Originally Posted by PilotCrusader

I have my doubts about envoy as well, but let's look at the facts a little closer:
1) In 2 years, it will be under 200 lifers at envoy now.(standard retirements and quite a few senior guys decided to flow now that AA first year pay went up)
2) Also, 2 years from now, envoy would have flowed almost 600 pilots. That means the seniority of the guy just below the lifers will be under 7 years. Basically, relative seniority will be lower than that of many other regionals, even with us lifers.
3) It's not exactly Comair's game plan: Comair had new 900s dangled in front of them that only required a differences program. The 175 requires a brand new training program. If they wanted to shut envoy down, they would have dangled PSAs 900s. Makes a lot more sense.

Personally, I don't see a shutdown for envoy. I see them merging with PDT first(Why have 2 145 carriers and 2 separate training programs?). In 2 years, when PSA is done growing, envoy will be "right sized" and taking new aircraft. Upgrade time will drop rapidly.

Envoy has expended a lot of money making pipeline programs at colleges. We have 38 such schools in a pipeline that didn't even exist 2 years ago. These students get flight, medical, and other benefits. This isn't a program to bring people here today - it is for later. Why would we spend all this money on a program for later, at a company AAG plans to shut down?

As far as total regional size: I say we are down to about 15000 pilots in a few years. Congress will intervene after a few summers of hell, provided no one dirtnaps a plane.

Originally Posted by CBreezy

It's a bird! It's a plane! No, it's Unfounded Speculation Man!

Originally Posted by Holy Toledo

The E-170 sim in CVG is on a 24/7 lease to RAH, they control all of the time.

Originally Posted by ThreeStripe

That would explain why it is not being used. They need to find a pilot willing to work there first.

Originally Posted by aflyingtuba

RAH is facing a big attrition problem, epsecially on the S5 170 side. Mainline, Endeavor, and Shuttle 145s are picking up the slack in LGA. Cancellations for crew are averaging 30-40/day right now, and summer can only get worse. Reserves are maxed out (assuming your base has any next month, only 2 do), and lineholders are getting reassigned daily.

The company and union are promising a TA at the end of the month, and the rumors have it being far and above all other regionals. "BB wants to steal pilots to run the others into the ground".

That said, if the TA gets delayed, or worse, it doesn't live up to the hype and gets rejected, than FOs are likely to flee the sinking ship. If RAH can't hire or buyout pilots from somewhere soon, let the implosion begin.

Originally Posted by FEtoFO

The rumors sounds great, but I don't see BB paying out that kind of money. I'm certain 1st year FO pay will be industry leading, but i don't expect much for the left seat. If this TA gets voted down, the RAH will be gone within a couple years. Maybe one of the certificates survive, but not both.

Originally Posted by Holy Toledo

When you buy an E-Jet you get a certain amount of entitlement sim training alloted to each airframe at FSI. This puts you at the head of the line for sim availability. Once that runs out, then you're in the pool with everyone else to find sim time. And it's competitive.

The E-170 sim in CVG is on a 24/7 lease to RAH, they control all of the time in it.

Companies starting programs like Envoy will have no trouble getting sim training until they get closer to the end of the deliveries. And by that time I'm sure AAG will be looking for their own simulator.

Originally Posted by SayAlt

There are 23 Regional airlines listed by APC. They are:

...

All of which begs the question (given what is known vs. unknown):

Who is still around 5-10 years from now, and who isn't?

Originally Posted by ORDinary

What about Option C: consolidation?