Retirements at the Big 3
05-21-2015, 07:10 AM
#1
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Joined APC: Mar 2012
Position: 320B
Posts: 454
Retirements at the Big 3
Ok so we all get it. UAL, DAL, and AA have massive retirements over the next 15+ years. My question is...for a guy being hired right now, which one has the MOST retirements? They can't be exactly the same...anyone have the real numbers?
05-21-2015, 07:40 AM
#3
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Joined APC: Dec 2007
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Posts: 5,213
"Most"? Percentage would be more important. And are you looking at 5 yrs? 10 yrs? 15 yrs?
It's your lucky day. I found the piece of scrap paper with the data yesterday.(percentages change due to the increase in hiring increasing the total crew list but the changes aren't huge) -
5 yrs 10 yrs 15 yrs (2020/2025/2030)
AA 21% 53 77
DL 19 52 75
UA 20 41 67
SW 12 25 44
FDX 23 49 73
UPS 14 35 69
That's why many say it doesn't matter, take the major job in your hometown.
Reality is DL has hired the most guys recently so you're behind the power curve on that bow wave. AA has hired the least. That's why, in spite of the DL profit sharing value ($$) in it's contract, that AA is in high demand at job fairs. Similar retirement numbers as DL in the next 15 years and fewer young guys already hired ahead of you for the last 15 years.
It's your lucky day. I found the piece of scrap paper with the data yesterday.(percentages change due to the increase in hiring increasing the total crew list but the changes aren't huge) -
5 yrs 10 yrs 15 yrs (2020/2025/2030)
AA 21% 53 77
DL 19 52 75
UA 20 41 67
SW 12 25 44
FDX 23 49 73
UPS 14 35 69
That's why many say it doesn't matter, take the major job in your hometown.
Reality is DL has hired the most guys recently so you're behind the power curve on that bow wave. AA has hired the least. That's why, in spite of the DL profit sharing value ($$) in it's contract, that AA is in high demand at job fairs. Similar retirement numbers as DL in the next 15 years and fewer young guys already hired ahead of you for the last 15 years.
05-21-2015, 08:08 AM
#4
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Joined APC: Mar 2012
Position: 320B
Posts: 454
Originally Posted by Sliceback
"Most"? Percentage would be more important. And are you looking at 5 yrs? 10 yrs? 15 yrs?
It's your lucky day. I found the piece of scrap paper with the data yesterday.(percentages change due to the increase in hiring increasing the total crew list but the changes aren't huge) -
5 yrs 10 yrs 15 yrs (2020/2025/2030)
AA 21% 53 77
DL 19 52 75
UA 20 41 67
SW 12 25 44
FDX 23 49 73
UPS 14 35 69
That's why many say it doesn't matter, take the major job in your hometown.
Reality is DL has hired the most guys recently so you're behind the power curve on that bow wave. AA has hired the least. That's why, in spite of the DL profit sharing value ($$) in it's contract, that AA is in high demand at job fairs. Similar retirement numbers as DL in the next 15 years and fewer young guys already hired ahead of you for the last 15 years.
It's your lucky day. I found the piece of scrap paper with the data yesterday.(percentages change due to the increase in hiring increasing the total crew list but the changes aren't huge) -
5 yrs 10 yrs 15 yrs (2020/2025/2030)
AA 21% 53 77
DL 19 52 75
UA 20 41 67
SW 12 25 44
FDX 23 49 73
UPS 14 35 69
That's why many say it doesn't matter, take the major job in your hometown.
Reality is DL has hired the most guys recently so you're behind the power curve on that bow wave. AA has hired the least. That's why, in spite of the DL profit sharing value ($$) in it's contract, that AA is in high demand at job fairs. Similar retirement numbers as DL in the next 15 years and fewer young guys already hired ahead of you for the last 15 years.
05-21-2015, 08:14 AM
#5
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Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: Window seat
Posts: 5,213
Originally Posted by TurbineDriver
Great post, thanks. Source of this "piece of scrap paper?"
It was sometimes slightly different than internal data I had but not enough to matter.
I did it late last year or early this year. Previous posted on apc.
05-21-2015, 08:19 AM
#7
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Joined APC: Mar 2012
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Originally Posted by Sliceback
apc retirement data. And posts on apc with updated retirement data.
It was sometimes slightly different than internal data I had but not enough to matter.
I did it late last year or early this year. Previous posted on apc.
It was sometimes slightly different than internal data I had but not enough to matter.
I did it late last year or early this year. Previous posted on apc.
05-21-2015, 08:22 AM
#8
Otto
Joined APC: Jul 2013
Position: Turkish Pile Driver
Posts: 1,806
Originally Posted by TurbineDriver
I have been looking at Delta retirements and noticed it only goes until 2027. Anybody have data past that?
05-21-2015, 08:29 AM
#9
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Originally Posted by TurbineDriver
I have been looking at Delta retirements and noticed it only goes until 2027. Anybody have data past that?
DL numbers that I have
2028 - 491
2029 - 485
2030 - 500
No guarantees on accuracy. Best shot attempt.
05-21-2015, 09:36 AM
#10
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Joined APC: Apr 2007
Posts: 462
Will the current regional guys absorb most of this? I'm new to the 121 world, thinking about jumping to the regionals for a stint and hopefully getting on with a major or lcc. Just wondering how it looks for a 0 time 121 guy?
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