SayAlt

There are 23 Regional airlines listed by APC. They are:

Air Choice One
Air Wisconsin
Cape Air
CommutAir
Compass Airlines
Corvus Airlines
Endeavor Air
Envoy Air
Era Alaska
ExpressJet
GoJet Airlines
Great Lakes Airlines
Horizon Air
Island Air
Mesa Airlines
Peninsula Airways
Piedmont Airlines
PSA Airlines
Republic Airlines
Seaborne Airlines
Silver Airways
SkyWest

It has been predicted that the coming wave of retirements vs. pilot supply...among other things...will cause a number of these companies to become defunct.

Over on another thread, it's rumored the Envoy MEC is about to implode.

http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/re...t-implode.html


All of which begs the question (given what is known vs. unknown):

Who is still around 5-10 years from now, and who isn't?

DETSports

Haha If only there were a crystal ball in the airline industry...

ChristheCFI

Some may go through mergers, some may go bankrupt, but yes, we'll lose a lot of regionals unless they change their business model. Here's my list of survivors:

Cape Air
Compass Airlines
Corvus Airlines
Endeavor Air
Horizon Air
Island Air
Mesa Airlines
Peninsula Airways
Piedmont Airlines
Republic Airlines
Seaborne Airlines
SkyWest

Most of those left are either well-run, and/or wholly-owned, and/or serve a niche market, or are "too big to fail" and will re-work their business model.

snippercr

Lakes to be gone soon if that other thread on them is accurate

TheFly

You just never know, many thought Mesa would belly up & they came back. Still a chocolate covered turd, but they came back. Lakes on the other hand probably won't make it past summer.

aflyingtuba

RAH is facing a big attrition problem, epsecially on the S5 170 side. Mainline, Endeavor, and Shuttle 145s are picking up the slack in LGA. Cancellations for crew are averaging 30-40/day right now, and summer can only get worse. Reserves are maxed out (assuming your base has any next month, only 2 do), and lineholders are getting reassigned daily.

The company and union are promising a TA at the end of the month, and the rumors have it being far and above all other regionals. "BB wants to steal pilots to run the others into the ground".

That said, if the TA gets delayed, or worse, it doesn't live up to the hype and gets rejected, than FOs are likely to flee the sinking ship. If RAH can't hire or buyout pilots from somewhere soon, let the implosion begin.

Lawn

What about PSA? They aren't going anywhere.

JohnnyDingus

Whose PSA?


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AboveAndBeyond

Seaborne was going down fast last I heard. New hire classes were furloughed and many routes cancelled.

tom11011

The first three to go will be Great Lakes (by end of July this year), then Silver and Commutair (both by July 2016) in that order.

Republic and SkyWest will shrink at an alarming rate because they won't have crews to fly their airplanes- they cannot compete with wholly owneds as far as being able to offer any true benefit to choose them as a new hire. Not to mention there is no flow restriction to how many pilots can be hired away by the majors/lcc's. First we'll see the small airplanes depart. Next, each will have to decide on a single mainline partner as they will not be able to effectively service more than one mainline partner at a level that is acceptable. Ultimately they will simply become aircraft leasing companies. Another possibility is they become competition flying their own routes.

In about 3 years, the regional airline model will have shrunk to probably 10,000 pilots. At this point, from a cost perspective, it simply makes more sense to bring this flying back in house at mainline.

Envoy is a particular interesting enigma. Who knows what game is being played out there. We all know that from a business perspective it makes no sense to shrink Envoy to the point where their labor costs are astronomical, but that is precisely what is playing out right now with 300 senior folk not wanting to go anywhere and hover at the top of the pay scale. Does AA want to shrink them out of business or ?? Hard to know the end game with Envoy.