All of the calculations were made from the FAA Airmen Statistics site, so feel free to double check the math:
U.S. Civil Airmen Statistics

At the end of 2010, there were 137,668 airplane ATPs out there. From those ATP rated pilots at the end of 2010, broken down by age, the following amounts will turn 65 and be out of the 121 game in:
2015 - 27,468
2020 - 19,044
2025 - 24,650

Looking at the trend for 2009 and 2010, roughly 3,000 new airplane ATPs were issued each year. Its a 50% drop from 2008 to 2009. So, let us add in 15,000 for each five year span. That would result in a gain/loss of ATPs of:
2015 - loss of 12,468
2020 - loss of 4,044
2025 - loss of 9,650

That brings us down to 26,162 fewer ATP airplane pilots, or a 19% total loss to 2025.

I havent found stats compared to who will not even go for 121 and stay 135, 91, or not fly for a profession. Let us also keep in mind that airlines want to increase activity a couple percentage points every year. And besides, these numbers only go out to 2025.

So the question posed yet again...does this make a pilot shortage once 1500 becomes law a little more viable?

 

The stats are definatley compelling. Age 65 coming up is the biggest thing, however the only "shortage" I see looming is for the regional FO market. People have gotten wise to the prospect of dropping $150K on training for a $25K/year job and no one is buying the propaganda anymore from the pilot factories of fast up grades, immediate moves to the majors, etc. The 1500 hour rule and the proposed crew rest rules requirements throw fuel on that fire.

As far as the majors supply of pilots, I don't see it being a problem for a long long time. The regionals are full of guys with a bazillion RJ hours, and the first real wave of military guys eligible to get out (those that rushed the doors in 2001-2003) are going to be eligible to leave active duty in the next 2-3 years.

 

Beg to differ. Although your last points of crew rest are game changers, much of the game WON'T change.

Pilots have very short memories, and suffer from cyclical amnesia.

The usual suspects will use the stats in this thread to do the usual sales job. Something along the lines of "Don't worry about the 25k year first year pay/150K loan, with the shortage of pilots you'll be on a major airline paycheck withing 2-3 years" blah blah blah.

 

Kit Darby was right, there's going to be a pilot shortage!

Seriously though, the "profession" isn't what it used to be, not by a long shot. Airlines will have to raise the bar if they expect to attract (sane) new pilot starts.

 

Factor in a Military winddown and you return to square one. Wash, rinse, repeat.
Anyone seen this before?

 

Yes I have. Both pre 9/11 as well as in the last "hiring boom".

Thank you for seeing what I was getting at.

 

All true statements, however the long pole in this tent is the bold statement. There river of cash to borrow that was readily available in the 90's through about 2006 is gone. Banks are wise the the risk these days. Even more so I would say upcoming wannabe's. However if someone DOES find that $150K loan to finance an RJ job, they didn't to their homework and deserve the result.

 

When I see a stat about a lack of atp's being issued that doesn't really equate to less pilots training. I think very few people go out and get their own atp especially in the 121 world. To me it just saying total career stagnation because no one is upgrading. As soon as people start retiring and the need for upgrading people to captain starts happening then more atp's will be issued as those people upgrade. I feel that number means nothing when trying to establish pilot supply.

 

Again, beg to differ. Economy turns around, the banks will again (foolishly) lend out money. The wannabe's as you call them will AGAIN (foolishly) borrow money thanks in part to the snow job that the marketing people put on them.

Jungle added a good point. When the military guys start coming up on their commitments ending, and they start talking to their buddies who left in 07-08 for DAL and are telling them how great it is compared to the military, and how much they make now on 4th-5th year pay, as well as the guys getting hired now at FedEx and SW that will be on 2nd-3rd year pay, it's a no brainer.

"Wash, rinse, repeat. Anyone seen this before?"

Again, YES, we have. It's all part of the circle of life for an airline pilot career. Sure, maybe there's different clowns involved, but it'll STILL be the same circus.

And if that military guy separates and goes to work for the paltry first year wages a major offers, and unfortunately gets furloughed with no hope of recall didn't do their homework EITHER, and deserves the result.