Originally Posted by
Mason32
if you're as good a pilot as an analyst, do us a favor... don't return to flying.
lets assume for a moment that all the majors will be hiring in huge numbers starting over the next year or two.... then lets assume that the majority of these new hires are going to come from the regionals... and most - but not all - of them from the left seat at the regionals.
Now, every regional is going to have tons of guys bailing for greener pastures.... which means the new guys will all be moving up that much sooner... except, at Eagle guys will also be moving on up to AA as well as bailing for other carriers... so, it stands to reason more guys will be leaving from Eagle than from say TSA or PNCL simply due to the extra opportunities....
all of which means the new kids get into the left seat faster at Eagle than anyplace else.... get their turbine PIC sooner and can then bail for a major sooner than the next guy.... or, if they choose... they can sit back being a senior CA in just a few short years and wait for a walk on job at AA without jumping through any hoops as a backup plan.
One could say the same to you considering the above "analysis".
-The majors retirement or growth schedules will not produce "huge" hiring numbers for several more years. By then Eagle could be half (or even less) then its current size.
-The transfer agreement for Eagle pilots to AA is modest at best, in addition to the fact that the language (and hiring agreement) is filled with holes and ambiguity that favors AMR and an ability to nix the entire thing down the road.
-AMR has stated the primary reason for divesting Eagle is to obtain cheaper feed. This will be done through competition via whipsawing several carriers against each other. That means even if Eagle stays an AA feeder for 9 years, they be seeing much of their current flying going to others. Eagle's long-term viability requires that it get contracts for feeding other majors beside AA, which considering 80% of their fleet are economic dinosaurs that can't compete revenue wise with carriers already flying for other majors, makes it also likely that Eagle will actually be shrinking rapidly. This is likely to result in LESS captains positions, as opposed to more as shrinkage equals or exceeds captain attrition to AA and/or competitive carriers.
Before you crack return shots off at others because you believe their shooting aim to be poor, you should examine your own wild gunplay for flaws first.