All of the calculations were made from the FAA Airmen Statistics site, so feel free to double check the math:
U.S. Civil Airmen Statistics
At the end of 2010, there were 137,668 airplane ATPs out there. From those ATP rated pilots at the end of 2010, broken down by age, the following amounts will turn 65 and be out of the 121 game in:
2015 - 27,468
2020 - 19,044
2025 - 24,650
Looking at the trend for 2009 and 2010, roughly 3,000 new airplane ATPs were issued each year. Its a 50% drop from 2008 to 2009. So, let us add in 15,000 for each five year span. That would result in a gain/loss of ATPs of:
2015 - loss of 12,468
2020 - loss of 4,044
2025 - loss of 9,650
That brings us down to 26,162 fewer ATP airplane pilots, or a 19% total loss to 2025.
I havent found stats compared to who will not even go for 121 and stay 135, 91, or not fly for a profession. Let us also keep in mind that airlines want to increase activity a couple percentage points every year. And besides, these numbers only go out to 2025.
So the question posed yet again...does this make a pilot shortage once 1500 becomes law a little more viable?