I am going to throw in a couple of unconnected comments to points raised by others. But please let me start by pointing out that once upon a time I was also a 250 hour pilot. And then latter a 500 hour pilot. And so on. Been there. Have fond memories.

First there is the issue of the worth of a CFI. Every bit of experience is helpful, but we can not all do it all. Smart pilots understand this and try to learn from others with different sets of experiences (idiots stroke their ego by looking down on other backgrounds). In the case of the CFI in a C-150, he has learned to think for himself, to be wary of all things and most importantly to get inside the mind of the other pilot. The latter is no small skill, and as I work in a heavy jet with a lot of other old farts it is pretty easy to tell who has some instructing in their background and who does not.

Next I offer a set of thought experiments. Take a group of 10 pilots. We will give them certain scenarios to manage at different points in their career, using 500 hours, 1500 hours and 5,000 hours. Let’s put them in the right seat of a 121 operation in the United States.

The basic divert. ORD is heading down the tubes, there is only so much fuel to hold and the alternate is not that great. At what point are they going to better manage the situation and support the Captain? 500? 1500? 5000?

Approaching an outlying airport in winter weather. The runway is plowed full length and 50’ either side of centerline. The temperature is in the low 20s and the wind is across the runway at 15 knots. How many of the pilots are going to sense the trap at different points in their career? One thing is certain, the odds get better as the experience bucket gets filled.

And of course there is basic radar interpretation. Hint here -- if you just “avoid the red” you should seek some training. But moving on, who is going to be better able to pick the “kill me” from the rain showers? The 500 hour guy, the 1500 hour guy or the 5,000 hour guy? This is actually a very complicated subject, since the same radar return can mean very different things depending on geographical location, altitude and overall weather conditions.

Finally, anyone who does not think that some experience towing would have kept Renslow from doing the wrong thing in BUF has never towed. That is just a little vent that I needed to get off my chest.