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Thrust Hold 01-11-2023 01:42 PM


Originally Posted by BoilerUP (Post 3569157)
The airline grew by 53 airframes (22%) in five years starting Oct 2017. We're adding 28 more 767s in the next four years, including nine this year, though six MDs will get parked. Future of the MD beyond this year, or at least the Pratt-powered ones, is TBD.

In the same five year period, the pilot group grew by over 750 pilots (27.5%). 2022 represented the biggest pilot hiring year at UPS since 1994, and the seniority list grew by 286 (8.9%).

The bids in Nov and Jan created 93 new CPT positions in two months, albeit no new vacancies for newhires. Training will start next month for the Jan bid, which has an effective date of mid-July.

The retirement curve has been flattened by early retirements, with attrition running 2-3x mandatory retirements for a number of years now, but our mandatory retirement wave really begins 2026 then runs for over a decade.

None of that is to say things are all puppies and rainbows...but IMO the sky ain't falling.

Welcome to our (FedEx) world. We just started the process a few months prior to y’all. Jump on in the water is warm.

In all seriousness, We’ll all be fine. We’re all coming off of unprecedented growth, progression and earning opportunities. It was bound to return to normal at some point. We all just got a lil spoiled.

Hopefully no one started living up to those unsustainable means.

CCCXCI 01-11-2023 01:51 PM

I just finished my 4th peak at UPS and the fourth in a row that all I heard was “loads are way down, furloughs are coming”. Also the 4th in a row that UPS has posted record profits. (Although to be fair no word on this past peak yet.) To a man almost everyone that posts on BG says the company is bankrupt, furloughs coming, the new guys are gonna be the end of the union, blah blah blah yet profits keep going up as well as union participation and every other metric. I was still on probation when COVID hit so I still payed a lot of attention to class size etc. There was a 2-3 month period where hiring slowed significantly. That little move probably cost UPS hundreds of millions of dollars in terms of lost revenue. Of course old habits die hard here.

My .02c… hiring will slow…a little…for a while, then we will be back in it. If I was a poolie or applicant I wouldn’t even consider this in my decision. Optimizer schedules on the other hand….

UPSFO4LIFE 01-11-2023 02:06 PM


Originally Posted by CCCXCI (Post 3569185)
I just finished my 4th peak at UPS and the fourth in a row that all I heard was “loads are way down, furloughs are coming”. Also the 4th in a row that UPS has posted record profits. (Although to be fair no word on this past peak yet.) To a man almost everyone that posts on BG says the company is bankrupt, furloughs coming, the new guys are gonna be the end of the union, blah blah blah yet profits keep going up as well as union participation and every other metric. I was still on probation when COVID hit so I still payed a lot of attention to class size etc. There was a 2-3 month period where hiring slowed significantly. That little move probably cost UPS hundreds of millions of dollars in terms of lost revenue. Of course old habits die hard here.

My .02c… hiring will slow…a little…for a while, then we will be back in it. If I was a poolie or applicant I wouldn’t even consider this in my decision. Optimizer schedules on the other hand….

First of all, profits here have nothing to do with the airline as hiring and furloughs go. This place was profitable in 08 and, well, you see what happened. Second, I have not heard anyone even mention the F word. I do think hiring will slow or stop and do think upgrade will slow very rapidly over the next few years. I by no means think the sky is falling here, but UPS will do what UPS does which is to get by with minimal personnel as possible.

C2078 01-11-2023 02:43 PM


Originally Posted by CCCXCI (Post 3569185)
I just finished my 4th peak at UPS and the fourth in a row that all I heard was “loads are way down, furloughs are coming”. Also the 4th in a row that UPS has posted record profits. (Although to be fair no word on this past peak yet.) To a man almost everyone that posts on BG says the company is bankrupt, furloughs coming, the new guys are gonna be the end of the union, blah blah blah yet profits keep going up as well as union participation and every other metric. I was still on probation when COVID hit so I still payed a lot of attention to class size etc. There was a 2-3 month period where hiring slowed significantly. That little move probably cost UPS hundreds of millions of dollars in terms of lost revenue. Of course old habits die hard here.

My .02c… hiring will slow…a little…for a while, then we will be back in it. If I was a poolie or applicant I wouldn’t even consider this in my decision. Optimizer schedules on the other hand….

I think you are being way too optimistic. It is going to be status quo, slow until they finish disposing of the MD. Now if they order a replacement for the MD as rumored (March or April), that’s a different story. But expect upgrades to increase back to historical norms and hiring to slow significantly, if any for a while. And no, profits has zero impact on how the airline is operated. If there is one good thing about UPS, it is they are quick to adjust, this company is always planning for the next recession/slowdown.

CCCXCI 01-11-2023 02:51 PM

Fair enough, you guys have been here longer than me. All I’m saying is I’ve heard nothing but doom and gloom since I got here and it has been anything but…

I’ll check back next year and you guys can say “told ya so”…..or not

And if I had a quarter for every time I read or heard someone use the “f” word… well you know the rest

FTv3 01-11-2023 05:47 PM

Retirement wave will keep things fluid. Doubt we will see stagnation like previous decade for quite a while.

MD11Simnerd 01-11-2023 06:09 PM


Originally Posted by FTv3 (Post 3569403)
Retirement wave will keep things fluid. Doubt we will see stagnation like previous decade for quite a while.

I agree it won't be stagnation like the last decade, but like I said earlier, they are going to take a break from hiring while the economy shakes out. No "F" word, but no "H" word for a bit..

YangonYangon 01-12-2023 02:00 AM


Originally Posted by BoilerUP (Post 3569011)
93 new CPT positions have been created in the last two months, between the Nov bid and this Jan bid.

Hey dude, how long have you been practicing your speech pattern and facial expression while talking to make yourself look like a mini-travis? Those videos are hilarious you should do more.

Asking for a friend.

flyguy23 01-12-2023 02:09 AM


Originally Posted by YangonYangon (Post 3569553)
Hey dude, how long have you been practicing your speech pattern and facial expression while talking to make yourself look like a mini-travis? Those videos are hilarious you should do more.

Asking for a friend.


Feel better?

FTv3 01-12-2023 05:06 AM

How do we block people again?


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