is now shipping at a rate of 2.5 billion per year. For comparison, Morgan Stanley estimates UPS and FedEx have U.S. shipping volumes of 4.7 billion and 3 billion packages per year, respectively.”

“We see more of this going forward as our new bottom-up US package model assumes Amazon Logistics US packages grow at a 68% [compound annual growth rate from 2018 to 2022],” Morgan Stanley said.

That would put Amazon Logistics at 6.5 billion packages per year by 2022, according to the firm, far exceeding its estimate for UPS at 5 billion packages per year and FedEx at 3.4 billion packages per year.

“To us, Amazon Logistics is already-large scale and with a fleet ~1/5 the size of competitors, it speaks to its ability to use density and technology to drive efficiency,” Morgan Stanley said.

20% upside?

The firm says Amazon Logistics is more focused than its competitors on densely populated areas. According to Morgan Stanley’s estimate, about 61% of Amazon Logistics’ package volumes are from suburban areas, 28% are from urban areas, and just 11% are from rural areas. That makes Amazon Logistics’ rural focus about half of its competitors, as the rest of the industry typically derives 20% of package volume from rural areas, the firm said.

Morgan Stanley has an overweight rating on Amazon shares, with a $2,100 price target that is nearly 20% above the stock’s current level.

The firm also lowered its price target on both UPS shares to $78 from $85 — about 33% below its current price — and FedEx shares to $111 from $120 — which would be a drop of about 32% from current levels. Morgan Stanley has an underweight rating on UPS and an equal-weight rating on FedEx.

— CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.


https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/12/anal...ups-fedex.html

The first half is the ez half...will be interesting to watch.

Watch out, UPS.. Amazon delivering half...
 

"The sky is falling, the sky is falling!"

For the last 15 years that I've been paying attention, Morgan Stanley's notes have been more wrong than right, seemingly publicized to cause near-term stock price movement more than anything else. Sensationally written clickbait headlines serve the same purpose.

Notice how the story didn't mention how Amazon volume at UPS has spiked in 2019, or how Amazon volume has sharply declined for USPS.

Never said that. ...and I don’t believe the article implies it either.

AMZN has been great for my stock portfolio so far. However I still think the rate of Amazon PRIME’s growth has been phenomenal.

After all, it wasn’t that long ago people on this very forum didn’t believe Amazon would ever get into the shipping side of business. Well they did. ..with a vengeance.

So this is more about FDX versus UPS approach to Amazon. I still think FDX has more of a long term view whereas UPS continuous doing business with Amazon knowing that in the long term it’ll be a parasitical or harmful (to UPS) relationship. Once again, time will tell.

No, you didn't.

The comment wasn't toward you, but rather the Wall Street types that continue to further their prognostications, made more from emotion than verifiable fact, in public.

Financial websites were posting articles by analysts just two years ago how FDX was kicking our arse and Amazon was going to put us out of business...but where are we today? Showing growth and financial performance WAY better than anybody thought we would.

Yes, Amazon has quickly grown their logistics business carrying a substantial amount of their own volume by focusing on high population density areas...but even as Prime Air has formed and navy blue Sprinter vans have flooded suburbia, our Amazon volume has only increased. Furthermore, our B2C volume has increased no less than 6% each of the last two years, more than 3x what Morgan Stanley projects we'll see in 2020 and 2021.

Yet, the headline reads "Watch out, UPS"...:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

True but I think many analysts believe our relationship with Prime will hurt us in the long term. That we’re helping our future competition and that our short-term gains won’t offset the long term damages to our business. In 5-10 years we’ll know.
So in the meantime I’m investing in both.

My take on this is that e-commerce has grown to the point that the US domestic market can support three healthy logistics companies. UPS, FEDEX, and Amazon all have different models for providing similar B2C services. If e-commerce continues to grow, we may see even more entrants to the market. This is just the slow maturation of a business area that UPS has evolved with for over a hundred years.

I believe this is one of the reasons why FDX cut ties with them. We are concentrating more on high yield DG and medical related items that flying toothpaste and toilet paper around. Hopefully it works out long-term.

UPS health care business has grown exponentially over the last couple of years, in fact, that is a major area of focus, very profitable, we have opened multiple distribution facilities around the country to better serve time sensitive merchandise /items.

Again, don’t understand why people need to put down a competitor when posting a reply, “flying toothpaste and toilet paper around”, really?

No one knows how these decisions will turn out, no one has a magic wand. Both Fedex and UPS are adapting, transforming, both will be fine. Neither is sitting idle doing nothing. There is plenty of volume to go around. These analysts are a bunch of overpaid, over privileged baffoons who love to spread doom and gloom, for Fedex, UPS, whoever.

I doubt that we're flying much toothpaste or toilet paper.

The Amazon ramp now under construction in CVG will add 100 aircraft parking spots. The new Amazon ramp scheduled to complete in 2023? will add 200 more aircraft parking spots. 300 new spots total in CVG.

I wonder if there is anything preventing UPS aircraft from using the amazon ramp to fly amazon stuff...?

Not from our end

UPS is getting a smaller piece of a growing pie. UPS keeps eating the high margin piece, though. It's good to be king.

https://ritholtz.com/2019/12/some-pe...medium=twitter

This makes sense from what we have heard...Amazon and UPS working together.

Well, maybe. Short term? Yes.. Long term? I guess you’d have to define “working together” and look into which side truly benefits from this relationship.
Personally I believe Fred was right in cutting ties with Amazon.

Mesa is gonna fly outta there I bet.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The way I look at it, UPS is the human and Amazon is the cute wild bear the human is raising. At first the bear is friendly and playful and able to be tamed by the human. We all know the bear will grow up and will eat the human the first chance it gets. Just sayin, I think FedEx did the right thing by kicking that damn bear out of its house!

Hold your... Here comes Sun Country too!

https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-...it-11576621801

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/17/fedex-fdx-earnings-q2-fy-2020.html

FedEx struggling with the divorce terms, but still profitable. Personally, I see this as a growing market space that was going to have room for another player. There will eventually be further drama when UPS and Amazon inevitably squabble, but ultimately I’m guessing they all survive.

Like I can afford a wall street journal subscription! How about a cut and paste?

I'm saving up so I can afford bid pro

Same business, but FedEx and UPS have long had different strategic but successful strategies.
If look back at UPS history, they fought the USPS everywhere in the government. FedEx took the omnipotent USPS contract in 2013 that they already had and have it till Oct 2024. It provides FedEx 1.5 billion a year. UPS didn't really want it and lost the opportunity in 2013. UPS went after TNT, but European competition committee gutted the deal and UPS wisely left.
FedEx has had a tough time with TNT.
Much of the business is on the ground. UPS has always been determined to minimize exposure in last mile of delivery. Amazon is investing huge in ground delivery. UPS now allows private vehicle delivery. UPS is heavily unionized, FedEx and Amazon zero. UPS sees an in, they just rolled out temporary workers using own vehicles.


https://www.detroitnews.com/story/bu...ries/40704203/

"United Parcel Service Inc. is expanding its hires of drivers using their own vehicles to help with the avalanche of holiday deliveries spawned by online shopping, and that’s rattling veteran drivers of the iconic brown van from New York to Kentucky."

Unlike competitors FedEx Corp. and Amazon.com Inc., UPS has a unionized workforce, and local Teamsters leaders aren’t happy with a trend they see as reducing opportunities for their members and hurting the UPS brand.

“They’re lowering their own standards so much,” said Vincent Perrone, president of Local 804 in New York City and Long Island, where the personal-vehicle drivers will be used for the first time this year. The local has filed a labor grievance with UPS to challenge the jobs.

UPS’s expanding use of temporary employees who use their own cars to make deliveries is stoking tension between the courier and unionized workers after a contentious battle over a new labor contract last year. One sore point: Permanent drivers worry the expanded seasonal hires will mean they’ll earn less overtime during the busiest season of the year."

Am certain UPS is going for permanent private vehicles in certain areas. Later, they will team with non union Amazon workers to deliver stuff just like UPS uses USPS to deliver UPS stuff. Staying close moving high yield Amazon volume gives many strategic cost benefits to UPS. Fred chose another path, but common for each to choose own path. Nothing new strategically in my view. Just a change in opportunity for the big companies. I think UPS has got some great opportunity staying in the mix with Amazon. Both can work out cost advantages outside of simply air side. (and UPS will still move it profitably)
Lots of moving parts.

Now that's funny right there, I don't care who you are.

Salty - I have tremendous respect for you, the EB and for our union in general. ..and I definitely listen to people who’ve way more experience and knowledge than I ever will.
I consider myself a half-full guy; if anything my friends tell me that sometimes I’m somewhat naive and too optimistic. However, I’m also a realist.
It’s too early to tell whether our amazon gamble will pay off. I hope it will but I view them as an increasingly hostile competitor rather than someone we “work with”.

I’m skeptical of our upper management’s plans because they’ve shown us before they value short-term gains (dividends) over long-term plans for our company.
There have been sooo many huge mistakes made here and yet, in each case, the top brass ended up with lavish retirement packages. Does anyone remember the DHL deal that fell through? TNT? Postal contract? I’m sure I’ve forgotten others.
As far as Fdx regretting TNT deal - apparently Petya, the ransom-ware virus they experienced a couple of years ago, and which they’re still recovering from, cost them MUCH more than fdx is willing to admit. ...and they admitted to $300 million..

The economy is great right now and we keep hiring new pilots so many people have forgotten, or maybe have never experienced the setbacks of our seemingly recent past.

I remember the 2004~2007 time-frame. Things were great, we were hiring like crazy, getting new airplanes (767s) and many guys and gals were retiring early. Then the slowing economy, the age 65 rule and the parking of our 72s and dc8s brought ALL early retirements to a screeching halt. In a blink of an eye we went from “you’ll be a captain in 5-6 years” to “I hope I don’t get furloughed”.

Why am I bringing this up? Frankly, because sometimes it feels like a case of déjà vu. ...because I think the upper management cares more about raising the dividend than about having a long term plan for growing the company/airline. Sounds familiar?

The way I see it we are hiring primarily because of the incredible economy the country is experiencing right now (people tend to retire early when the stock market is up). However, instead of focusing on growing our own business we seem to be helping our future competition to grow their business - exponentially may I add. :rolleyes:

Again Salty, I respect your perspective, I truly do and I’ll always remember the tremendous amount of work you and others put in to help the junior guys/gals here who’re about to get furloughed back then. ..but I hope you understand why I don’t trust them and why I’m skeptical when it comes to this blue & brown marriage of convenience.

To me amazon is a Trojan horse the enemy left behind. ..and we took the bait because we are in it together. ...riiight?

Sincerely hope I’m wrong.

Back to regular programming..


LOL!!

.

I don't think ATL is kowtowing to Amazon; they've admitted that volume is low margin and as such previously refused to add airframes to support it.

I could be wrong, but arguably that is as much if not more a reason for the creation of Prime Air as the 2013 Christmas debacle was.

August was when FedEx announced it would end its shipping contract with Amazon, and by that point we had already announced 49 growth airframes to be delivered between 2017 and 2022.

Even if every MD got rapidly parked ala the DC8, that'd still result in a net gain of 12 airframes from 1 Sept 16.

As a new guy (I think all 14+ hires are going to be called that for another decade or so, lol) I can certainly understand suspicion toward management's intentions...but Abney isn't Davis and the CapEx spent to grow the business in general and Air in particular these last few years seem to demonstrate that.

What's that Sideshow always says "Expectation something something"? :D

All very good points Boiler and I’ll (again!) be the first one to admit when/if I’m wrong. I truly hope you’re right.
New airplanes being delivered doesn’t mean much to me as we were getting new planes back then too. Age 67/68, a slowing economy and/or parking of MD11s, BCFs and some 757s on the other hand would change the equation in a heartbeat.

I’m used to “Expectation Zero”. However, sometimes it feels as though our company’s slogan of “Worldwide Services” is slowly being replaced with ”Work Hard. Have Fun. Make History.” :rolleyes:

So let me get this straight? Revenue growth of near consistently 5% quarter after quarter, BILLIONS spent upgrading sorting facilities, expanding/hedging new revenue sources (health care, B2B, B2C), creating new Asian lanes and lowering delivery times, a CEO who consistently says he is “cautiously” optimistic, laser focus on unit profitability, etc, etc. Not even going to mention new airplanes as they are almost irrelevant to the growth.

I would argue a company focusing on short term gains would not be spending billions in CAPEX. A decade+ ago we were not about to enter a prolonged period of massive retirements, no one was even close to 30 years. You can be all the skeptical you want, much different times. And age 67, everyone has an opinion, let’s just say one big player (ALPA) wants no part of it and will fight it very hard, just one player among many (including EASA) that don’t want it.

That is also why I commend Fedex for taking the long view, thinking years from now. Wall street (not that it means anything) had been very critical of UPS the last few quarters for being behind on CAPEX, now finally onboard CAPEX finally being made in a big way. If you are referring yo short term gains with Amazon, well, that is to be seen. I figure they have 2-3 years to wean off it, slowly while replacing with a different revenue source. Maybe their approach is why rip off the bandage when I can nurse the wound a bit longer and slowly get rid of the medication. Or maybe, just maybe, they will negotiate a long term deal to carry a guaranteed portion of their stuff. No one knows.

NOTHING is impossible, of course. But comparing middle 2000’s and now is simply misguided and based in emotion. Very different set of economic and situational circumstances. Oh, and consumers keep buying MORE AND MORE online rather than brick and mortar, another phenomena that did not exist back then.

Interesting. How can we say amazon “delivers” 50% of their packages, when really its contracted out. The many DSP companies that deliver their packages, and also wear their uniform and drive an amazon branded vehicle or sometimes not. From what I know, amazon has very few of their own drivers, which they’re currently trying to phase out of the picture. Apparently the liability isn’t worth it. Makes sense, but contracting these jobs out has to cost more, so even if they have that huge estimate, UPS or FedEx’s estimate would likely result in profits that are almost identical if not a tad bit less??


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Out of curiosity, how do you guys see Amazon Air playing out for pilots? Low-pay, high turnover, stepping stone or eventually a decent place to spend a career?

So long as Amazon utilizes the DHL model of multiple carriers to whipsaw against each other, 'decent' is probably going to be as good as it gets.

The whole purpose of this thread was to discuss whether Fedex’s approach to amazon (cutting ties) makes more sense than keeping doing business with them (ups).
I don’t know who’s right but personally I wish we’d cut those ties as I feel it’ll hurt us in the long run. (How long until they block their 3rd party sellers from shipping ups? An honest question)

Regarding your reassuring ALPA statement..
(sorry, but I find your trust in alpa’s stance somewhat amusing. :D)

Are we talking about the same ALPA?? Does age 65 ring a bell?
For years Alpa was against raising the age 60 retirement age - until one day they were for it.
..and their change of heart happened pretty much overnight..
I still remember crashpad roommate telling me ALPA would NEVER give in to raising the retirement age back then... haha..
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Pilots union backs 65 as new retirement age
John Schmeltzer, Tribune staff reporter
CHICAGO TRIBUNE
May 25, 2007
The Air Line Pilots Association, the nation's largest pilots union, on Thursday said it will support raising the retirement age of pilots to 65 from 60, a move that likely will hasten the end of a long-running dispute about how old is too old to fly a commercial jet.

The switch risks dividing the union, which for the last 15 years has actively opposed efforts to raise the retirement age...

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https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/...797-story.html

Its interesting that our flying has increased dramatically, and many airframes added... but we are still below 3000 pilots. They have covered the flying by adding legs so we fly more milk runs. In addition, people are flying a lot of open time and taking JA calls. For years, this wasn’t an option. There is no way this place would operate without the open time pickups or JA staffing model. In the end, we will be a lot better served if the pilots would would fly less of both.

If there is a slowdown, then it should still require hiring to staff the planes. So while the fear of a repeat from the recent history may exist, I don’t think we’re anywhere near where we were with the bean counter running the place. There has been a lot of investment into offloading pressure on SDF.

Amazon has developed a market where everyone expects everything tomorrow. The business has grown the entire segment, so there is probably room for another player. Albeit one that is putting pressure on the low yield segment.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/for-fedex-it-can-always-get-worse/2019/12/18/28b471be-21ae-11ea-b034-de7dc2b5199b_story.html

More piling onto FedEx management by Wall Street types. Could be a great time to buy stock in FedEx or a lousy time to be approaching contract negotiations.

Hmm, maybe our management’s approach to doing business with Amazon was right after all? Time will tell.

In the long run I hope the government declares Amazon a monopoly and breaks it up in accordance with the Clayton Antitrust Act.

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By Paul Ziobro
Updated Dec. 18, 2019 5:13 pm ET

It turns out there is no such thing as free shipping.

Shares of FedEx Corp. tumbled 10% on Wednesday, highlighting investor concerns about the delivery giant’s ability to adapt as more of its business shifts to delivering less profitable e-commerce packages to homes.

The overnight delivery pioneer on Tuesday reported a 40% drop in fiscal second-quarter profits and cut its earnings targets for the fourth time in 2019.

FedEx has been squeezed by a global drop in profitable Express air shipments, generally sent between businesses, and the added costs of building its Ground network, which is typically associated with package delivery from online merchants. In the latest quarter, domestic Express parcel volumes fell 4.1% from a year ago, while Ground shipments rose 3.5%.

Historically, FedEx largely avoided e-commerce shipments, leaving much of that business to rival United Parcel Service Inc. and the U.S. Postal Service. Amazon.com Inc., the biggest online retailer, accounted for just 1.3% of its revenue last year, the company says.

But FedEx executives decided over the last year to embrace e-commerce orders, a strategy they said they have been preparing for years as they watched the shift to online shopping and the deteriorating finances of the Postal Service, its key partner in handling such packages.

The company has added dozens of facilities to sort packages, including specialized centers to handle oversize packages, and now makes regular weekend deliveries.

The transition is shaping up to be one of the most arduous in FedEx’s four-decade history, and some on Wall Street are openly questioning longtime CEO Fred Smith’s strategy.

One reason is that FedEx is chasing growth in a less profitable sector. Online parcels are generally small and lightweight, a combination for lower revenue per package. They are also costly to deliver since drivers generally drop off one package to individual homes.

That contrasts with FedEx’s larger business delivering shipments between businesses. In that business, packages are larger and generate more revenue, while companies often ship multiple packages to each other. Such shipments tend to be more profitable, but growth there has stalled.

Operating profit margins in FedEx’s e-commerce-heavy Ground business plunged to 6.7% in the fiscal second quarter, down from 12.4% in the first quarter. Executives blamed issues including the costs of delivering seven days a week, the timing of the Cyber Monday holiday, a compressed holiday shipping season that required more staffing and the loss of Amazon as a customer.

“Standing up to [a] six- and seven-day network was very expensive for us,” Mr. Smith told analysts on a conference call Tuesday. “And we certainly anticipated some of it, but we probably underestimated the cost of standing it up.”

FedEx executives vowed that Ground profit margins would return to prior levels after the holiday crush. But some analysts were skeptical, arguing that the timing of Cyber Monday and condensed holiday calendar were known in advance. UPS, which has invested to expand and modernize its ground network, has posted strong sales and profits in recent quarters.

“It is difficult to have clear visibility to improvement on Ground margin given the magnitude of decline and the number of moving parts,” said UBS analyst Tom Wadewitz. “There remains a sharp contrast between the favorable trends at UPS and the margin weakness plaguing FDX.”

Mr. Smith defended his strategy to stop delivering packages for Amazon this year and embrace e-commerce deliveries from companies like Walmart Inc. and Target Corp. It also has decided to deliver more of the residential orders that it previously handed off the Postal Service.

The shift has moved the company into a lower-margin business where it will compete not just with UPS and Postal Service but also Amazon, which is ramping up its own delivery network.

“In the last weekend that just finished, we delivered over 14 million packages on Saturday and Sunday,” Mr. Smith said on Tuesday. “We weren’t even delivering packages on the weekend a couple of years ago.”

To curb spending, FedEx on Tuesday said it would reduce capacity in its Express air network, including grounding 10 cargo planes and cutting flight hours. Previously, Mr. Smith has come under fire for his reluctance to pare the Express network and the decision to spend on new jets.

Analysts asked executives on the conference call whether FedEx needs to consider bigger strategic changes, such as integrating its Express and Ground units. The two currently operate independently, which can result in employees from each division visiting the same address on the same day. Mr. Smith has argued the arrangement is necessary to ensure critical Express deliveries arrive on time.

“Wall Street is looking for a silver bullet to magically ‘fix’ FedEx,” Rick Paterson, an analyst at Loop Capital Markets, wrote in a note to clients. “The dual [pickup and delivery] networks may at some point be a luxury FedEx can no longer afford.” Mr. Paterson said he was surprised “we haven’t yet seen any [investor] activism with regard to FedEx, touting structural changes such as this one.”

Mr. Smith, 75 years old, has run FedEx since he started the company in 1971. He remains one of the company’s largest shareholders with a nearly 6% stake. But like other investors, he has suffered investment losses over the last year. FedEx shares, worth more than $250 last year, closed Wednesday at $146.86.

Write to Paul Ziobro at [email protected]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fedex-s...688289?mod=mhp

There is something to be said, high efficiencies gained by having a fully integrated network, ground/air all one employee group. Having seen it first hand, when UPS drivers get their trucks loaded (they don’t do it themselves), the Express/Air packages get sorted separately and the drivers have a very high degree of sensitivity to the importance of getting the Express/Air packages delivered by the time required. So to the main argument, UPS delivery trucks operate as ONE source, and they understand the importance of the Air side packages, they bust their butts to get those packages delivered first/on time. The UPS delivery system has gotten very good at sorting out time sensitive/time constrained items. For example, say you have a Next Day Air package in your truck, but it’s not a morning delivery, just an economy by the nd of day next day. The UPS sorting system has gotten very good at organizing packages to combine geographical deliveries, meaning a non time sensitive Air package in a truck is combined with a ground delivery. So you make ONE stop, deliver on time the Air package and while in the area deliver the ground package as well. I do believe Fedex is starting to realize the efficiencies gained with an integrated system. It always cracks me up when Fedex call 490k+ teammates, when virtually ALL the Ground side folks are 1099/independent contractors! No benefits, no retirement, nothing!! Pay attention to the Fedex Ground trucks, they all have “Operated by.....” on the side.

The UPS drivers have a very high level of stress and performance on them, they deliver ALL for UPS, and know of they don’t deliver the Air side packages on time it’s a huge cost to eat. There is a reason UPS drivers make the most money, they earn it big time. They are very appreciative of the pension being accumulated, and also being the highest earning delivery drivers.

This post may be biased, I try hard not to put down any competitor, especially one as formidable as Fedex, but the integrated network and the independent contractor info is fact, not opinion.

Completely honest question - So please don’t think I’m picking a fight here. I’ve heard this same idea in numerous places and I’m just wondering what the thought process is. What do we gain from being over staffed? I like having flexibility with JA and open time. For many junior commuters, open time trading makes life far easier. I feel That when pilots are needed it ultimately gives us more leverage. I also feel like it gives us a buffer when things aren’t going so well with the economy. The only argument I’ve really heard is that we get better lines....as if having a lot of pilots means we can run things less efficiently. Overmanned and inefficient doesn’t seem like a recipe for successful competition. What am I missing?

Watch out, UPS.. Amazon delivering half...
 

I don’t want overstaffed...but appropriately staffed would sure be nice.

What’s “appropriately staffed” look like? IMO, no reserve turn-outs or extensions into days off.

Trip Trade Denied: Insufficient Reserve Coverage has gotten rather old....

Proper staffing means more high paid captain seats.

We’re not over staffed. They do more with less. Trips are more fatiguing. 4 legs through the night. As a pilot, I’d like a safe schedule that allows me to not operate on the edge of total fatigue. That’s not overstaffing.

As to what we gain by not picking up open time and JAs... it’s part of their staffing model. If we didn’t do all the extra flying, they would ultimately hire more and upgrades come quicker.

This is the fundamental issue we’ve been talking about for years. Who’s right?