Mesabah

Endeavor will not grow, and continue to shrink, so long as you need to be a former astronaut to get hired here. 800+ apps has yielded 10 new hire pilots. Management needs to realize pilots don't care what brand is written on the side of the RJ, pilot's careers are far more important.

Dunkin

Anything can happen and we all know that, but AAG has more expensive 50 seat contracts that expire prior to the first PSA 200 coming off lease. I've been in the 121 industry for only decade and been through downgrades, furloughs, base closers, mergers, and bankruptcies but being pessimistic just because is pointless but this forum wouldn't exist if people weren't always worried about the worst possible outcome.

pa28dakota

Exactly my fear moving laterally. Generally, I've had a good life...except when it came to career moves where it seems Murphy's Law tends to apply. So when I look at a regional carrier I look at what is the absolute worst that is likely to happen. PSA could move their 50s to the desert prior to the lease being up slowing movement. CPZ could tell American they are having issues staffing the new American flying (I'm already hearing this rumor) again slowing movement. 9E will cease to exist in it's current form but how that plays out is still anyone's guess. I personally don't think Delta is done messing with/experimenting with 9E in some form. I only wish I had an idea what their plan was when we hit 81 airframes. Point is the regional market is so screwed up that the music can stop anywhere quick. I have friends that chased quick upgrades and it bit them in the butt. Others got lucky. My past experience leads to me to be pessimistic and worry I wouldn't be one of the lucky ones. My decision needs to be careful and calculated considering living in NY and having family that heavily doesn't support my starting over. They don't get it or understand the biz though. If I hear, "Why hasn't jetBlue called you yet?" one more time I'll scream!

pa28dakota

I personally think they do know this...and don't care as it is part of their plan. A test of brand loyalty? Or a precursor to a Comair style shutdown?

MrMustache

Compass is having no problems staffing. A friend got put into a class in late January the other day. At 40 a month starting in November I don't think thats struggling. Plus another 40 between Sept and Oct it sounds like talking to the training department.

pa28dakota

only something I saw/heard floating around about CPZ only projecting to be able to staff half the AAL flying..rumors that's all like I stated. My overall question is now how long can the poaching of other regionals go on before the dust settles? Once the lateral movements stop what is there left? There are fewer and fewer US pilots coming up through the CFI ranks.

Waitingformins

They probably aren't but every month their hiring the guys they want and culling the guys they don't. What does anybody do with anything once their done cherry picking through what they want.

pa28dakota

My theory...severance/retirement packages for top guys....CJOs who make it through the SSP that's eventually expanded or they just interview FOs off the street...permanently furlough the rest who just refuse to leave or who couldn't hack it. Endeavor closes. Streamline, take who ya want, cull the rest...that's how I would do it. But what do I know, I am just a pilot with no MBA.

Snickers

I'd take the rumors you hear about compass at endeavor with a grain of salt. Matter of fact, dont take them at all. The rumors on airlink pilots about compass are pretty comical.

I don't think lateral moves will stop within the regional sector. Slow maybe, but as consolidation of undesirable airframes increases the pilots at those carriers have to choose between stagnation or an attempt to further their careers and increase their quality of life. I don't agree with it and feel for those affected but this is the world we live in. Personally, at a recent job fair a recruiter asked me about my lateral move and when I explained my reasoning he seemed content that my resignation was a display of initiative to accomplish my goals rather than a lack of loyalty to my employer.

As for there not being enough CFIs, I can't say I agree. I've spoken to the CFIs at the school where I used to work and those guys/gals are desperate to get on ANYWHERE. I find it totally understable because I felt the same way after years of instructing. Simply, you don't know what you don't know and the variables that dictate which airline you should go to are only learned in hindsight. Although the Compass training program is more inclined to prior 121 folks, we have hired CFIs and they have been successful in training and as line pilots. I'm confident if they couldn't find prior 121 pilots, our recruitment team will still be able to find competent pilots with a great attitude. We have a really cool group here, and I have to commend our recruitment team for doing a good job on that.

Just my $0.02, and we all know how much that is worth.

Snickers

My theory is either A) comair or B) drive it down to 81 airplanes and 1000 pilots followed by massive growth. Take for example XJ in bankruptcy and out of bankruptcy where upgrades fell to 6 months once the furloughed pilots returned. Or more notably Mesa and PSA. Airline management has no worry to cover feed when they can simply transfer airframes and the pilots will follow them or that carrier now becomes more attractive to aspiring pilots because of the accompanying quick upgrade/better quality of life.