FTB,

If (big IF) unions were to agree to outsource this jet, it would be during a time when rosy predictions provide assurance that no one would be harmed by the deal. Attrition provides some wiggle room there.

It is not in an union's interest to predict a lousy economy, so by nature, union predictions tend to be "best case" scenarios. Unfortunately unions' rosy predictions fail to contemplate the sort of downturn that provides a real world stress test on contractual labor protective provisions. Hence the "oops, we did not see that coming and it is not our fault" cycle. I for one, hope that cycle has been broken.

The outsider cognoscenti are about evenly split on what unions will do with this decision. About half of us think the union learned a lesson from the last decade (and is in fear of being voted off the property if they trade away another job) about half feel that the economic insistence on higher pay will push the union to explore what kind of deals it might make to satisfy that need.

The numbers tell us there just is not the revenue in the airline business that there needs to be for significant cost increases to be absorbed without risking the viability of the business. I'm not even sure there's any cost savings with outsourcing (even with outfits like GoJets). The margins are getting so tight on the regional flying that my crystal ball gets cloudy, particularly if Delta can get these jets on the property as "cash flow accretive."

Make no mistake about it. Pilots are a cost that management (all of them) want to reduce. Delta management "loves us" because they respect our bargaining agent. Without that "love" there is scant little difference in the way the bean counters look at us, or GoJets pilots. We're just the meat servo that moves the metal.